Beware of "hot hands" when making decisions
(Source: Beijing Daily 2017-2-20）
Scientific decision-making is the basic condition for management, and errors in decision-making may have very serious consequences. In practice, many people often mistakenly infer that the entire system has such characteristics based on the appearance of representative characteristics. If the most important information that affects decision-making happens to be omitted, serious bias will result.
Let’s make a hypothesis. If you are the director of the human resources department and you want to interview five people, and the interview result is that the first four are not satisfied, then what is the possibility that the last one will be satisfied? At w88 live casino time, you can easily think that the first four people are not qualified, and there is a high possibility that the last one will be qualified. w88 live casino leads to the representativeness bias“Gambler’s Fallacy”AND“Hot hand phenomenon”。
The direct consequence of representativeness bias is that people admit it“Gambler’s Fallacy”。“Gambler’s Fallacy”Believe that: after a series of bad luck, there must be a good result, and a series of independent events with the same result must be followed by an opposite result. In fact, w88 live casino violates the law that independent events do not affect each other.
However, people often violate w88 live casino rule unconsciously. It is precisely because people unconsciously ignore the law of probability that independent events do not affect each other that they will have“Gambler’s Fallacy”. Explanation“Gambler’s Fallacy”Analysis of accidental misunderstandings can be applied. Kahneman and Tversky1974Year pointed out: People usually regard accidental events as a self-correcting process. In w88 live casino process, deviations in one direction will cause deviations in the opposite direction to restore balance. In fact, the deviation is not corrected by accidental process, but gradually“Dilution”'s.
“Gambler’s Fallacy”Another image description is Thomas·In basketball studied by Gilovich et al.“Hot hand phenomenon”or“Smooth throw”Situation. w88 live casino is another situation where people misinterpret chance in exactly the opposite direction. When a player makes consecutive shots4After hitting the ball, is he more likely to hit the next ball than usual? Lower? Still the same? The general answer is higher. It is believed that in a basketball game, after a player with good strokes makes consecutive hits, his hit rate on the next shot is greater than his hit rate on the next shot after missing one. On the court, pass the ball“Hot hands”'s player is often a popular choice, and the opponent will also try to limit“Hot hands”'s players. However, the statistical results of large sample data show that there is no such rule. on the basketball court“Hot hand phenomenon”, is nothing more than a memory bias in psychology, because consecutive hits or misses are easier to remember than alternating hits or misses, so observers will overestimate the correlation between consecutive shots. w88 live casino conclusion is very inconsistent with people's feelings and is often difficult to accept.
Of course,“Hot hands”The problem is not exactly the same as tossing a coin. Tossing a coin is a completely random event and is independent each time. But shooting is a skill, not a random event, and is affected by emotion. Illusion on the basketball court“Hot hand phenomenon”It will also affect managers’ decisions. In fact, just like on the basketball court, the actual management process does not actually exist“Hot hand phenomenon”. If a person has been consistently correct or profitable, but w88 live casino is not the result of careful consideration, rational analysis, and strict compliance with decision-making disciplines, but rather luck, then he or she should reduce the frequency of decision-making or stop trading appropriately. In addition, even if you are consecutively correct under the condition of rational thinking, you should stop in moderation, because at w88 live casino time, people's emotions will change in some way, and emotions can easily make people make mistakes in judgment, because the emotions generated by consecutive moves can easily get carried away and overconfident, which makes them become casual and imprecise, leading to wrong decisions.
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