Beware of "hand heat phenomenon" when making decisions

(Source: Beijing Daily 2017-2-20）

Scientific decision-making is a basic condition for management, and decision-making errors may have very serious consequences. In practice, many people often mistakenly infer that the overall performance has such characteristics based on the appearance of representative characteristics. If the most important information affecting w88 casino gamesdecision-making is missed, it will lead to serious errors.

Let's make an assumption. If you are the supervisor of a human resources department and have to interview five people, and the interview result is that the first four are not satisfied, then how likely is the last one to be satisfied? At this time, it is easy to think that the first four people are not qualified, and the last one is likely to pass.“Gambling Absurdity”与“Hand heat phenomenon”。

The direct consequence of representative bias is that people recognize“Gambling Absurdity”。“Gambling Absurdity”Thinks: After a series of bad luck, good results will inevitably occur, and a series of independent events with the same results will inevitably follow an opposite result. In fact, this violates the law that independent events do w88 online live casinonot affect each other.

However, people often violate this law unconsciously. It is precisely because people unconsciously ignore the law of independent events that do not affect each other in the law of probability that there will be“Gambling Absurdity”. explain“Gambling Absurdity”Analysis of contingency misunderstandings can be used. Kaneman and Twelsky1974pointed out that people usually regard accidental events as a process of self-correction. The deviation in one direction in this process will cause deviation in the opposite direction to restore balance. In fact, deviation is not corrected with accidental processes, but gradually“Dilution”.

“Gambling Absurdity”is Thomas·In basketball researched by Gilovic et al.“Hand heat phenomenon”或“So easy to draw”Scenario. This is in another situation where people misinterpret contingencies from completely opposite directions.4After the ball, is he more likely to make the next shot than usual? Lower?“Hand Hot”players are often a common choice, and the opponent will also try to limit“Hand Hot”player. However, the statistical results of large samples show that such a rule does not exist.“Hand heat phenomenon”is just a psychological memory bias. Because continuous hits or misses are easier to remember than alternating hits or misses, observers will overestimate the correlation between continuous shots. This conclusion is very inconsistent with people's feelings and is often difficult to accept.

Of course,“Hand Hot”The problem is not exactly the same as throwing a coin. Sending a coin is w88 mobilea completely random event, and each time it is independent. But shooting is a technique, not a random event, and it is affected by emotions.“Hand heat phenomenon”will also affect managers' decisions. In fact, just like on the basketball court, the actual management process does not actually exist“Hand heat phenomenon”. If a person keeps making continuous and correct hand or continuous profit, but this is not the result of his careful consideration, rational analysis, strict compliance with decision-making discipline, but the result of his/her decision-making frequency, or stop moderately

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