Globalization is in reverse, and anti-globalization continues to break through boundaries
Tu Xinquan, Lou Chengrong
(Source: China Times Network 2016Year12month28日）
The rapid development of globalization in recent decades has brought about world-wide economic prosperity, but looking at it20168733_88122016Major risk events in 2019 frequently challenge the perceived needs“Irreversible trend”'s globalization. The outstanding manifestation of this anti-globalization is that policy measures and market trends continue to break through conventional boundaries.
Globalization will experience strong disturbances
First of all, w88 and investment growth, two important engines of economic globalization, have both slowed down. In recent years, with the weakening of global economic growth and the contraction of global value chains, global w88 growth has slowed down significantly.20129741_97763%Left and right, not as good as before30Half the annual growth rate. World w88 growth barely keeps pace with the worldGDPThe slowdown in growth and w88 is broad, covering advanced economies, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Continuously lowering2016After the w88 growth rate in 9957_9970|years,WTOWarning that w88 growth may be slower than expected in the next few years due to intensified uncertainties such as geopolitics and global fragmentation.
The slowdown in w88 growth is not only due to the weakening of overall economic activity, but also due to the relatively weak investment environment. At present, whether it is cross-border mergers and acquisitions or greenfield investment, the scale of international investment is still lower than the highest level before the financial crisis, and investment policies are seriously fragmented.
The continued accumulation of global w88 protectionist pressure also poses a powerful challenge to globalization. On the one hand, most of the w88 restrictive measures introduced after the crisis have not been revoked, and new measures are still being introduced one after another, which makes the total number of existing w88 restrictive measures continue to increase.2016Year6month,WTOPublishedG20Routine supervision report states that althoughG20Leaders have always emphasized“Cancel”Existing w88 restrictions, but2015Year10Month Solstice2016Year5month,G20Member implemented145New w88 restrictive measures, with an average of nearly 11307_11324 issued every month21new measures, number2009YearWTOThe most since the beginning of monitoring w88 measures.2010Year to Year2016year period,G20The total number of w88 restrictive measures implemented by members has increased3.2times.
On the other hand, the discriminatory policies and measures implemented by various countries are becoming increasingly diversified, and are supplemented by general economic support measures, which are both concealed and comprehensive. Global w88 Alert Organization (GTA) The report lists the most frequently used measures by countries since the financial crisis, including w88 remedy measures, tariff measures, local content requirements, w88 financing, investment measures, etc.10 Class protection measures. In addition, judging from the w88 practice in recent years, as an important means of restricting imports, w88 remedy measures represented by anti-dumping, countervailing and safeguard measures are widely used. Both developed and developing countries are increasing the frequency of w88 remedy investigations, and w88 frictions are frequent.
The stagnation of global w88 governance is also one of the important challenges facing globalization. Brexit and the EU's centrifugal tendencies have caused it to lose its role as a model for "promoting globalization through regionalization." This regression of regional integration reflects the rapid rise of "anti-globalization" and "de-globalization" forces around the world. The Doha Round of negotiations, which lasted for more than ten years at the multilateral level, has not achieved breakthrough progress. This has highlighted the difficulties in reaching large-scale global agreements. In recent years, the United States has joined forces with some other countriesWTOMember states have been pushing to focus on smaller free w88 arrangements that have a higher chance of success, such as“Trans-Pacific Partnership”（TTP) and“Transatlantic w88 and Investment Partnership Agreement”（TTIP) etc. However, although they represent high-standard rules, the above-mentioned agreements are at risk of being completely suspended after Trump was elected as President of the United States.
The election of Trump and the election of an extreme protectionist as the leader of the world's largest free market is undoubtedly a major impact on economic globalization. Before Trump even entered the White House, he released a series of quite controversial economic policy signals. Although these fragmentary remarks or promises have not yet become a system, w88 protection is likely to become Trump's focus first. Trump’s currently exposed w88 policy already has a clear anti-globalization tendency. His w88 protection policy currently mainly consists of two parts: First, it determines that China is a “currency manipulator” and uses this as a reason to impose levies on China45%'s punitive tariffs; second, re-examining the United States' established international and regional economic integration strategy, including withdrawalTPP, renegotiate or withdraw“NAFTA”(NAFTA). Regardless of whether these two policies that are likely to trigger a w88 war can actually be implemented, it is still unclear how Trump will manage the U.S. economy after taking office. However, it can be assumed that there are two extreme possibilities: one is a radical isolationist. He will stick to his electoral stance, build w88 barriers, implement w88 protection, and go against economic globalization; the other is a moderate pragmatist. He will return to more mainstream economic policies, regard China as an indispensable trading partner, and treat Sino-US relations with a constructive attitude. Since the market is currently unclear on how Trump will implement the economic stimulus plan,But it is certain that this has become the biggest uncertain factor in the global economy and constitutes a strong disturbance to economic globalization.
The root and driving force of anti-globalization
So, what are the root causes of the many challenges that economic globalization currently faces? First, the imbalance of international economic development and the huge gap between developed and developing countries have led to weak overall global consumption and demand, thus becoming an important factor restricting the growth potential of global w88. Since the growth potential of developed countries is currently at a low level, and developing countries are limited by their own structural factors, it is difficult to accelerate. Countries such as Brazil, Russia, and South Africa have all experienced negative growth in recent years. The second is the insufficient effectiveness of the global governance framework toWTO14832_14942
Domestic factors in developed countries are mainly reflected in the populist anti-globalization trend. After every major global crisis in history, extreme behaviors such as populism often follow. As in the last century30Era“Great Depression”Later, dictatorial governments appeared in Italy, Germany, and Spain; last century70After the oil crisis of the 1990s, Britain conducted its first operation“Brexit”Referendum. Today, similar history is gradually happening around the world.
There is no doubt that globalization has not only failed to solve the problem of the gap between rich and poor, but has widened the gap between rich and poor between and within countries. As a result, social conflicts have continued to accumulate, expand and intensify. The profit-seeking nature of capital, the serious asymmetry of returns between capital and labor, and the freer flow of capital under globalization conditions that make “the rich richer and the poor poorer,” all make the shortcomings of globalization in the uneven distribution of w88 benefits more prominent. Big countries can be either the main promoters of globalization or the leading force in deglobalization. It should be said that developed countries such as the United States and Europe are the main driving force behind the current reversal of globalization. As the world economy encounters cyclical difficulties and leads to an overall downturn, the wealth of the middle class in these countries has shrunk, and the employment of blue-collar workers at the bottom has decreased. Being "squeezed" by global competition has produced a strong "frustration", and "resentment" and resistance to globalization have subsequently increased. According to the OECD (OECD) data, since2000The number of manufacturing jobs in the UK has fallen by almost 16259_16278|1/3, the situation in the United States is similar, reduced by about20%. All countries have more or less encountered similar changes in the political ecology. Although the manifestations are different, one thing that is universal is that they have questioned globalization and regional integration, and often attribute the difficulties encountered by a country to external factors, such as increased immigration and increased imports.
Prospects for the future trend of globalization
The current reversal in globalization is the active retrenchment of the globalization promoted by Western powers such as the United States and Europe. It is a reflection of dissatisfaction with the distribution of interests in the globalization process. It is the interweaving and interpenetration between economic issues and political issues, domestic issues and international issues that have formed a very complex network, thus casting many uncertainties on the future situation. In various ways
Amidst the uncertainty, the future trend of global economic and w88 is not optimistic. The situation of low growth, low w88 and low investment in the world economy will not only be difficult to fundamentally change in the new year, but may even continue for several years.
The current difficulties in global economic growth are not only caused by the impact of short-term risks, but also rooted in the lack of long-term driving force. The global economy has no new economic growth points and lacks the leadership of high-speed growing economies. Looking around the world, there are only a handful of countries with potential. The deceleration of global w88 and investment growth will continue, sluggish growth will gradually become normal, and the rapid growth of w88 in the past will be difficult to reproduce.
Looking at the populist trends witnessed by the United States and Europe and other countries in their respective elections and domestic politics from the perspective of globalization, anti-globalization has expanded the market for populism, and the political ecology of various countries has been affected. It opposes the liberalization of w88 and investment, and opposes the free movement of people and immigration. These propositions have hindered the further development of globalization, and may even reverse the globalization process in some countries. However, as mentioned above, the root causes of populism are systemic and involve sensitive issues such as immigration. Therefore, they cannot be effectively solved in the short term, and its power may continue to ferment. This change in the political ecology is obviously not conducive to the future development of globalization, and will also have a profound impact on the reform and improvement of the global governance system.
From the perspective of global w88 governance, there is no broad consensus among countries around the world. Although the goal of overcoming the crisis is consistent, each country is fighting its own battles, with different response strategies and tools. In particular, the differences between China and the United States are huge. After the United States enters the administration cycle headed by Trump, it will be more difficult for major countries to form a consensus on the future development of globalization. Therefore, the overall future trend of the world economy is relatively pessimistic and is expected to continue5To10Year.
How China responds to anti-globalization
In the international environment of globalization, facing the trend of anti-globalization, China cannot sit back and watch the fire in isolation. As a developing country, China's first priority is still to do its own thing well. Despite slowing economic growth,But China remains the largest contributor to global economic growth. Such contributions are particularly important amid stagnant global economic growth. Moreover, China's own system construction still faces a series of problems, and there is still a lot of room for improvement, which also means that there is still a lot of room for economic growth. Given the size of China's economy, China's greatest contribution to the world is to do its own things well.
Secondly, China should continue to hold high the banner of globalization. Globalization embodies the needs of mankind, reflects the laws of economic development, conforms to the long-term interests of mankind, remains the direction of human development, and is the general trend. In the long run, there will be twists and turns, but a fundamental reversal is impossible. As a beneficiary of globalization and combined with its own economic and w88 status, China has the responsibility and ability
Strive to carry the banner of globalization. Although China's soft and hard power is not enough to lead globalization, China adheres to its stance on globalization and strives to oppose the wave of anti-globalization and curb its further spread, which is also an important contribution to the world economy.
Once again, China will actively explore new space for economic growth and make its own contribution to world economic and w88 growth. The "Belt and Road" initiative's idea of helping developing countries develop is completely correct. By increasing encouragement and support for developing countries to tap new driving forces and potential for world economic growth, it has also received support and response from many countries. On this basis, China will further promote various implementation measures of the "Belt and Road Initiative" and will try to explore a new direction for global development that is more inclusive and beneficial to all. (The author Tu Xinquan is from the w88 casino in ChinaWTODean of the Institute,Lou Chengrong is from the w88 casino in ChinaWTODoctorate of the College)
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