(Source: China Securities Network2016Year11month21日）

Author Hao Xuguang

Ignoring base rate information will lead to wrong judgments in w88 casino investment. In w88 casino investment, investors often make money in three years10I am attracted by such extreme examples. In fact, there are very few such cases, and one cannot judge the rise or fall based on just one feature. The application of all indicators in the w88 casino market is conditional. Regardless of changes in conditions, misjudgments will occur.

If you saw a person dressed like a migrant worker in a university cafeteria, would you judge whether he is a student or a migrant worker? Based on his characteristics like a migrant worker, it seems that he is a migrant worker, but this is on a university campus, and the possibility that he is a student is much higher. Human thinking easily emphasizes characteristics, and a person's characteristics are more likely to leave a deep impression on everyone's mind. When extracting information, it is often easy to overlook the possibility of judgment. These phenomena are often encountered in daily life. The author has done thousands of tests in class, and the result is,70%The above subjects thought they were more likely to be migrant workers, but in fact they were more likely to be students.

Representative bias（Representative Heuristic Bias）, is the way people take shortcuts when thinking and judging problems. Under uncertain conditions, they will subconsciously make corresponding judgments based on the "representative characteristics" of things, that is, typicality. In decision-making, it is manifested as generalizing from small parts and seeing big things from small things.

Using a certain characteristic of something to infer its overall category or attribution, the key is whether the essence can be grasped. There are many teachers who wear glasses, but if you see someone wearing glasses and judge that his profession is a teacher, the probability of error is extremely high, because there are many people wearing glasses in groups such as doctors and white-collar workers in technology companies. However, if it is inferred that the person has a bachelor's degree or above, the probability of being correct is higher.

According to Daniel Kahneman, the most influential psychologist today, representativeness bias causes people to be too fond of predicting unlikely events (low base rates), that is, to ignore the base rate. He gave an example. If you saw a man reading the New York Times on the New York subway, which situation would he be more consistent with?A.Have a doctorate degree;B.No college degree. Representational bias guides people’s choicesA, but actually selectBMore likely because there are more people on the New York subway without a college degree.

Representative bias causes people’s judgments to systematically violate probability rules and statistical principles, resulting in erroneous judgments. The most important aspect of this is ignoring the base rate (cardinality). Expressed in popular language, people only pay attention to the similarity between the description of the object of concern and typical characteristics, that is, typicality, but ignore the basic ratio.

The probability of an event occurring has preconditions, and the probabilities under different preconditions are greatly different. The probability of this precondition is called the "base rate"（Prior Probability）. But when making judgments in an uncertain environment, people often ignore the base rate. The direct consequence of representativeness bias is that it is insensitive to the ex ante probability of the result. In some cases, it often leads to people's base rate fallacy（Base-Rate Fallacy）, that is, when estimating the probability of an event, the relative frequency of the event is often ignored, and excessive emphasis is placed on a certain piece or some specific information, instead of combining the base rate ratio with the specific information.

for example, somethingCatAThe probability under the condition is80%,atBThe probability under the condition is30%, someone judged to haveAOccurs under conditionsC20373_20381BUnder conditionsCproduces a representative error. For example: there are people who wear glasses with a college degree or above70%, conversely, when you see someone wearing glasses, what is the probability of inferring that he has a college education? Possibly higher than70%,may also be lower than70%, the probability depends on the prerequisites, that is, two base rates. One is the ratio of university education to the overall population of society, which is calledA, one is the proportion of people wearing glasses in the population, calledB. The calculation formula is:(A×70%)/B. Obviously, ifAGreater thanB,The accuracy of the judgment is higher than70%, for example,A=20%,B=15%,Then the judgment accuracy is93.3%. On the contrary, ifALess thanB,The judgment accuracy is lower than70%, for example:A=20%,B=30%,Then the judgment accuracy is46.7%。

The base rate is constantly changing with the times. When the author was in college197828544_285611%, and the rate of wearing glasses among college students is approximately70%. At that time, if you saw someone wearing glasses on the street, the probability of correctly inferring that they were from a university was very low. Now, if you see someone wearing glasses on the street, the probability of inferring that they have a college education is very high.

The conditional probability of something remains unchanged, but the probability of the basic conditions changes, and the accuracy of the inference varies greatly. The application of all indicators in the w88 casino market is conditional. If conditions change regardless of conditions, it will lead to misjudgment. When there is no interference from other information, generally people can understand and use the base rate to make judgments. However, the base rate is often ignored when there is interference from other descriptive information.

In w88 casino investment, investors often make money in three years10Attracted by such extreme examples. In fact, there are very few such cases. Investors must consider the base rate of w88 casino investment and cannot judge the rise or fall based on just one characteristic. Don't just think about your past success rate. We must also be wary of failure and keep in mind the probability of failure.

According to1993New Year's Eve2012End of the Year Agreement4600According to the trading data statistics of 32609_32670| trading days, compared with the world's major w88 casino markets, the Shanghai and Shenzhen w88 casino markets are among the best in terms of huge fluctuations and the ratio of huge declines to rises. Vertical comparison, the Shanghai and Shenzhen w88 casino markets opened to2012End of the year,20Years18Rise and fall sharply. to2008End of the year, only5It is in the rising stage in the year and two months, less than the total trading time30%;And the time in the declining stage is as long as12Year zero10months, accounting for the total transaction time

The w88 casino market is more likely to make profits when the following three major situations occur: the macro economy is improving, the market has abundant funds, and the index has been oversold for a long time. The first situation is easy to understand. The w88 casino market cannot be separated from the influence of the macro economy. When the overall economic situation improves, the base rate of the number of profitable listed companies will increase. From the normal performance-driven laws and perspectives, the possibility of a bull market is high. Therefore, in a bull market where the economy is improving and performance is driven, choose to hold shares and do not need to operate frequently. On the contrary, in an economic downturn, the base rate of the number of profitable listed companies becomes smaller. At this time, it is time to hold on to the currency and wait and see. If it is oversold for a long time, there will naturally be a rebound, but we cannot fantasize about a long-term bull market. At this time, we have to move in and out quickly.

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