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(Source: "International Herald"2016Year7month15日）

Recently, the British government released an investigation report on the w88 online live casino War in an attempt to draw a conclusion on this unjust war. However, this belated report cannot repair the devastating damage caused by the war to the political and security ecology of w88 online live casino and the Middle East. Today, the devastated w88 online live casino and the war-torn Middle East have become the best footnotes to this war. Back then, Britain and the United States were like bulls breaking into a china shop, rash, reckless and reckless. The war opened a "Pandora's box", causing regional geopolitical balance to be broken, security dilemmas to intensify, and proxy wars to be staged everywhere. Extremism and terrorism caused by political chaos are lingering over the Middle East like ghosts, and their claws extend around the world.

The war overthrew Saddam and Western-style democracy destroyed w88 online live casino

Kissinger once said, "w88 online live casino has never been a country in the historical sense." This typical "man-made country" has a low starting point in the nation-building process, and sub-national units such as sects, ethnic groups and tribes have weakened national identity. During Saddam's rule, ethnic and sectarian contradictions were covered up by authoritarian politics. These inherent contradictions gradually surfaced in the so-called "democratization" process promoted by the United States.

After the war, the United States launched two political arrangements that could change the fate of w88 online live casino: one is to implement "decentralized democracy" based on ethnicity and sect; the other is "de-Baathification", that is, expelling former Ba'ath party officials from the government through legislation and disbanding the army of the former regime. These two political arrangements transformed the country's political traditions. The Sunnis, who had been in power for a long time, were marginalized, while the Shiites took advantage of their numerical advantage to gain access to the Iraqi political arena.

Under the arrangement of the United States, w88 online live casino formed its government and parliament using a decentralization model based on ethnic and sectarian population proportions. The president is a Kurd, the prime minister is a Shia Muslim, and the speaker of the parliament is a Sunni Muslim. This "mosaic democracy" seems fair, but it strengthens national and sectarian consciousness and institutionalizes and perpetuates ethnic divisions. A "democracy" in which Shiites can win every election by virtue of their demographic advantage, while Sunnis will never succeed, is undoubtedly bad. In the post-war liquidation, not only senior Baath Party officials were expelled from the government, but also some low-level officials. After the Shiites secured their positions of power, they began to intensify their efforts to squeeze the already narrow political space of the Sunnis. Even the Sunni political leader and former Iraqi Vice President Hashemi was not spared and was forced to go into exile. The Iraqi army and police forces have also been "Shiite" and often involved in sectarian conflicts. Another major change brought about by the war is the realization of the status of the "independent kingdom" in the Kurdish region. The Kurds are well aware of the difficulties in establishing an independent country, so they seek de facto independence, even going so far as to violate the constitution and seize oil and other interests.

The Americans’ “top-level design” laid the foundation for inter-ethnic and sectarian conflicts in w88 online live casino. w88 online live casino has not yet been able to escape the vicious cycle of sectarian rivalry and social radicalization. Explosions have occurred all over the country, the government has been paralyzed, the military has been disorganized, sectarian armed forces are running rampant, and terrorist organizations have become the norm.

The unbalanced pattern in the Middle East

The w88 online live casino War not only changed the political ecology of w88 online live casino, it also directly led to changes in the geopolitical environment of the Gulf and even the Middle East, breaking the balance of power between the Gulf Arab countries and Iran. Saddam Hussein's regime was overthrown, and Iran's most powerful opponent no longer existed. After the war, Shias came to power in w88 online live casino, and Iran gained unprecedented influence over w88 online live casino's internal affairs.

The rise of Iran is mainly achieved through the expansion of Shiites, as well as the "Iran-Hezbollah-Hamas" triangle relationship and the alliance between Iran and Syria, which makes Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries restless.2004Year12In August, King Abdullah II of Jordan said, “The rise of the ‘Shiite Crescent’ of Iran-w88 online live casino-Syria-Lebanon Hezbollah is a destabilizing factor for the entire region.”

After the Arab upheaval, the secret war between the Sunni camp headed by Saudi Arabia and the Shia camp headed by Iran intensified. The two sides launched fierce competition in Bahrain, Syria, Yemen and other countries. Over the past few years, the Iranian side has clearly gained the upper hand. Not only has it secured Syria, the bridgehead for penetration into the Arab world, but the "Shia Crescent" has almost turned from fiction into reality. After the Iran nuclear deal was reached, relations between the United States and Iran have eased, and Iran's rise has become even more unstoppable. On the contrary, Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries feel that their core interests have been betrayed by the United States, and face deep strategic anxiety in the face of Iran. Therefore, at the beginning of this year, Saudi Arabia executed Shia leader Nimr al-Nimr, which led to the outbreak of conflicts between the two countries, leading to the severance of diplomatic relations. The overt and covert struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran will be the main geopolitical contradiction in the region after the United States "fades out" of the Middle East.

The Middle East democratic transformation plan implemented in conjunction with the subversion of the regime by force has also changed the Middle East. The Bush administration believes that authoritarian politics in the Middle East is the breeding ground for terrorism and should promote democratization in the Middle East and eradicate terrorism. Not to mention whether this logic is valid, when Hamas won the Palestinian election, it had thwarted the United States' determination to promote democracy in the Middle East. However, the United States' "Greater Middle East Initiative" aimed at "transforming" Middle Eastern countries has, on the one hand, forced the Arab authoritarian regimes to relax their rule and expand political participation. On the other hand, it has played an important guiding role in blowing the "spring breeze" of "freedom" and "democracy" to the Arab people. After Obama came to power, he decided to withdraw troops from w88 online live casino and shrink from the Middle East. The United States' control over countries in the region and its desire to intervene have both declined. The United States adopted a pragmatic attitude towards the changes taking place in Egypt and other important allies in the Middle East. In this way, the "Arab Spring" came into being.

Extremism and terrorism take advantage of the chaos

Post-war w88 online live casino has become a fertile ground for the breeding of extremism and terrorism. The rise of "Islamic State" is a direct consequence of the United States' irresponsible Middle East policy. The United States' initial chaos in w88 online live casino and its abandonment directly led to the "Islamic State" extremist organization taking advantage of the chaos to grow.