When Premier Li Keqiang talked about the development of foreign w88 this year in the government work report, he did not put forward specific numerical indicators for w88 growth, but only stated that foreign w88 has stabilized and is improving;2016year1The overall monthly imports dropped significantly year-on-year, but the mainland’s imports from Hong Kong bucked the trend and surged108%, To this end, Professor Lu Jinyong conducted a thorough analysis of the prospects for foreign w88 development this year, foreign w88 data and false w88. Regarding the impact of exchange rate changes on foreign w88, Professor Lu Jinyong believes that "this is a normal phenomenon", "but we must pay attention, and we must take certain measures to control it." In terms of tax rates, Professor Lu Jinyong believes that China's overall tariffs are "generally reasonable," but "tariffs on some imported goods still need to be lowered," such as automobiles and luxury goods. Tariffs should be appropriately lowered. this year2At the beginning of the month, accounting for the whole worldGDP40%of12countries officially signedTPPAgreement, but China did not participate, Professor Lu Jinyong expressed his concernTPPWe must do the following three points. First, we must study carefullyTPPThe content of the agreement, secondly, must be continued domestically andTPPExperiments related to rules, third, you can consider starting to join at an appropriate timeTPP12481_12487

With the original advantages of my country's foreign w88 gradually disappearing, how to build new competitive advantages is a major and urgent practical issue. Professor Lu Jinyong pointed out that it is necessary to cultivate new competitive advantages from the aspects of cultivating "brand advantages", "technological advantages" and "structural advantages"; in addition, in future work, we must pay attention to the "combination of w88 and investment" and drive the export of my country's products and services through foreign investment. Regarding the value chain and industrial chain, Professor Lu Jinyong suggested that we should accelerate the construction of a global value chain and cross-border industrial chain led by Chinese enterprises. Only with a self-led value chain and industrial chain can we move to the mid-to-high end and improve our ability to control global industrial transfer and industrial layout.

The following is the interview transcript:

NetEase Finance: Hello Professor Lu, thank you for accepting our visit. We know that when Premier Li Keqiang talked about the development of foreign w88 this year in his government work report, he did not put forward specific numerical indicators, but only stated that foreign w88 has stabilized and is improving. How do you understand his formulation?

Lu Jinyong: In January and February this year, foreign w88 declined further, with a decline of 9.8% in January and a decline of nearly 20% in February. From this, it seems that from 2014 to 2015 to 2016, our overall foreign w88 situation was not very good. Under this circumstance, it is estimated that it is impossible to achieve any positive growth this year. You can't put forward a negative growth target, right? This is impossible to mention. Therefore, I think the prime minister's formulation is better and more appropriate. That is, first of all, we must stabilize the situation of our foreign w88 and prevent it from declining further. Then we strive to make it grow, so we call it maintaining stability and improving. I think this formulation is very appropriate.

NetEase Finance: Just now you mentioned that the overall decline in our foreign w88 data in January and February this year was relatively large. We also noticed a phenomenon that the overall imports in January dropped significantly year-on-year, but the mainland's imports from Hong Kong bucked the trend and surged by 108%. Some people believe that this will intensify the market's concerns about false w88. What do you think?

Lu Jinyong: I have also seen this report and paid attention to it. It should be said that we need to do some analysis on this phenomenon, which means that our entire foreign w88 has declined, and it should be said that our imports have declined even more. However, we have such a large proportion of growth in Hong Kong. I think most of it may be the false w88 you just mentioned. Sometimes we also call it export to domestic sales. There may be a kind of w88 and tax fraud involved. Even now, we have tax rebates for exports. In order to defraud the country’s export tax rebates, some companies create false exports. This thing may not have been exported, or it may have been exported to Hong Kong and then came back around a corner. In this case, it will be shown at the customs that this thing has been exported, and then the company can obtain an export tax rebate. If the company gets the export tax rebate, it will be a huge sum. So I think this may be an important reason.

Of course, it is also possible that we have some imports from Hong Kong, because we regard Hong Kong as an import and export region, and there may also be some imports. There may be some growth in these imports, but it will definitely not be this big. If such a large amount appears, there must be something wrong.

NetEase Finance: Some time ago, the depreciation of the RMB had a great impact on the market. How do you view the impact of exchange rate changes on foreign w88?

Lu Jinyong: At the beginning of this year, our RMB seemed to have depreciated a little more. It depreciated a little last year. I remember it was from 6.1, to around 6.3 last year, and this time it was around 6.5, and it depreciated some more. In total, our depreciation rate should be around 5% or 6%. From a broad perspective, this is the case. If a country opens its economy and internationalizes its currency, there will be certain fluctuations. This is a normal phenomenon. Of course, our currency has not yet been fully internationalized. We are in the process of advancing it, and we hope that it will be basically stable. But in the process of advancement, it should be normal for it to have some fluctuations in the process of internationalization. I don’t think there is any need to make a big fuss.

But we must pay attention, and we must take certain measures to control it. Because large fluctuations always have a negative impact on people's expectations, economic expectations, and exchange rate expectations. It should be said that there are certain fluctuations, which are still beneficial to our w88. For example, the slight depreciation of the RMB is beneficial to our exports. It should be said to be a promotion and an incentive for exports. Of course, the magnitude of the depreciation is not very large, and the effect on exports may not be particularly obvious. However, from a general trend and a theoretical point of view, depreciation is beneficial to our exports.

NetEase Finance: Do you think the current overall import tax rate is reasonable? Is there any room for further reduction?

Lu Jinyong: The import tax rate mainly talks about two aspects, one is the import tariff, and the other is what we call the import link adjustment tax. It should be said that after joining the WTO, our country's import tariffs have dropped significantly, and now we are roughly maintained at the average level of a developing country. The average level in developing countries is about 4% or 5%, in developed countries it is slightly lower, about 3%, and in developing countries it is 4% or 5%. Of course, this is an average level. Some varieties may have higher import tariffs, while others may have lower import tariffs. This is the case overall. If we talk about our overall tariff level, I personally think it should be generally reasonable and basically maintained at a reasonable level.

But this does not mean that it is necessary to make some adjustments to the tariffs on some of our imported products. For example, let’s give a few examples. For example, today’s cars, especially high-end cars, everyone knows that the price difference between domestic and foreign countries is relatively large, and the higher the price, the greater the difference. I have been to the United States several times in recent years. I pay more attention to analysis and comparison, and the difference is probably two to three times. For example, a car that costs 2 million in China may cost less than 1 million or 700,000 to 800,000 abroad, which is 1.5 times or 2 times the price. I think the tariff on cars can be adjusted appropriately. Now we have a parallel car import in the free w88 zone, which has slightly reduced the price of imported high-end cars, but it is still relatively high compared with foreign countries.

The second type of luxury goods, such as luxury goods. Nowadays, many people are saying that many of us travel abroad every year and how much money they spend. A lot of the money they spend is on luxury goods. Because the price difference at home and abroad is very large, I compared it and found that the price difference is also one to two times, and in some cases three to four times. Can it be lowered appropriately? Instead of asking him to go abroad to buy it and bring it back, it would be better to let him buy it in China and directly create sales for ourselves. How great. The related taxes also stay with us, so I think this is the second largest category.

NetEase Finance: In early February this year, 12 countries, accounting for 40% of the world's GDP, officially signed the TPP agreement, but China, the world's largest trading country, was not the only one to participate. How much impact do you think the TPP agreement will have on China, and how should it deal with it?

Lu Jinyong: The total GDP accounts for 40% of the world's total. This number is not small, close to half. Now that the TPP has been negotiated and the formal agreement has been signed, of course, each country will have to go through a domestic legal approval process. We think it should be said that in the next few years, the TPP may be implemented after completing the domestic legal procedures. I think we need to pay attention to several aspects. The first aspect is that we need to study the TPP carefully. When we study it, the focus is not on the size of its entire w88, which countries have participated in it, which countries want to participate, and the size of its entire GDP. This is something we need to understand, but it is not our focus. I think the first issue we need to focus on is the content of the TPP agreement. There are roughly 30 chapters and many clauses. Now they have been announced. We need to study this and study its contents.

Now it seems that the first characteristic is that the content is rich, and the second characteristic is that the requirements are relatively high. The rich content is worthy of study, and the relatively high requirements are also worthy of study. Because we need to take a look at what this high-version, high-standard free w88 agreement, or free w88 area, actually covers, and how advanced it is, because it is a direction for future development, a direction for the development of international economic and w88 rules, and a direction for the development of future free w88 areas and free w88 agreements, so we have to study it carefully. This is the first point.

Second point, I think our domestic related experiments will continue to advance. Why do we establish pilot free w88 zones in Shanghai, Tianjin, Fujian and Guangdong? From a broad perspective, we are mainly testing two contents. One content is some policies to be launched in the future domestic reform and opening up. We must first test, and after the test is completed, we will summarize the experience, summarize some replicable experience, and promote it nationwide. Another big goal is that we want to experiment with some new international w88 and international economic rules in this free w88 pilot zone. We need to experiment with some rules for high-standard and high-version free w88 zones in the future.

NetEase Finance: This year is the first year of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”. Since this year, 21 provinces have applied to establish free w88 zones. What do you think are the characteristics of the new round of free w88 zones?

Lu Jinyong: I personally think it is possible that we will increase the number of pilot free w88 zones. This is what we usually call the third batch. I think the third batch of free w88 pilot zones may have several characteristics. One of the geographical choices is that I think it may be mainly in the central and western regions, because the first and second batches are mainly in the coastal areas. The third batch does not mean that the coastal areas have never been there. There may still be coastal areas, but I think the focus or the majority may be in the central and western regions.

Why? Because our central and western regions also need to establish free w88 pilot zones. First, the next stage of reform and opening up in our central and western regions needs a starting point and a driving force. The establishment of free w88 pilot zones is a starting point or a driving force for the new round of reform and opening up in our central and western regions. This is also one of the reasons why so many provinces are so active. They have seen that the establishment of pilot free w88 zones is indeed a good thing, it does have an effect, and it can indeed bring our local reform and opening up to a new stage and a new climax.

Second, our central and western regions are a region covered by the Belt and Road Initiative. The "Belt and Road" initiative is a big strategy for our country's external development in the future, or sometimes we call it creativity, a big idea and a big strategy. This will last for several years. The central and western regions are its main coverage areas. In order to promote the Belt and Road Initiative and speed up its implementation

NetEase Finance: Although the country has taken many measures, we still see that it cannot stop the decline of foreign w88. Do you think the original advantages of foreign w88 still exist, and how to build new competitiveness?

Lu Jinyong: As we said earlier, appearance has declined a bit since 2014, but it has also increased, but the rate of increase is very low. By 2015, it dropped by 8%, and this year it has been declining by 10% or more. I think there are several reasons: The first reason is that the global economy is not doing well. In 2015, the entire international w88, both imports and exports, declined. The global economy is not doing well and global w88 is declining. China cannot be unaffected at all.

The second reason, I think, is also related to our domestic economy, because our domestic economy is now under great downward pressure, which also affects our entire imports and exports. This is the second reason. The third reason is the collapse in commodity prices. There is a word now called cliff-like decline, which means a straight line, a straight line falling. Bulk commodities are an important type of commodities imported by our country. It turns out that our import volume in this area is large, such as oil, iron ore, and other mineral products. Our import volume is relatively large. The import volume has reached, and the amount in the past was relatively high, so our import volume is relatively large, and our entire w88 volume is relatively large, and sometimes the growth rate of w88 may even be relatively high.

Another reason is that objectively speaking, the competitiveness of our country’s foreign w88 has still declined compared to the past. What causes it? I think it is mainly due to the increase in comprehensive business costs. Comprehensive business costs include all aspects, including labor costs, which have increased; including logistics costs, which have increased; including environmental protection costs, which have changed; including production costs, including the entire transaction cost. It is the sum of several aspects, and comprehensive business costs have increased. After the price rises, certain types of products produced in China are no longer as competitive as before. Then they may give you less of the order, or transfer the order.

The old advantages are gone, it is not scary, there are rules, we must speed up the cultivation of new advantages. Where are your new strengths, and can they be cultivated? Can our foreign w88 increase if we cultivate it? Can our w88 scale be maintained or even expanded? That's right. Therefore, we need to study these new advantages and cultivate them. In one aspect, I think brand advantage. Processing w88 accounted for 55% of our original volume, and now it accounts for 45%, which is still less than half. It used to be more than half. The expansion of our w88 scale is largely due to the expansion of the scale of processing w88. Who does processing w88? It was all done by foreign-invested enterprises, and it also benefited from the introduction of foreign investment. When they came, processing w88 came up, and the scale of w88 expanded.

Second, we must cultivate technological advantages. Behind product competitiveness is technology, patents, R&D, R&D centers and a large number of R&D personnel. Without technology, patents, and advantages in this area, to be serious, it will be difficult to cultivate your brand. Of course, there is still a gap between these, so we still have to mention a brand advantage, but we also need to pay attention to the technical advantages.

Another one, we need to cultivate advantages in structural transformation. Structural transformation includes several aspects, including service w88 and goods w88. We must speed up the development of service w88 and goods w88. This is one aspect. Another one is that there are several structures in service w88 and there are several structures in goods w88, such as high-tech products and mechanical and electrical products, which we can develop. We can speed up the development of high-tech products, mechanical and electrical products.

When you cultivate these new advantages, our competitiveness will naturally come out. In addition, we have to combine w88 with investment. In the past, our w88 was w88 and investment was investment. Some people even thought that too much investment might have a negative impact on w88. In the future we can combine w88 and investment. For example, our overseas investment can drive the export of our machinery and equipment. After overseas investment, we develop value chains and industrial chains, which can drive the export of our raw materials and parts, as well as the export of certain services. We have set up enterprises abroad, and we have established value chains and industrial chains that we lead and have our own words. We have established them at the high end. After they are established, we will not only promote exports, but also play a certain role in imports. Some of their products can be exported to China. In this way, our w88 scale will be expanded, and our w88 competitiveness will also increase.

It is impossible to grow at a rate of about 10% for 30 consecutive years.

However, growth will still occur and can still be expected, but rapid growth is unlikely to occur again.

NetEase Finance: Thank you, Teacher Lu.

Original video link attached:http://money.163.com/special/wycjyjzgljy/