Hao Xuguang：Are you falling into the availability bias?
(Source:《Shanghai Securities News》Date:20164month21日）
People often rely on what is easily availableMessageMake a judgment. Why not based on the information that should be collected? This is because people like to take shortcuts and don’t want to think deeply. and want to avoidEasy to getSexual bias requires paying attention to deep information that is not easy to obtain. This is especially true in the stock market.
Which was more, the death toll due to the emergence of SARS in my country in 2003 or the death toll from traffic accidents during the same period? What are the possible outcomes? Why does the stock market often go up when all the short-term gains are exhausted, and then fall when the good news is realized? These questions introduce a bias: the availability bias.
The availability bias is when people make decisions based on information that is easily available (rather than information that should be collected). Why not based on the information that should be collected? This is because people like to take shortcuts and don’t want to think deeply.
In the stock market, the most accessible information isStock Reviewand various research reports. How valuable is this type of writing? Some stock commentators often play various word games. When retail investors call to inquire about the stocks in their hands, stock commentators' answers have a basic pattern, which is "come out and take a look half way, and then make a decision after the trend is established." If a stock is bullish, w88 slot will often remain bullish. In 2007, the Shanghai Stock Index was bullish at 5,000 points because 5,000 points was healthier than 3,000 points. We are still bullish at 6,000 points. The argument is that the golden decade is an opportunity that cannot be missed, and w88 slot is difficult to buy a bull with a lot of money and turn back. When the Shanghai Stock Index fell from 6124 points to 5500 points, w88 slot was still bullish, insisting that this was a normal adjustment in the bull market, and that the short-term correction and washout were for a better rise. If w88 slot falls to 5,000 points, w88 slot is declared to be a long-term bottom, so buy boldly. Falling to 4,500 points tells small and medium investors that the market has nothing to fall. At 4300 points, small and medium investors are reminded that short selling is very risky now. Even after falling to 4000 points, w88 slot is still said that the opportunity to build a position in the midline has arrived. w88 slot fell to 3500 points, insisting that the current point is not suitable for blindly selling down. w88 slot fell until w88 slot fell below 3,000 points in 2008, and w88 slot was still bullish. The reasons were that the stamp duty market and the Olympic Games were promising, and the policy was at the bottom, etc. If w88 slot falls to 2,500 points, 80% of institutions believe that the market has bottomed out. When w88 slot fell to 2,300 points, they began to criticize the decline as unacceptable, scolded institutions and main funds for being irresponsible, and called on the government to bail out the market. w88 slot fell to 2000 points, claiming that w88 slot would never fall below this iron bottom. After falling below 1800 points, I finally changed my tone and said that there was no hope for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. When w88 slot fell to 1664 points, w88 slot demanded that the stock market need to be overthrown and start over, and even suggested that retail investors cut off their stocks and get out of the market.
As for dead short stock reviews, they are even more bizarre. In May 2005, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell below the 1,000-point mark, and retail investors began to be persuaded to cut their losses and exit. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 1,000 points, requiring everyone to be cautious. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index exceeded 2,000 points, reminding everyone to pay attention to risks. In 2007, w88 slot broke through 3,000 points, and even when w88 slot reached 4,000 points, w88 slot was still bearish. After the sharp drop on May 30, he actually said, "I told you, the bull market has no foundation, and without performance support, w88 slot will fall back sooner or later. No, the value has returned." When the market rebounded strongly, w88 slot was said that this was the last chance to escape.
This kind of stock review makes me drunk just thinking about w88 slot. There is also a well-known stock commentator who, before the implementation of the circuit breaker mechanism, categorically said that once the circuit breaker mechanism is implemented, w88 slot will be a major benefit to the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. However, after the market opened on January 4 this year, the circuit breaker mechanism was triggered twice and the market closed early in the afternoon. On January 7, the second circuit breaker occurred only half an hour after the market opened. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had to "close" early. The circuit breaker mechanism was implemented twice and caused huge fluctuations in the market twice. After the circuit breaker mechanism was suspended, the stock reviewer claimed that the suspension of the circuit breaker mechanism was a major benefit to the stock market. Implementation is a good thing, and suspension of strong negative effects is also a good thing. The circuit breaker was triggered on two trading days, causing the market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets to shrink severely. According to statistics,Two citiesThe cumulative evaporation of market value in just two trading days reached more than 8 trillion yuan,A sharesThe average investor loss is nearly 160,000!
In general, the impact of “accessibility bias” may not matter. But for important issues, such as choosing a child's choice for the college entrance examination, we cannot choose based on hearsay information, or based on information that is "easily available". Instead, collect as much relevant information as possible carefully and make careful comparisons and choices. When investing in the stock market, investors spend real money, and they all want to make profits and cannot easily lose money. We must not take shortcuts, we must try our best to avoid the influence of "availability bias", try our best to obtain actual statistics, and try not to be swayed by "easily available" information such as superficial impressions. Think as rationally, conscientiously, comprehensively, independently and long-term as possible, discard the false and retain the true, and see the essence through phenomena. You need to read public and official media reports, you also need to read the content behind the words, and you also need to read the wordless book: Think Deeply. When looking at stock reviews, research reports, and media opinions, you must look at their consistent stance, at what point they said w88 slot, and how they have said w88 slot before. Based on a large amount of data, they summarize the relationship between their insights and market trends and their laws, which can be used as reverse indicators when necessary. Because stock reviews, research reports and media opinions are "easy to obtain" information, but if you stay on the surface, you may be deceived. Only through in-depth investigation can we see the essence beyond the surface and make correct decisions. There was once an extremely successful investorShenzhen MarketWhen people first entered the stock market, they specialized in tracking and studying the relationship between the opinions of a highly photographed stock reviewer ("easy-to-obtain" information) and market fluctuations (you need to study the "hard-to-obtain" information yourself). He concluded that when the stock index is at a relatively low or high point, the success rate of operating in the opposite direction to the stock review can reach more than 75%. Of course, he will not operate based solely on the opinions of this stock review. He will also rely on hisThaksinIn-depth analysis based on information and standards to make more accurate judgments.
Investors buying and selling stocks must explore the underlying reasons behind good news - information that is not "easy to obtain". You don’t necessarily have to sell when you encounter bad news at the bottom, but you must decisively exit when you encounter good news at the top. To overcome the influence of the availability bias, we need to see the essence through the phenomenon. We should see the hidden entry opportunities in the superficial "easy-to-obtain" information such as the market is extremely thin and everyone is still worried after the plunge, and we should keenly smell the exit signal in the superficial "easy-to-obtain" information that triggers market frenzy.
In a nutshell, if you want to avoid the accessibility bias, you should pay attention to deep information that is not easily available.
(The author is a professor at the w88 casino of Business, w88 casino, Beijing)
Attachment: Original report link
http://money.163.com/16/0422/03/BL7QFOS800253B0H.html
