Hao Xuguang: People have the pursuit of immediate satisfaction in their hearts

(Source: "Shanghai Securities News" Date:2016Year2month24日）

There are many reasons for short-term behavior, and the immediate gratification bias prevalent in people is an important aspect. When people make decisions, they tend to choose options that provide immediate benefits and avoid direct costs. To ordinary people, benefit now is more interesting than benefit in the future. The reason is still fear of the uncertainty of the future.

This year’s Spring Festival, it is popular to grab red envelopes on WeChat. In fact, the amount of red envelopes is very small, but everyone enjoys it. In the stock market, many small and medium-sized investors have to check the market all the time and like to operate every day. Many people like to do it after being trappedT+0, hoping to spread the cost... All the above phenomena, from a psychological point of view, are all because they can be satisfied immediately.

Psychologist Thaler1997After research, it was found that New York taxi drivers often leave work early when their average hourly income is high. When the average hourly income is low, people often get off work late. Obviously this is a strange phenomenon and not a rational decision. Generally speaking, when the average hourly income on a certain day is high, you should work more, because if the opportunity is too good to be missed, it will not come back again. Why is there such an unconventional approach? Interviews revealed that they consider one decision problem separately from other problems, or consider various aspects of a decision separately. Moreover, they only consider today's day, not two or more days' income.

Short-term behavior is now common. For example, local governments pursue short-termGDPGrowth often ignores the environmental carrying capacity. In order to pursue short-term profits, they will not hesitate to reclaim mountains and seas. Football clubs would rather spend huge sums of money to buy superstars in order to improve short-term results than invest in cultivating youth football talents. Investors enter the market hoping to double their profits immediately and so on.

There are many reasons for short-term behavior, and the immediate gratification bias prevalent in people is an important aspect.

Immediate gratification bias refers to the fact that people have higher requirements for immediate gratification. When making decisions, people tend to choose solutions that can obtain immediate benefits and avoid direct costs. To ordinary people, benefit now is more interesting than benefit in the future. The reason is fear of future uncertainty. If you have to choose between two benefits next month and one benefit this month, according to human rational thinking, the vast majority of people should choose the former, but the premise is that both are inevitable phenomena. For example, two benefits next month are not inevitable, and people may prefer to choose one benefit this month. The main reasons for the immediate gratification bias are that, first, people’s judgments about the likelihood of future events are inaccurate. When comparing immediate and future benefits, future benefits are often underestimated. Second, when it comes to enjoyment, people hope that the sooner the better, and it is far better to enjoy it now than to leave it in the future.

If you want to try your best to avoid the impact of immediate gratification bias on behavior, you might as well avoid frequent operations and do it with cautionT+0, learn to start with a short position.

The turnover rate of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has always ranked first in the world for many years. with2015Year5The monthly turnover rate is an example, the Shanghai stock market is546%, Shenzhen City666%, Hong Kong stock market72%, Taiwan stock market69.5%, Tokyo Stock Market, Japan103.2%, South Korea stock market137.7%, New York Stock Market53.3%Yes, German stock market73.4%. A high turnover rate indicates frequent operations. Average transactions per person per year in the United States6times, approximately8Weekly Transactions1times. But in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the author has done field research in a securities sales department in Beijing and has100Small and medium-sized investors with capital of less than 10,000 yuan w88 once every two days on average, with a maximum of one w88 a year578times. And possess1000Investors with capital of more than 10,000 yuan w88 once every three weeks on average. The author also interviewed hundreds of investors through the Internet and WeChat. On average, they w88 once every two days. close10%12457_1247120%12498_125257month20In the week of 12579_12598|, there were nearly a hundred transactions, with an average of nearly 100 transactions per day20times. These investors make little profit or even lose money.

Frequent operations often backfire and are an important reason for investors' losses. Frequent trading may increase the proportion of mistakes. Once you make a mistake in judgment, you will blindly add positions, which can easily turn small mistakes into big ones. Frequent transactions also greatly increase transaction costs. Investors are constantly looking for short-term trading opportunities and quickly sell out when there is a slight profit. There is no profit accumulation, and they often lose the watermelon and choose the sesame seeds.

To have higher investment returns, the number of transactions should be appropriately reduced. The author conducted in-depth interviews with several successful investors with relatively large amounts of capital. Under normal market conditions, they w88 once a month on average, and once every half a year in bear markets, but the yield is very high. Data from the China Securities Regulatory Commission shows that the length of holding time is directly proportional to the rate of return. The longer the holding time (the fewer the number of transactions), the higher the rate of return of individual investors. with201213612_13632143trading days, while the average holding period of individual investors is44trading days. For individual investors, the more funds they have, the longer the average holding time and the fewer transactions.

The reason why people are willing to do itT+0, becauseT+0Cash your profits a day early - get instant gratification. This is problematic in operational logic. If the future trend of the stocks originally held by investors is bullish and they cover their positions on the same day, then why should they sell on the same day? If the future trend is bearish, why buy again? If you are in a balanced market with an unknown trend, why not take a break? If you wish to passT+0Reduce the cost of holding positions in order to unwind the arbitrage. Then we have to ask: Is the gain from unwinding the arbitrage greater, or from buying other stocks? Just to get rid of the trap, isn't it just to get immediate psychological satisfaction? If you can ask yourself: lower profits now or higher profits in the future, which one would you choose? Many people prefer the former, but obviously rational people would choose the latter.

Investors who w88 frequently cannot hold stocks, let alone short positions. They will constantly oscillate between two extremes.

The results of a large sample study show that in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, real investment experts do not operate many operations, and the time for short positions is longer than the time for full positions. Some experts have made several market moves in recent years. Especially in a bear market, during the decline, you must be able to hold on to your money, not blindly rush for a rebound, and be able to endure the suffering of short positions.

When seeds are sown in the ground, they cannot germinate immediately. Once you give birth, it takes ten months to conceive. To be profitable in the stock market, you should not w88 frequently, but require persistent efforts and extraordinary patience.

Attachment: Original report link

http://opinion.hexun.com/2016-02-24/182395069.html