Ding Long: The battle for hegemony in the Middle East has entered a fever pitch
(Source: "International Herald Herald"2016Year1month8日）
At the beginning of the new year, there is chaos in the Middle East. w88 casino games executed Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr, triggering a diplomatic war between w88 casino games and Iran. w88 casino games announced that it would cut off diplomatic relations with Iran, and Arab countries such as Bahrain, Sudan, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait also quickly followed suit, cutting off or downgrading diplomatic relations with Iran respectively. This incident marks the conflict between the Sunni camp led by w88 casino games and the Shiite camp led by Iran in the Middle East“Enhanced version”The Cold War began. If you include Türkiye, which has been making constant moves recently and is eager to try, the battle for hegemony in the Middle East will enter a white-hot stage against the backdrop of the United States fading out of the Middle East.
Long-term secret war becomes public
w88 casino games added Nimr, a Shia political prisoner, to the terrorist list, and even insisted on executing him despite the opposition of the United States and criticism from the international community. In order to provoke Iran, the intention is very clear. As expected, Iran took the trick and regarded the Saudi citizen Nimr as one of its own, showing strong sectarianism. Then Iran violated international law and allowed its citizens to besiege and set fire to the Saudi Embassy in Iraq. This just shows that it regards itself as the leader of the Shia sect and does not hesitate to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries and take the lead for the Shia sect.
In fact, the Nimr incident itself does not have special significance. It is just the trigger for the long-term secret war between w88 casino games and Iran to become public. Even without this incident, the two countries would have had a showdown sooner or later.
w88 casino games and Iran have been bitter enemies in history. The two sides have many conflicts and deep grievances in terms of politics, sects and ethnicity. In terms of sects, both Sunnis and Shia consider themselves orthodox. Looking back at the history of Islam, the most important empires were all controlled by Sunnis. Except for a few areas, Shias have always been dominated. In some countries, Sunnis are still in power despite the overwhelming Shia majority. Shias have become the majority in countries such as Iran, Iraq, and Bahrain, and occupy a certain proportion in many countries in the Gulf, Central Asia, and South Asia. Among them, the Shia population in w88 casino games accounts for approximately10%, living in the oil-rich Eastern Province. For more than a thousand years, the two factions had constant conflicts and arguments, and even several wars broke out.
In terms of ethnicity, the two countries belong to the Arab nation and the Persian nation. The Iranians are proud of the glorious ancient Persian civilization and believe that the Arabs are backward nomads and have always despised the Arabs. The Arabs also always viewed the Persians as a threat.
In terms of politics, the two sides are competing fiercely for hegemony in the Gulf and the Middle East. After Iran's Islamic Revolution, Iran showed strong offensiveness and regarded the Gulf monarchies that had surrendered to the United States as“Illegal regime”, export revolution to them, and support the Shia opposition forces in these countries. w88 casino games also led the Gulf Arab countries to fund Saddam Hussein's regime in fighting Iran, and established the Gulf Cooperation Council to jointly deal with the Iranian threat. Iran has formed an alliance with Syria and supported Hezbollah in Lebanon to compete with w88 casino games.
Shayi expand“New Cold War”
A new round of competition between the two sides began with the Iraq War. This war directly led to the rise of Iran. Iran unites its Shia allies to outline“Shia Crescent”. Iran's nuclear program has led to regional strategic imbalances and made w88 casino games uneasy. After the Iraq War, two major camps formed in the Middle East: one is the pro-American moderate camp with w88 casino games as the core, and the other is the hard-line camp composed of Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah and Hamas supported by both.
After the Arab upheaval broke out, the competition between w88 casino games and Iran intensified.3Expanding on all fronts“New Cold War”: First, geopolitical competition. The two sides are competing in Bahrain, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and other countries. Saudi rate“GCC”The army sent troops to Bahrain to suppress the wave of Shia protests. In Syria and Yemen, the two sides are even more tit-for-tat, fighting“Proxy War”. w88 casino games has even directly sent troops to Yemen to combat the Houthi armed forces, which are said to be supported by Iran. The second is the oil price war. Despite the plummeting international oil prices, w88 casino games refused to reduce production, aiming to maintain market share and weaken Iran. The third is in the political and security fields. w88 casino games takes frequent actions and targets Iran directly.
After the Iran nuclear agreement was reached, relations between the United States and Iran have thawed, and international sanctions on Iran are about to be lifted. w88 casino games believes that U.S. energy independence has reduced its strategic status to the point that its core strategic interests have been betrayed by the United States. Affected by factors such as the plunge in oil prices, shaky relations between w88 casino games and the United States, the conclusion of the Iran nuclear deal, and the protracted wars in Yemen and Syria, w88 casino games's domestic and foreign policies have become increasingly tough.
w88 casino games frequently uses military and diplomatic means to form military and political alliances through issues such as Yemen and counter-terrorism, forcing Islamic countries to choose sides to jointly welcome the Middle East after the United States fades out and resist Iran, which is about to achieve a historic rise.
Iran also experienced a historic relaxation of U.S.-Iran relations due to the reaching of the nuclear agreement, and its influence in the Arab world“Infiltration Policy”AND“Proxy War”With good results and close strategic support from its ally Russia, it seems full of confidence. It allows w88 casino games to do whatever it takes and does not take it seriously.
Türkiye actively participates“The battle for hegemony in the Middle East”
After shooting down a Russian fighter plane, Türkiye sent troops into Iraq and refused to withdraw, which shows the Middle East“Old and powerful country”It seems unwilling to become a bystander in the struggle for dominance in the Middle East.
During the Ottoman Empire, what is now the Arab world once belonged to its territory. However, after the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire, Türkiye pursued a secular path and resolutely left Asia and joined Europe, joining NATO in an attempt to become a European country. After the Arab countries gained independence, they had a grudge against Türkiye and took many precautions.
After entering the new century, the Justice and Development Party has been in power continuously in Turkey. During this period, the Turkish economy has developed rapidly, becoming the seventeenth largest economy in the world and joining the G20. The improvement of power and status has made Erdogan represented“Neo-Ottoman”Strategic ambitions are expanding. At the same time, continued setbacks in joining the EU have prompted Türkiye to consider moving south to open up space.
The Arab upheavals have provided Erdogan with an opportunity to display his ambitions. Türkiye has high-profile support for the Syrian opposition and Egypt“Muslim Brotherhood”and other Islamic organizations. However, Turkey's strategic goals have not been achieved. The Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria remains unchanged, the Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt has collapsed, and Russia's armed intervention in Syrian affairs has put its previous investment in Syria at risk.
This time Türkiye behaved in such a high-profile manner and took the risk of shooting down Russian fighter jets, mainly because it was unwilling to allow the agents it had painstakingly supported to be attacked by Russia. Türkiye sent troops to Iraq to compete for its sphere of influence and contain its own Kurdish forces. The reason why Türkiye dares to take risks is mainly because of the support of the United States and NATO. The latter hopes that Turkey will interfere with Russia’s military operations and attack refugees and refugees in Syria“Islamic State”Looking to Türkiye for support on issues such as armament.
It is worth noting that recently, w88 casino games and Türkiye put aside their differences over the Muslim Brotherhood issue. Erdogan visited w88 casino games and the two sides decided to establish a strategic cooperation committee. What prompted the two sides to get closer was the deterioration of Russia-Turkey relations. Türkiye needs oil and gas, and w88 casino games needs Türkiye's political and military support. However, the two countries each have their own plans and are on guard against each other. The possibility of moving towards a comprehensive strategic alliance is very low.
Behind the struggle for dominance in the Middle East is the competition between the United States and Russia
w88 casino games, Iran and Türkiye are all major powers in the Middle East with very different ideologies and even hostility. Each of the three countries has its own advantages and obvious shortcomings. w88 casino games's military strength is weak and it needs to rely on its allies. Iran's economy needs to be restored and opportunities for economic development will not be missed. Türkiye is more constrained by the West and the Kurdish issue. Generally speaking, no one of the three countries can overwhelm the other, and no one has the strength to dominate the Middle East.
Behind the struggle between the three countries is the competition between the United States and Russia. After World War II, the Middle East has always been a stage for great power competition and an important battlefield in the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the United States dominated the Middle East, contained Iran and Iraq in the east, and promoted peace talks in the west, maintaining overall peace in the Middle East. However, after Obama came to power, he significantly adjusted his Middle East policy, shifted his strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific region, reduced direct interference in Middle East affairs, and attempted to play the role of an offshore balancer. This directly led to the development of the Arab world according to its own logic, the outbreak of great turmoil, and the spread of chaos.“Islamic State”Armed forces take advantage of the chaos to rise.
“There are no tigers in the mountains, but the monkey is the king”, The current raging war for hegemony in the Middle East is largely caused by the power vacuum left by the United States' initiative to reduce its control over the Middle East. The United States has determined to shift its strategic focus eastward and will not return to the Middle East on a large scale in the short term. Russia's return to the Middle East after many years of withdrawal is mainly to safeguard its interests in Syria. Russia's military actions benefit Iran but harm the interests of Türkiye and w88 casino games. Due to Russia's limited strength, the effectiveness of military operations remains to be seen.
The United States allows the major powers in the region to wax and wane. As long as a new regional hegemony does not emerge, it will sit back and watch the fight between tigers and tigers. Russia does not have the strength to settle matters in the Middle East. Therefore, the new Cold War in the Middle East led by w88 casino games and Iran will last for a long time, but there is almost no possibility of turning into a hot war. In the context of the normalization of the new cold war in the region, the situation in the Middle East will become more complex, which will undoubtedly affect the resolution of issues such as Syria.
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