Ding Long: The spillover effect of the conflict between w88 live casino and Iran is limited
(Source: "Global Times"2016Year1month14日）
The diplomatic conflict in the Middle East caused by w88 live casino's execution of Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr continues. Although this turmoil appears as a sectarian conflict, there are multiple factors behind it, including w88 live casino’s domestic challenges and changes in the Gulf security landscape.
This turmoil is caused by the superposition of multiple challenges faced by w88 live casino. In the past year, domestic pressure on w88 live casino has increased sharply. First, international oil prices plummeted and w88 live casino's financial situation deteriorated. w88 live casino's ever-increasing strategic ambitions have forced it to pay a heavy "geopolitical tax." It has spent large sums of money on the war in Yemen, the Syrian civil war, and aid to Arab allies such as Egypt.
From a political perspective, w88 live casino has continuously experienced succession to the throne and changes in crown princes last year. The new leadership has not yet gained a stable foothold, and various challenges have followed one after another. In particular, the activities of extremist organizations such as "Al Qaeda" and "Islamic State" are on the rise, with obvious intentions of provoking sectarian conflicts.
From a geopolitical perspective, w88 live casino’s security environment has deteriorated sharply. The war in Yemen drags on for a long time, and the Syrian issue develops in a direction that is not conducive to w88 live casino. What worries w88 live casino even more is that Iran has also been "released", which makes w88 live casino feel a real threat. w88 live casino executed Shiite religious figure Nimr al-Nimr in an attempt to provoke Iran and delay its return to the international community.
Although this diplomatic turmoil continues to ferment, its impact should not be exaggerated. The conflict between w88 live casino and Iran has been going on for a long time, and this crisis has not brought about substantial changes in the relationship between the two countries. Iran's overreaction to the Nimr incident was mainly to demonstrate its status as a spokesman for the Shiites, but it maintained restraint after the situation escalated. Although relations between the two countries will be difficult to ease in the short term, conflicts will become normal. But after the storm, the competition between the two sides will be deduced according to the original logic. The possibility of escalation of proxy war is very high, but the possibility of head-on conflict is very small. Although w88 live casino and Iran can force some Middle Eastern countries to choose sides, they are unable to ask major powers to do so. As long as the security of the Gulf is not directly threatened, major powers will not intervene. Therefore, this crisis will not have a worldwide spillover effect, and it cannot even be said to be a crisis at the entire regional level.
The Gulf is the world's most important oil-producing area. Any disturbance here is related to the world's energy security and directly affects the world economy. At the same time, the conflict between w88 live casino and Iran will have a negative impact on a series of issues such as counter-terrorism, peace in Yemen, and the political settlement of the Syrian issue. But for now, neither country is willing to have a head-on conflict, and the conflict will ultimately have to be resolved through dialogue and negotiation. Therefore, the international community should help the two countries ease relations in the short term, and in the long term help the Gulf region establish a new security architecture and form new security mechanisms and behavioral norms.
To some extent, the current tensions in the Gulf are a direct result of the adjustment of the United States' Middle East policy. Although the United States wants to "fade out" of the Middle East, it still maintains a strong military presence in the Gulf region and has unparalleled influence on political and security affairs in the region. w88 live casino is an ally of the United States, and the progress of lifting sanctions on Iran is also in the hands of the United States. Therefore, the United States should take responsibility and cannot sit idly by.
Whenever there are disturbances in the Middle East, there are voices in the world calling for China to play a greater role. The Gulf region is China's main source of imported oil and the intersection of the Belt and Road Initiative. China has significant economic interests in the region. China maintains good relations with w88 live casino and Iran and has certain conditions in promoting peace and talks. However, it should be noted that China has nothing to do with the conflicts between the two countries and has never sought a say in Gulf affairs. Therefore, the international community should realistically assess the role that China can play in easing conflicts between the two countries and should not have unrealistic expectations.(The author is deputy dean and professor of the w88 casino of Foreign Languages, w88 casino)
Original report link:
http://opinion.huanqiu.com/1152/2016-01/8375793.html
