Issuing special government bonds to replace w88 casino games login debts is not a long-term solution. w88 casino games login debts call for standardized debt financing mechanisms
(Source: "China Economic Herald" Date:2015Year11month25日）
Recently, the Ministry of Finance released10Monthly fiscal revenue and expenditure display, before this year10Monthly income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights23043100 million yuan, year-on-year decrease10936100 million yuan, down32.2%, where10Month down3.1%. The greatest impact of the reduction in land transfer fees on fiscal revenue is the lack of liquidity and lack of liquidity. At present, the w88 casino games login government debt replacement quota has been completed at about 2 trillion yuan. Compared with the w88 casino games login government bond replacement existing debt quota confirmed by the Ministry of Finance this year3.2There is still a long way to go before the target of one trillion yuan, and commercial banks are not very enthusiastic about replacement. How should we analyze the widespread calls in the market for the issuance of special government bonds to replace w88 casino games login government bonds? The “13th Five-Year Plan” proposes to actively cultivate an open, transparent and healthy capital market. So specifically speaking of the w88 casino games login government bond market, what important significance does its marketization and healthy development have to our country's economy? China Economic Herald reporters interviewed relevant experts.
Land transfer revenue has dropped sharply, and the government is under pressure to repay debt
At present, although the land market in first- and second-tier cities is generally performing well, there is still little interest in third- and fourth-tier cities. While the phenomenon of high land premium rates in first- and second-tier cities is still prominent, land transfer revenue across the country has shown a downward trend.
It is worth noting that w88 casino games login governments have not yet gotten rid of the constraints of land finance. Take last year17.9In terms of the total w88 casino games login government revenue of one trillion yuan (RMB, the same below), revenue from the transfer of land use rights still accounts for 10% of the total revenue23.8%。
Furthermore, although the national land transfer fee reaches trillions of yuan every year, based on previous experience, the portion that w88 casino games login governments can freely control is only about20%, the w88 casino games login government's disposable funds can only repay half of the interest generated every year on the entire debt.
Researcher Zhang Bin, assistant to the president of the Institute of Financial Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also pointed out in an interview with a reporter from China Economic Herald that the percentage of land transfer fees that w88 casino games login governments can freely use and land transfer fees is getting smaller and smaller. The growth rate of land transfer fees has declined, and the biggest problem that has arisen is the repayment of w88 casino games login debts.
In our country, many w88 casino games login governments have been keen on land management and development and “land finance” for a long time. Land finance has many negative effects, the most important of which is stimulating w88 casino games login governments to use land as collateral to build up debt.
Professor Wu Weixing, dean of the w88 casino of Finance at the w88 casino, said in an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Herald that land has been used for decades through buyouts, which has caused some local government officials to be happy to eat what they have and fish from the lake without considering how the next government officials will solve the problem of fiscal revenue... Many local governments can only continue to issue new debts to repay old debts. The more debts are repaid, the greater the risks.
State Council this year8"About Submission for Deliberation and Approval" submitted to the National People's Congress for deliberation in September2015Proposal on w88 casino games login government debt limit in 2019" shows,2015The w88 casino games login government debt limit is locked at16Trillion yuan, of which as of2014The debt balance that w88 casino games login governments are responsible for repaying at the end of the year15.4Trillion yuan,2015The new w88 casino games login government bond quota in the year is6000Billion yuan.
At present, "w88 casino games login debt", together with "real estate bubble" and "shadow banking", are widely recognized as the three major risks to the Chinese economy, ranking first.
Issuing special government bonds to replace w88 casino games login debts will do more harm than good
The newly revised budget law stipulates that part of the necessary funds for construction investment in the budget of provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities approved by the State Council can be raised through the issuance of w88 casino games login government bonds and debt within the limits determined by the State Council.
Zhang Bin said in an interview with a reporter from China Economic Herald that a considerable part of w88 casino games login government debt problems are due to "maturity mismatch", that is, the period of risk mitigation is shorter than the period of current risk exposure. Then, it is necessary to make the above-mentioned debt long-term by allowing w88 casino games login governments to issue bonds.
Recently, the Ministry of Finance confirmed that the quota of w88 casino games login government bonds to replace existing debt issued this year is3.2Trillion yuan. According to this calculation, the replacement bond quota accounts for2014The proportion of the debt balance that the government is responsible for repaying at the end of the year is20.8%. Analysis by many market research institutions,3.2Trillion-yuan replacement bonds can basically cover w88 casino games login government debt maturities this year.
However, the current w88 casino games login debt replacement quota has reached about two trillion yuan. Compared to3.2The target of one trillion yuan is still some way off, and commercial banks are not very enthusiastic about replacement. There are many calls in the market to issue special government bonds to replace w88 casino games login government bonds.
"Using the issuance of special treasury bonds to replace local debts has three benefits: the central government has better credit quality, and the interest expenses of the overall debt may be reduced; debts are managed by the central government, which reduces management costs and prevents the possibility of local crises; information on the debt scale is easier to find out, and the overall debt situation of the Chinese economy is easy to grasp, which may be helpful for macroeconomic decision-making." w88 casino games login told a reporter from the China Economic Herald.
However, using special government bonds to replace w88 casino games login debts is basically equivalent to completely exempting w88 casino games login debts, and the central government will bear the debts that w88 casino games login governments should bear. The experts interviewed believe that overall, the harm should outweigh the benefits.
w88 casino games login said that the disadvantages of special national debt are also very prominent. On the one hand, one disadvantage is that it destroys the incentive-compatible mechanism. Local governments borrow and the central government repays, which may lead to a lack of restraint on local governments in the future, creating moral hazard in long-term games that are difficult to control. On the other hand, the scale of local debt may have to be allocated by the central government, putting more responsibilities and pressure on the central government. After all, the central government has limited understanding of the local economy, which may harm the vitality of the local economy. In addition, w88 casino games login also believes that special national debt is similar to quantitative easing in a sense. It is debatable whether it is beneficial to adopt this method when China's economy has not deteriorated to a certain extent.
The healthy development of the w88 casino games login debt market has multiple meanings
w88 casino games login said that the healthy development of the local bond market has multiple meanings. First of all, it is conducive to the steady development of the national economy, preventing excessive borrowing by a small number of local governments from creating risk points and endangering the overall national economy; secondly, it is conducive to controlling the investment effect of funds raised from local debts and achieving long-term, high-speed development of the local economy; and also, improving the relationship between the government and the market to a greater extent, eliminating low-quality investment projects, helping local economic transformation and upgrading, and giving full play to the market's decisive role in resource allocation.
What is very worth looking forward to is that the “13th Five-Year Plan” proposal specifically proposes to establish a standardized w88 casino games login government debt financing system. So, how should the central government deploy the w88 casino games login debt investment and financing system?
w88 casino games login suggested that the general debt of local governments should be included in the general public budget management and should not exceed the approval authority; control the whereabouts of local bond financing, which can only be used for public welfare capital expenditures and the return of existing debts that social capital is unwilling to participate; clarify the repayment subjects of local debts and the responsibilities of the central government The relationship should be clarified, and the risks of local debt should be assessed in a timely manner, and the risk status should be linked to future debt quotas and government performance evaluations; even for public welfare capital expenditures, public-private partnership operations and other methods should be used as much as possible to maximize the role of the market in project selection and operation, while also allowing government expenditures to be fully monitored by the public.(Reporters Zhang Shouying and Lu Yujiang)
Attachment: Original report link
http://www.ceh.com.cn/epaper/uniflows/html/2015/11/25/B02/B02_48.htm
