The possibility of future profits and losses is what matters
Hao Xuguang
(Source: "Shanghai Securities News"2015-11-25)
Loss aversion means that people are more sensitive to losses, willing to be conservative when faced with gains, and willing to take risks when faced with losses. When investing in stocks, you must pay attention to loss aversion, learn to stop losses, and learn not to gamble and rush to make money regardless of market conditions.
Why should we be cautious when deducting bonuses? Why should we stop losses in stock investments?
Sometimes you can see reports like this: a truck pulling oranges overturned on the highway. When people coming behind see the people in front picking up oranges and taking them for themselves, they will involuntarily join the picking process. Why? Because people who come later see people in front doing this, they think that if they don’t participate, they will lose. But we can’t suffer a loss! Those who enter the stock market eager to buy stocks often have the same mentality: if others come in, buy, and make money, but if they don’t enter or buy, won’t they lose money? This shows how sensitive people are to losses.
These manifestations, psychologically speaking, are related to loss aversion.
One person gets w88 online live casino2000Yuan Qianhe is lost2000Which one has a greater impact on the heart caused by money? Obviously, losing money has a greater impact. Psychological research shows that for the same gain or loss, the impact of "loss" is twice that of "gain". People are more sensitive to losses, which is called "loss aversion". Loss aversion also manifests in people's different attitudes when faced with losses and gains. Suppose you participate in an event and you have two options: Option 1, you are sure to get w88 online live casino100Yuan; option two, flip a coin, if w88 online live casino lands on heads there is no money, if w88 online live casino lands on tails you get200Yuan. What would you choose? I'm afraid most people will choose option one. Suppose you participate in another activity, you also have two options: Option 1, make sure you pay100Yuan; option two, toss a coin, you pay if w88 online live casino lands heads200Yuan, back side up, you don’t pay. What would you choose? Most people will probably choose option two. The author has done nearly 10,000 surveys. In the first case,80%Choose option one above; the second case,80%Select option two above. Why is this so? Because the first situation describes benefits, when faced with benefits, people always tend to play w88 online live casino safe and get the money first rather than taking risks. If you are unlucky, you may get nothing. The second situation describes losses. Faced with losses, people tend to take risks: if they are lucky, they don’t have to pay.
Loss aversion has many impacts on investment behavior. For example, they don't know how to stop losses, can't hold on to profits, or are eager to recover losses.
For example, if you have two stocks in your hand, one of them has gone up20%, the other one fell20%, the market situation is generally normal now. You are eager to use the money and must sell one. Which one will you sell? Typically, most people will sell whichever stock is rising. The author has done nearly 10,000 surveys,89%People all make this choice. This result has nothing to do with academic qualifications, professional titles, and positions. Why? Because the rise in stocks is a return, when facing returns, you must get them first. People often can't stand the suffering caused by a stock rising, and are always afraid of falling back again, so they must be safe first, but ignore the possibility that w88 online live casino will continue to rise. When a stock falls, w88 online live casino is a loss. When faced with a loss, you might as well bet on your luck, always hoping that w88 online live casino will rise back to avoid losses. Maybe you will be able to unwind by then? Strictly speaking, this operation is unreasonable. Generally speaking, under normal market conditions, the strong will always be strong and the weak will always be weak. The stock price fell20%, w88 online live casino is time to stop loss and sell. But investors often don't sell at this time, because once sold, w88 online live casino will become a real loss, which is unacceptable to them, and they always want to take a gamble. Expert research shows that selling falling stocks and keeping rising stocks has higher returns than selling rising stocks and keeping falling stocks4.4%. In addition, stop loss is an important aspect of execution decisions, especially in the stock market. If the loss is not stopped in time, the loss will become larger and larger in the future. Suppose the investor has1010,000 principal, dropped20%, leftover8Ten thousand.810,000 rise back10Ten thousand yuan, the stock price needs to rise24%Above. In case of loss20%No stop loss, once w88 online live casino falls50%, only5Ten thousand principal. And from510,000 yuan rises back10Ten thousand, the stock price needs to rise100%. This shows how important stop loss is. However, due to the influence of loss aversion, w88 online live casino is difficult for people to stop losses. In the stock market, people are often bold and determined to win before making any profit. Once you make a profit, you become as timid as a mouse and sell quickly. However, if the stock continues to rise after being sold, w88 online live casino feels like w88 online live casino is a loss, so w88 online live casino is often impatient to buy w88 online live casino back at a higher price. The stock market illusion will strengthen this loss aversion.
Once a real loss occurs, people are often eager to operate in order to recover their losses. Driven by this psychology, they often ignore the market situation and are eager to buy even if the market falls. That situation is a bit like a gambler in a casino who is eager to recoup his losses after losing. This shows that loss aversion has a profound impact on people's behavior.
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w88 online live casino seems that w88 online live casino is not easy to overcome loss aversion. You must first learn to pay attention to both losses and gains. The choice is not based on previous profits and losses, but on the likelihood of future profits and losses. Taking stocks as an example, the only criterion for whether to buy or continue to hold is whether there are sufficient reasons for the stock price to rise in the future and whether the possibility of rising is relatively high. According to the requirement to give equal weight to profits and losses in order to overcome loss aversion, in the process of stock investment, you must learn to stop losses. Of course, stop loss is also conditional. If you encounter a "black swan" event, the moving averages wrap around and form counter-pressure, there is an obvious sell signal, and a downward trend is formed and runs in a downward channel. You should be calm at this time. If the market and stocks have been consolidating at the bottom for a long time, you should not blindly stop losses.
In the process of corporate management, we must be cautious and cautious about withholding employee bonuses. Why? To ordinary people, things that are unavailable and unobtained are not precious. Things that are obtained but may be lost at any time (that is, losses) are the most precious. In addition, the amount of the reward should be determined carefully. If the initial quota is too large, and if w88 online live casino becomes difficult to reduce or even cancel the rewards later, the negative impact on employees will be far greater than not giving or giving less rewards at the beginning.
(Author Departmentw88 casinoBusiness w88 casino Professor)
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