Scientific Expectation More Benefits

Immediate gratification bias refers to the fact that people have higher requirements for immediate gratification. When making decisions, people tend to choose options that can immediately obtain benefits and avoid direct costs. To ordinary people, benefit now is more interesting than benefit in the future. The reason is still the fear of future uncertainty. According to people's rational thinking, most people may give up one benefit this month in order to obtain two benefits next month, but the premise is that both are inevitable phenomena. Many people suffer from immediate gratification bias. The first reason is that people do not judge objectively the likelihood of future events. When weighing immediate and future benefits, people often underestimate the likelihood of future benefits. The second is in line with the laws of psychology: for enjoyment, the sooner the better, it is far better to enjoy it now than to leave it in the future.

Psychologist Thaler found through research in 1997 that New York taxi drivers often leave work early when their average hourly income is high. When the average hourly income is low, people often get off work late. This is a strange phenomenon. Generally speaking, when the average hourly income on a certain day is high, you should work more because the opportunity is not to be missed. And when the hourly income is relatively low, you should work less. Why is there such an unconventional approach? Because they only consider today's 1 day as the standard instead of considering the income of 2 or more days, they pay more attention to today's income rather than the long-term overall income.

It can be seen that the immediate satisfaction bias is because the expectation of future benefits is unclear and unstable. At this time, it is easy for them to ignore long-term interests for the sake of immediate interests. So, how do you avoid the immediate gratification bias?

First of all, we must realize that focusing too much on short-term gains may harm long-term interests. Meeting current requirements immediately may harm long-term interests and is not conducive to the realization of long-term goals. There are many such examples in life. For example, if you want to reach a target about 100 meters away in a relatively straight direction on smooth snow, you may go wrong if you keep looking at your feet. Only by focusing on the target on the opposite side and taking care of your feet can you achieve the target more efficiently. Companies may make more profits in the short term by reclaiming mountains and seas, but in the long run they will damage the environment. A well-known football team has accumulated decades of accumulation and formed a style that is technically exquisite, coordinated and in line with the laws of modern football development. However, due to the excessive pursuit of short-term interests and the requirement for the team to produce results quickly, they neglected the cultivation of young football talents and chose foreign players who were tall, strong, and extremely impactful. The entire team tailored their tactics around such foreign players, often starting from their own backcourt to find foreign players in the frontcourt. The short-term results were very good. However, this kind of selection and playing style has significantly changed the team's technical style, has also had a negative demonstration effect on the growth of young football talents, and harmed the long-term interests of the club.

Secondly, excessive pursuit of immediate gratification may damage short-term interests. The turnover rate of my country's Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets ranks first in the world. In the United States, each person trades an average of 6 times per year, and the rate of return is not low. However, in China, many small and medium-sized investors w88 once every two days on average, but the short-term returns are not high and often lead to losses. On the one hand, the proportion of mistakes increases, on the other hand, it increases transaction costs, and often the watermelon is lost and the sesame seeds are picked up. Why do they operate so frequently? It is because they are eager for success, hope to make profits immediately, and hope to get rich overnight. These, in turn, are influenced by demands for immediate gratification.

Finally, people underestimate the possibility of future returns, often because the future is unpredictable. Therefore, in the management process, management policies must be consistent, and their modifications and adjustments should be predictable to ensure their relative stability and predictability.

Individuals should improve their ability to accurately and reasonably estimate possible future returns, and at the same time cultivate their patience. In fact, once seeds are sown in the ground, they cannot germinate immediately. Doing anything requires long-term efforts.

Original link:http://paper.ce.cn/jjrb/html/2015-10/25/content_280252.htm