Editor’s note:As China’s economic and w88 ties with other countries around the world become closer, the importance of ensuring the safe and smooth flow of global land and sea strategic lanes has become increasingly prominent. In view of this, a comprehensive and systematic analysis and evaluation of the diplomatic strategies of countries along the global land and sea strategic corridors has become one of the most urgent tasks in the current study of China's international issues.
China.com Viewpoint China Planning launches "Strategic location in the worldAnalysis of Diplomatic Trends" series focuses on more than ten important land and sea strategic corridor areas around the world, analyzes the diplomatic strategies of important countries along them, displays the geopolitical background, and highlights opportunities and challenges at the international level.
Qiao Xuan: w88 casino Diplomacy, a pragmatist in the Horn of East Africa
（Source: China.com Date 2015Year7month20日）
The Republic of w88 casino is located on the west coast of the Gulf of Aden in northeastern Africa, bordering Eritrea to the north, Somalia and Ethiopia to the southeast and southwest. It is only separated from the Asian continent by the narrow Bab el-Mandeb Strait. It not only guards the gateway between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, but also controls strategic locations in the Mediterranean Sea, the Indian Ocean, the interior of Africa, and the Arabian Peninsula. Going east from w88 casino, you can directly enter the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean through the Gulf of Aden, and then lead to the Pacific and East Asia; going north, you can go through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, and finally enter the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. It can be said that w88 casino has a unique strategic location.
1. w88 casinoPragmatismDiplomacy
Before the invasion of Western colonists, w88 casino was ruled by the three sultans of Hausa, Tadjoura and Obock, and later became a French colony. since1977Year6month2716924_171171991Provide various economic and military assistance to Kyrgyzstan since 17540_17558|“9•11”After the incident, w88 casino actively cooperated with the United States in counter-terrorism in the Horn of Africa, and its relations with the United States developed rapidly. The United States has established its only permanent military base in Africa in w88 casino. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, Japan has provided approximately11253.7Ten thousand US dollars in aid. Since Japan sent the Maritime Self-Defense Force to escort in the waters of Somalia, relations between Kyrgyzstan and Japan have continued to heat up, and the port of w88 casino has been designated as the logistics supply base of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force. Since China established diplomatic relations with w88 casino, it has assisted in the construction of many projects such as the People's Palace, a stadium, and a clinic building. China-w88 casino2014Annual w88 volume11.3billion US dollars, w88 casino has also provided various conveniences for the Chinese naval fleet to escort the Gulf of Aden. Secondly, w88 casino attaches great importance to developing relations with neighboring countries. w88 casino has signed a friendly cooperation agreement and agricultural science and technology cooperation with Ethiopia25agreement, the two countries have frequent high-level exchanges, hold regular bilateral consultations, and continue to strengthen cooperation in w88, transportation, educational cooperation and free movement of personnel. Djibouti has a deep connection with Somalia. The two countries share the same ethnic origin and language. Before independence, Djibouti was known as Somalia.“French Somalia”, w88 casino has actively promoted the Somali government and the opposition to reach the w88 casino Agreement, and the current relations between the two countries are developing well. Eritrea had relatively good relations with w88 casino at the beginning of its independence, but the two countries subsequently experienced the cessation and restoration of diplomatic relations. Due to territorial disputes, relations between the two countries have been tense several times, and they currently advocate resolution through diplomatic channels. Finally, actively participate in regional cooperation and support the international community in jointly combating Somali piracy. w88 casino is a member of the African Union, the Arab League, the Organization of the Islamic Conference, the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, the Sahel-It is a member of regional organizations such as the Sahara Community and is also the headquarters of the East African Intergovernmental Organization for Development (IGAD).2009Year1In March, the International Maritime Organization held a high-level meeting in w88 casino, at which a code of conduct for joint cooperation in combating piracy was adopted;2012Year3In March the International Maritime Organization and w88 casino signed an agreement committing to fund the establishment of a training center to combat piracy. Since the international community joined forces to combat Somali pirates, warships from many countries have escorted the Gulf of Aden. France, the United States, Japan, Germany, Italy and other countries have established military bases in w88 casino, while China, Russia and other countries have chosen to frequently dock in w88 casino for supplies.
2. Causes of w88 casino’s foreign policy
First, the importance of w88 casino’s geopolitical culture. As mentioned above, the geopolitical importance of w88 casino has attracted the attention of major powers. In modern times, major powers such as the United Kingdom, France, the Soviet Union, and the United States have successively established large military bases near the ports of w88 casino and Aden with the purpose of controlling the Gulf of Aden, and then the Red Sea, the Indian Ocean, the Horn of Africa, and the Arabian Peninsula. From a geocultural perspective, after the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, different political and religious forces in the Middle East continued to divide and combine in the struggle for power. In particular, various Islamic forces, including religious extremist organizations, entered a new period of activity and showed transnational characteristics. In recent years, the changes in North Africa and the Syrian crisis have gradually pushed w88 casino into the center of religious radical forces and anti-Western forces. The narrow Strait of Mandeb, about long18Kilometers, approx. at widest point32Kilometers, the narrowest point is only about25km. It is said that terrorists can reach w88 casino from Yemen through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in just one hour, and quickly enter the turbulent Somalia. In addition, w88 casino has the dual identity of an African country and an Arab country, which will inevitably attract the attention of many world powers, regional countries and various forces.
Second, w88 casino’s domestic political situation is relatively stable. Compared with its neighboring countries Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea, w88 casino is a truly small country, with an area of only2.3210,000 square kilometers, population only92Ten thousand. As an Arab country in Black Africa, its total population94%are Muslims, while only Christians6%, but w88 casino’s policy is very flexible and pragmatic. It can be said that w88 casino is the country with the weakest anti-American and anti-Western forces in the Arab world and African countries. It has long maintained a neutral attitude towards the Arab-Israeli conflict in the Middle East and anti-colonialism; moreover, pan-Islamic trends, pan-African trends and“Greater Somalia”Ideology and other trends lack a market in w88 casino. Therefore, w88 casino is different from many countries in the same region. It does not advocate the establishment of a unified Arab state, nor does it advocate the establishment of a unified Arab state“United States of Africa”, let alone the establishment of a Greater Somalia country united by Somalis from the former British Somalia, French Somalia, Italian Somalia and even the Ogaden region. The biggest benefit of w88 casino's pragmatic policy is that it can keep it away from all kinds of disputes. Although it has experienced civil war, w88 casino's domestic political situation has remained relatively stable in the past ten years, and the political risks faced by major countries' military bases in w88 casino are very low. since2010Occurred in Arab countries in North Africa and West Asia and some countries in other regions at the end of the year“Arab Spring”It has successively affected Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria and other countries, but only sporadic anti-government demonstrations occurred in w88 casino, and the situation quickly stabilized, and foreign military bases in w88 casino did not suffer a huge impact.
Third, w88 casino’s domestic economic security depends on cooperation with foreign countries. Although w88 casino's strategic location is very critical, its natural conditions are extremely harsh. Most of the land is desert and it is one of the hottest areas in the world. The country is also very scarce in water resources and other mineral resources, and its industrial and agricultural foundation is weak.95More than % of agricultural products and industrial products rely on imports. According to "2013World Human Development Report statistics, w88 casino Human Development Index in the world186Ranked among countries and regions164bit, high incidence of AIDS, cholera and malaria, average life expectancy61.6Years old. In recent years, although the Djiboutian government has actively adjusted its economic policies, the country's foreign debt has continued to rise.2013The year is up7.63USD, % of GDP52.4%。201437969_3798315.81USD billion, per capitaGDPOnly1761USD. Therefore, striving for foreign aid and investment has become an important channel for the w88 casino government to improve people's livelihood.2013Total foreign aid received by w88 casino in 20179582million US dollars, accounting for approximately 1% of the total fiscal revenue for the year18.81%. w88 casino allows the United States, France, Japan and other countries to establish military bases because it sees that leasing military bases is an important source of income. Foreign garrisoning can not only promote the construction of infrastructure, but also attract economic aid and promote local consumption, and use foreign garrisoning to ensure its domestic security. For example, United States2014Year5Yue obtained a ten-year lease of the w88 casino military base, which must be paid to w88 casino every year6300Ten thousand US dollars.2003-2013In addition to paying w88 casino every year, France3000In addition to the base usage fee of 10,000 euros, various types of assistance are provided3.8Billion dollars. The annual rent for Japan’s military base in w88 casino is300010,000 USD, only2009During the fiscal year, Japan provided various types of assistance to Kyrgyzstan with a total amount of3500Ten thousand US dollars.
Fourth, each country’s own strategic demands. In addition to the common goals of combating Islamic extremist forces and dealing with the threat of Somali pirates, major countries also have their own strategic intentions. As early as the colonial period, France used w88 casino as a springboard for its dominance in Africa and the Red Sea.201145680_45792“9•11”Later, the United States gradually increased its military presence in African countries. In order to implement its anti-terrorism strategy in East Africa and West Asia and enhance its influence on East African countries, the United States established a military base in w88 casino and deployed US troops to combat extremist terrorist organizations in the region. Since Shinzo Abe came to power again, the Middle East and Africa have become Japan“Globe Diplomacy”47933_481092008Year10Started participating in anti-piracy operations in Somali waters in March. It can be seen that the respective interests and demands of these major countries have greatly contributed to w88 casino’s foreign policy of welcoming foreign governments.
3. w88 casinoDiplomacy with ChinaDevelopment Trend
As China’s economic influence in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa continues to grow, so does its political and military influence in the region. China has already funded several large infrastructure projects in w88 casino, including ports, airports and railway projects, totaling billions of dollars. Recently, there are rumors that China is planning to establish China's first permanent overseas military base in w88 casino. This news has attracted attention from all parties as soon as it came out. Starting from w88 casino's pragmatic diplomacy, it can be judged that its diplomatic attitude towards China is that it very much looks forward to the deepening and development of relations with China in the future, which is closely related to the fact that China is the world's second largest economy. w88 casino pursues a balanced foreign policy and advocates“Whoever comes is a guest”, it is not seeking to form some kind of political or military alliance with one or two big countries, but just pursuing practical interests. If China can be allowed to set up a military base in w88 casino, it will definitely bring considerable economic income to it. Therefore, President Guelleh of w88 casino has expressed great goodwill towards China and believes that China’s construction of bases will be a great success“Popular”. The situation in which major powers such as the United States, Europe and Japan are vying to dominate the region will also change with China's entry. w88 casino will be more willing to deal with these major powers and take advantage of them“Strategic location”Replacement“Benefits return”'s pragmatic diplomacy to the extreme.
Of course, the development of w88 casino’s diplomacy with China also faces risks and opportunities. On the one hand, w88 casino cannot escape the impact of changes in the situation in neighboring countries. The confrontation between Ethiopia and Eritrea and the civil war in Somalia have increased the country's geopolitical risks; w88 casino's backward infrastructure and tight water and electricity supply directly restrict China's investment and construction in the country. In addition, the quality of w88 casino's citizens is low.2014Population illiteracy rate30%, this will have an adverse impact on cooperation with w88 casino; whether major countries such as the United States, France, and Japan are happy to see the cooperation between China and w88 casino continue to deepen is also an issue that China must seriously consider. On the other hand, if China can build a reliable and permanent strategic support point in w88 casino, it will not only greatly improve the efficiency of the Chinese navy in the region, bring greater convenience to escort and combat terrorists and pirates, but also enhance China's strategic influence in the region; at the same time, it will continue to strengthen cooperation with w88 casino and increase assistance to w88 casino in culture, education, health, military, sports, etc., which will help deepen China“One Belt, One Road”The positive impact of the strategy in the country and the shaping of a positive image of China will also be conducive to the development of relations between China and other African countries and Arab countries. (Author DepartmentExternalDeputy Director and Associate Professor of the Department of Diplomacy, w88 casino of International Relations, University of Economics and Business）
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