w88 online sports betting, how can the United States help without causing chaos (authoritative forum)
(Source: "People's Daily"2015Year03month19日 No.23version)
(w88 casino News Network) The drastic changes in the w88 online sports betting have passed4Year. This social and political movement, initially dubbed the "Arab Spring," broke the old political pattern of the w88 online sports betting, but it did not bring about the prosperity that the people expected. As the largest extraterritorial force influencing w88 online sports betting politics, where will the U.S. w88 online sports betting policy go?
Ding Long (Professor, w88 casino of Foreign Languages, w88 casino)
Tian Wenlin (Associate Researcher at China Institute of Contemporary International Relations)
Li Weijian (researcher at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies)
w88 online sports betting countries are undergoing difficult transformation, and their governance models are still being explored
Ding Long(Professor, w88 casino of Foreign Languages, w88 casino): The “Arab Spring” did not bring stability and development to the w88 online sports betting countries, and some countries are still in the process of difficult adjustment. The current situation in the w88 online sports betting presents five characteristics:
1. Sectarian conflicts are intensifying. The current conflicts in the w88 online sports betting have sectarian overtones. Sunnis and Shiites are fighting "proxy wars" in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, which has brought the w88 online sports betting into a "cold war" period with sectarian lines and confrontation between the two camps.
2. Terrorism and religious extremism are rampant. The "Islamic State" armed force has risen due to the chaos, and the branch of "Al Qaeda" in the Arabian Peninsula is active and powerful. Salafist forces and al-Qaeda branches are active in North Africa. The religious extremism "Jihad Salafism" that originated in the w88 online sports betting was activated by regional chaos and sectarian conflicts. A research report from the Rand Corporation of the United States pointed out that2010—201316336_1635358%, exceeded3000pieces.
3. Old and new issues are intertwined. New contradictions and conflicts continue to emerge in the w88 online sports betting. Old issues plaguing the region, such as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, have been marginalized, but they have become hot spots that stir up regional tensions from time to time.
4. The imbalance of regional power structure. After the Iraq War, the strength and status of Arab countries declined, and the drastic changes in the w88 online sports betting severely damaged the vitality of countries such as Syria, while the strength of countries such as Israel, Iran, and Türkiye increased. The sharp drop in international oil prices has posed challenges to the stability of regional oil-producing countries.
5. Lack of external checks and balances. After the Cold War, the United States alone dominated w88 online sports betting affairs, adopting the strategy of "promoting peace talks in the west and containing Iran and Iraq in the east" and generally maintaining the "cold peace" in the w88 online sports betting. "9·11", the United States adopted a two-pronged strategy of military intervention and democratic transformation, which suffered serious setbacks. After Obama came to power, the United States' w88 online sports betting strategic adjustment "wobbled", but the chaos in the w88 online sports betting remains.
Tian Wenlin(Associate Researcher at China Institute of Contemporary International Relations): Middle Eastern countries are experiencing new problems such as internal strife among political parties, idling of power, and deteriorating security situations to varying degrees. Libya emerges after Gaddafi's fall1700Multiple militias are fighting against each other, and the political transition is tortuous and difficult. Yemen has never been able to escape its security and economic difficulties. The Syrian civil war has lasted for several years, about20Ten thousand people died.
Egypt’s foreign exchange reserves from before the upheaval360100 million US dollars dropped to approximately170USD, total public debt exceeds2800$100 million. Libya2013Annual oil export volume fell below production capacity10%. The Syrian economy has been severely damaged. According to estimates, the economy has recovered to2010year level required at least30year time.
Those countries that have temporarily escaped the "regime change wave" in the w88 online sports betting are facing problems such as low growth, high unemployment, and fragile political systems to varying degrees, and succession issues are becoming increasingly prominent. Over the years, Middle Eastern countries have not been able to properly handle three major issues: first, the issue of order and development, second, the issue of minority and majority, and third, the issue of secularity and religion. It is obviously difficult to find a national governance model that can effectively solve the above problems.
“Geographic competition + sectarian conflict”, the game between Iran and Saudi Arabia adds variables to the regional situation
Tian Wenlin: Before the drastic changes in the w88 online sports betting, the region was mainly divided into two camps: moderate and radical camps(Actually the pro-American and anti-American camps)Game. After the drastic change, the power structure was reshuffled. In the moderate camp, Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, etc. have experienced regime changes one after another and have fallen into trouble and have no time to take care of regional affairs. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries have replaced Egypt as the "leader" in the Arab world. In the radical camp, the Gaddafi regime in Libya was overthrown and fell into disunity; a full-scale civil war broke out in Syria. In comparison, Iran has a stable political system, strong comprehensive national strength, and a clear attitude on regional issues, and its regional influence is increasing day by day. The status of Saudi Arabia and Iran has improved in their respective camps. Especially in the context of the decline in US regional influence, the two countries' awareness of competition has increased.
The best framework for understanding the politics of the w88 online sports betting is the “new Cold War” situation led by Iran and Saudi Arabia. This "new Cold War" mainly manifests itself in three aspects: First, geopolitical competition. The two sides have launched "proxy wars" in Bahrain, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and other countries. The second is the oil price war.2014Year6International oil prices have plummeted since last month, and Saudi Arabia relied on its possession7500billion US dollars in foreign exchange and its status as the largest oil producer, it refuses to reduce guaranteed prices. Its purpose is to maintain market share, but weakening Iran is also one of the motivations. The third is the security field.2014Year12In August, the Gulf countries announced the establishment of a joint naval force and a joint military command in Saudi Arabia, with the purpose of dealing with the threats of the "Islamic State" and Iran.
It should be pointed out that the domestic and foreign affairs of Saudi Arabia and Iran have a strong religious overtone. Saudi Arabia is the main representative of the Sunni camp, and Iran is the mainstay of the Shia camp. The game between the two sides has "geopolitical+The dual nature of "sectarian conflict". Generally speaking, the "new cold war" between Iran and Saudi Arabia may lead to the regional situation being full of variables. On the one hand, sectarian conflicts in regional countries are heating up. This kind of regional conflict with sectarian conflict as the background is more complicated than a simple national conflict. The competition for national interests is even more difficult to resolve. On the other hand, Israel has become the biggest beneficiary of the "snipe-clam conflict". Since the drastic changes in the w88 online sports betting, the geographical territories of relevant countries have become increasingly fragmented. In contrast, Israel's geopolitical environment has been improving day by day, and it has been able to act on a larger scale in the w88 online sports betting due to reduced constraints.
The "Islamic State" is rapidly gaining ground, and regional terrorist forces are becoming more widespread
Tian Wenlin: Terrorist activities have been rampant in the w88 online sports betting. After the drastic changes in the w88 online sports betting, the transformation of Middle Eastern countries was not smooth and the regional security vacuum increased, providing rich soil for the breeding and spread of terrorist activities. Terrorist organizations such as "Al Qaeda" took the opportunity to expand their scope of activities and focused on the "Three No Ones" zone(Such as eastern Libya, northern Mali, Egypt's Sinai Peninsula and parts of Syria)Establish an activity base. The currently emerging "Islamic State" uses Syria and Iraq as its main bases of operations, connects extremist forces throughout West Asia and North Africa, and is supported by dozens of extremist organizations around the world. The U.S. State Department’s counterterrorism report shows that major terrorist incidents occurred in West Asia and North Africa,1998Not enough years300starting,2008year reached1600starting,2013The year is4650From. Affected by this, "lone wolf" terrorist attacks have frequently occurred in Western countries such as France, Canada, and Australia.
Ding Long: Terrorist organizations in the traditional sense only achieve political goals by creating panic and do not seek to control territory or establish political entities. The "Islamic State" armed forces are religious extremist insurgent armed forces with troops, funds, strong mobilization and recruitment capabilities, and certain governance capabilities. The joining of a group of middle- and lower-level officers of the Iraqi army during Saddam's era enhanced the organization's combat capabilities and turned it into a "terrorist organization with an army." The rise of the "Islamic State" is a direct result of the chaos in Iraq and the civil war in Syria. Some Western and Middle Eastern countries support the Syrian opposition, and a large number of "jihadists" have obtained funds and weapons, and gained combat experience on the Syrian battlefield. Middle Eastern countries have rapid population growth, slow economic development, and high youth unemployment. Muslim immigrants from Western countries are unable to integrate into local society, which also provides a "source of soldiers" for the "Islamic State" armed forces.
Li Weijian(Researcher at Shanghai Institute of International Studies): The rapid rise of the "Islamic State" has three direct reasons: First, its members are mainly composed of some members of the Iraqi branch of the "Al Qaeda" organization, the remnants of Saddam Hussein, and "jihadist" elements circulating throughout the w88 online sports betting. These people are familiar with the terrain, have wide connections, and have rich combat experience. Secondly, the religious ideology, modern propaganda techniques and abundant financial temptations represented by the "Islamic State" enable it to continuously recruit new people to join. Third, it received early support from some countries and people in the region. Supporters mostly identify themselves as Sunnis and believe that "Islamic State" represents "the resistance of Sunnis who are at a disadvantage in the competition with Shias."
But in the final analysis, "Islamic State" is a product of the chaos in the w88 online sports betting, and the United States cannot absolve itself of the blame for such chaos. The United States launched the war in Iraq, which led to the continued deterioration of the security situation in Iraq. After the drastic changes in the w88 online sports betting, the United States first added fuel to the turbulent situation and high-profile support for the so-called "democratic revolution." However, after the "changes" turned into "chaos," its political enthusiasm quickly faded, and it accelerated the pace of strategic contraction while the regional security situation was still dangerous. This largely enabled the "Islamic State" to take advantage of the chaos and quickly gain momentum.
The United States is in the embarrassing situation of "cannot win, cannot leave, and cannot go back"
Tian Wenlin: The United States is the largest extraterritorial force influencing w88 online sports betting politics. The United States has fought against terrorism in the w88 online sports betting for ten years. As a result, it fell into a quagmire of war and severely damaged its soft and hard power. It forced the Obama administration to reflect on its w88 online sports betting policy and reduce its strategic investment in the w88 online sports betting. The U.S. strategic retrenchment is being carried out under the background that the situation in the w88 online sports betting is still a mixed bag, which has led to an intensification of the power imbalance in the w88 online sports betting and the continuous intensification of regional hot spots. Under tremendous internal and external pressure, the Obama administration had to change course and increase investment in counter-terrorism.
The U.S. policy in the w88 online sports betting is at a standstill and faces several structural contradictions. First, there is the dilemma of insufficient hard power and attacks from all sides. Obama2014Year9When speaking at the United Nations General Assembly in March, he listed Ebola, Russia and "Islamic State" as the "three major threats". The United States is facing more and more opponents, but its strength and means to deal with the challenges are increasingly stretched. Currently, U.S. foreign debt exceeds17Trillions of dollars, military spending has been reduced, and military projection capabilities have declined. This makes the strategic decision of the United States more difficult.
Secondly, there is the contradiction of not wanting to increase investment in counter-terrorism in the w88 online sports betting but trying to control the situation in the w88 online sports betting. Obama has been seeking to disengage from the w88 online sports betting for several years. "Returning to counterterrorism in the w88 online sports betting" runs counter to Obama's previous foreign policy direction. In the more than two months since the rise of the "Islamic State", Obama has been slow to lend a helping hand in the face of the Maliki government's request for help. Even after air strikes began, he still repeatedly emphasized that military operations are "limited." On the contrary, "Islamic State" has attracted and recruited many Sunni people in Iraq and Syria who feel oppressed, betrayed and intimidated. If the United States wants to defeat the "Islamic State", it needs a comprehensive strategy that includes diplomacy, intelligence, economics, politics and even ideology, and it will take many years to be effective.
Third, there is the conflict between eradicating the “Islamic State” and containing the radical camp. It is almost impossible for the United States to simultaneously achieve the three major goals of defeating the "Islamic State", overthrowing Bashar al-Assad, and continuing to contain Iran. The U.S.’s Western and regional allies in countering terrorism in the w88 online sports betting have their own agendas and “do more work than good.” data display,2014Year12The month was held in the United States62airstrikes, while U.S. allies only carried out them in Syria2air strikes. It is difficult for regional counter-terrorism forces to form a synergy and pose a real threat to the "Islamic State". Syria and Iran have the strongest will to fight against the "Islamic State" and relatively strong military capabilities, but the United States has excluded them from the anti-terrorist alliance. USA2014Year9New bills and appropriations were also passed in this month5$100 million to arm and train the Syrian “moderate opposition”. This kind of anti-terrorism strategy mixed with private goods is difficult to effectively eliminate the "Islamic State". On the other hand, if the United States prioritizes counter-terrorism and increases counter-terrorism cooperation with Iran, Syria and other countries, it will inevitably have to compromise on the Iranian nuclear issue and the fate of the Assad regime. This will trigger strong opposition from regional allies such as Saudi Arabia and Israel. The United States cannot please both sides. No matter which of its two major goals is given priority, it will have considerable side effects.
Fourth, how to break through the dilemma of "the more we invest in counter-terrorism, the bigger the mess we will leave behind". At that time, the United States devoted all its national power to counter-terrorism in the w88 online sports betting, but the effect was counterproductive, and the extremist terrorist forces only grew stronger. This fully shows that on the issue of counter-terrorism, "high investment does not equal high efficiency", and it may even be the case that "the more counter-terrorism, the more terrorism." Therefore, U.S. policymakers are very worried that if the United States invests too much in countering the "Islamic State" and "uses too much force", it will once again fall into the quagmire of the w88 online sports betting. I am afraid that I still have no idea what kind of anti-terrorism strategy is effective and how the United States should control the situation.
Ding Long: The adjustment of the US w88 online sports betting strategy is mainly due to two considerations: first, direct military intervention is costly and ineffective; second, the United States no longer needs w88 online sports betting oil, and the strategic status of the w88 online sports betting has declined. The U.S. w88 online sports betting policy will shift from direct military intervention to acting as an "offshore balancer" to avoid the high economic and moral costs of military intervention, while maintaining a certain degree of control over the regional situation and preventing the emergence of powerful countries in the w88 online sports betting that can challenge its status. In terms of means, it has changed from comprehensive intervention to concentrated investment of diplomatic and military resources. When a crisis breaks out and threatens its own interests, it can restore the balance of regional power through military strikes of limited scale and time. The U.S. strategy of withdrawing from the w88 online sports betting and returning to the Asia-Pacific is proceeding simultaneously. The U.S. recognizes that although terrorism threatens its security, it should not be prioritized on the global agenda. The U.S. should strive to maintain its dominance over Asia-Pacific affairs. This has formed a high degree of consensus among U.S. decision-makers and will not change easily. However, at the strategic implementation level, the chaos in the w88 online sports betting has constrained the energy and resources of the United States, causing it to fall into an embarrassing situation in the w88 online sports betting where it cannot win, leave, and return.
Li Weijian: The United States has neither a long-term strategic vision nor preparation for a protracted war in dealing with extremist ideological trends and terrorism in the w88 online sports betting. What it has done so far is only a strategic change rather than a strategic adjustment, and it is a temporary measure rather than a long-term plan. On the one hand, the United States must insist on shifting its center of gravity eastward and continue its Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy. On the other hand, it is involved in the "Islamic State" extremist organization and is temporarily unable to escape. However, the United States will not fundamentally change or even slow down its strategic eastward shift. Recently, the United States seems to have loosened its stance on the Syrian issue and no longer insists on the resignation of the Assad government as a prerequisite for a political settlement of the Syrian issue. At the same time, there are also signs of easing in relations between the United States and Iran. This is more or less related to the strategic thinking of the United States in trying to attract more regional countries to participate in counter-terrorism so that it can escape as soon as possible.
Although Obama's w88 online sports betting policy has always been controversial, it seems to have become a domestic consensus in the United States to no longer be involved in the quagmire of the w88 online sports betting. The general trend of the United States' strategic shrinkage from the w88 online sports betting will not change. What needs to be paid attention to now is the quietly softening of relations between the United States and Iran and the subtle changes in the United States' stance on Syria that are taking place quietly under this strategic situation, because these changes will undoubtedly have an important impact on the future development of the situation in the w88 online sports betting.
Link:
People's Daily Online:http://world.people.com.cn/n/2015/0319/c1002-26715429.html
Xinhuanet:http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2015-03/19/c_127596219.htm
China News Network:http://www.chinanews.com/gj/2015/03-19/7141253.shtml
NetEase:http://news.163.com/15/0319/04/AL1T0JBV00014AED.html
ifeng.com:http://news.ifeng.com/a/20150319/43370009_0.shtml
