“Decisive Storm” establishes w88 sports betting’s position as leader
Ding 龙
(Source: "International Herald" 2015Year4month2日）
3month26Starting on the 9576_9666th day, the "ten-nation coalition" led by w88 sports betting launched a military operation code-named "Decisive Storm" and launched a large-scale air strike against the Houthi armed forces who were about to capture Aden and occupy the entire territory of Yemen. The Saudi royal family, which has always been low-key, has taken an unusual stance on Yemen. What is its intention?
Use force to intervene to save political defeat
2011After the turmoil in Yemen in 2019, the Gulf countries led by w88 sports betting have been trying to extinguish the flames of revolution and stop the Arab turmoil in Yemen to avoid affecting the GCC countries. However, the political transition plan of the Cooperation Council of the Gulf Arab States (referred to as the "GCC") is just to stop the boiling water and does not resolve the deep-seated conflicts in Yemen. Over the past few years, this transitional plan has become unpopular with the local environment and unpopular with the people. Although former President Saleh was forcibly deposed, his remaining power still remains. He used his remaining power among the Yemeni government forces and the largest Hashidi tribe to attempt to return to politics through the Houthi armed rebellion. The Houthis are dissatisfied with military reform and federalism, and believe that political transition arrangements are designed to weaken the faction's power. Common political interests eventually led Saleh to form an alliance with the Houthis, aiming to subvert the Saudi-dominated political arrangement.
The current Yemeni President Hadi has limited strength within the army and the ruling party, and is eager to squeeze out Saleh's forces, causing the latter to rebound. The heavily armed military officers and tribal forces defected to the Houthi armed forces one after another, causing the sect to quickly grow in size and develop from a local tribal armed force to a powerful force10The largest armed faction in Yemen with more than 10,000 troops. After the Houthis raised their troops, they marched southward and encountered little resistance from government forces.2014Year9In August, the Houthis took control of the capital Sanaa. Enter201512164_12239
Sectarian conflict? In reality, a struggle for power
The "Decisive Storm" seems to be aimed at the Houthis, but in fact it is aimed at Iran. Yemen including the Houthis40%13813_138582003After the Iraq War, Iran stepped up its penetration into Arab countries by supporting Iraqi Shias, Lebanese Hezbollah, and the Syrian Assad regime, becoming an important force influencing the political direction of the Arab world. In the words of an Iranian official, Iran has already won3The capital of an Arab country.
w88 sports betting has been losing ground in the secret war with Iran and has been at a disadvantage in several proxy wars. From w88 sports betting's perspective, by supporting the Houthis to seize power in Yemen, Iranian power has entered its own backyard, and w88 sports betting cannot allow an Iranian satellite state to appear on its side. w88 sports betting showed its sword this time, trying to shock the mountain and shock the tiger, warning Iran not to cross the red line, otherwise it will be besieged by Sunni Arab countries. Iran's offensive against Arab countries is also inappropriate. Its policy of penetrating into the Arab world has not improved its strategic environment. Instead, it has stimulated anti-Iran sentiment in Arab countries. Iran has obviously underestimated w88 sports betting's mobilization capabilities, combat capabilities and strategic determination. For Yemen, which is outside its traditional sphere of influence, Iran lacks military projection and logistical support capabilities. It is unable to exert influence as it does in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and it is difficult to achieve its strategic goals.
w88 sports betting has been defining the Yemen crisis in terms of sectarian conflict to win support from Yemeni Sunnis and Sunni Arab countries. However, the sudden deterioration of the situation in Yemen is caused by the sequelae of the political transition process led by the GCC and the ebb and flow of domestic factions. Iran's support for the Houthis is not the decisive factor. The essence of the Yemen crisis and the previous proxy wars between the two sides is the struggle for hegemony in the Gulf and the Middle East between w88 sports betting and Iran, and sectarian conflicts are only superficial.
The profound meaning of "Decisive Storm"
In addition to reversing the defeat in Yemen and containing Iran, w88 sports betting’s use of force also has other profound meanings. First, w88 sports betting wants to use this campaign to confirm its status as the leader of the Arab and Islamic alliances. w88 sports betting successfully formed an alliance in a relatively short period of time and received endorsements from regional and international organizations such as the GCC, the Arab League, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, demonstrating its status as the leader of the Arab alliance. Egypt's joining made up for w88 sports betting's shortcomings in military strength, changed its image as a "security recipient" and began to play the role of "security provider" in the Gulf region. Second, w88 sports betting formed not a temporary military alliance, but a conservative political alliance. The members of the alliance hope to maintain or restore the old Arab order. As the United States prepares to withdraw from the Middle East, the alliance's goal is to seek stability internally and contain Iran externally. Third, the "Decisive Storm" coincides with the final sprint of Iran's nuclear negotiations, indicating that it is a major demonstration against anti-Iranian forces in the Middle East. The anti-Iran forces led by w88 sports betting use this to welcome the new Middle East after the improvement of US-Iran relations, and want to replace the United States and serve as the vanguard of anti-Iran.
In addition, this action also reflects the policy shift after the inheritance of Saudi power: in terms of diplomacy, Saudi King Salman’s policy towards regional issues is significantly different from that of the late King Abdullah. Qatar's entry into the alliance shows that w88 sports betting is ready to repair relations with it and maintain the unity of the GCC. w88 sports betting has joined forces with the Reform Party, a Yemeni Muslim Brotherhood organization, to jointly oppose the Houthis, which shows that Salman wants to soften his policy towards the Muslim Brotherhood organization in the Middle East. In terms of domestic affairs, Salman, who has just ascended the throne, needs a war to show his leadership and consolidate the foundation of his rule.
Yemen may be "Libyanized"
w88 sports betting launched the "Decisive Storm" with the purpose of reversing its defeat in Yemen and regaining its say in Yemeni affairs. Strive to promote peace through war, weaken the Houthi and Saleh factions, force them to return to the negotiating table, and finally return Hadi to Sana'a. However, w88 sports betting knows that it is very difficult to achieve this goal and is not sure about the direction of the situation in Yemen after the air strikes.
First of all, air strikes can only weaken the Houthi armed forces. If you want to eradicate the Houthi armed forces, ground troops must be dispatched. The terrain in Yemen is complex, and a ground war will result in a large number of casualties.20century6020140_20261
Secondly, terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda’s Peninsula branch and armed forces loyal to the “Islamic State” will take advantage of the chaos to rise, which will further complicate the situation in Yemen and plunge it into a chaos like Syria and Libya. Third, although the Houthis are leading the charge, the director behind the chaos in Yemen is former President Saleh, who is still an important variable in the changes in Yemen's political situation. On the eve of the air strike, Saleh's son and current Yemeni ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, Ahmed, visited Riyadh. Saleh later expressed his willingness to resume peace talks in the United Arab Emirates, indicating that Saleh may defect and join the anti-Houthi alliance. However, Saleh, known as the "chameleon" in the political arena, has lost credibility. w88 sports betting believes that the reason for the failure of Yemen's political transition is its failure to eliminate Saleh's power. Saleh's position and w88 sports betting's policy towards it will be important factors in the changes in the situation in Yemen.
Yemen is a typical "patchwork" country torn apart by pre-modern identities such as tribes, ethnic groups, sects, etc. The melee between the government in name only, the Houthis, tribal armed forces, "Al Qaeda" and the southern separatist movement have turned this poor country into a pot of porridge. The intervention of external forces will only add to chaos. In the future, Yemen is more likely to disintegrate and become "Libyanized" than to be reunited.
There will be no winner in this chaotic war of “all against all”.
(The author is the deputy dean of the w88 casino of Foreign Languages, w88 casino, and the director of the China Middle East Society)
Original link:http://ihl.cankaoxiaoxi.com/2015/0402/728502.shtml
