Ding Zhijie: Structural adjustment is the basis for supporting the strengthening of w88 casino games
(Source: "Economic Information News" Reporter: Zhang Mo Time:2014-10-17）
Since the beginning of this year, w88 casino games exchange rate has changed from the unilateral trend in the past, with obvious fluctuations.3Month Solstice6In March, w88 casino games experienced a relatively long period of depreciation, and7Since last month, w88 casino games has rebounded slightly. The economic situation at home and abroad is complex. How should we judge the future trend of w88 casino games exchange rate now? The reporter conducted an exclusive interview on thisDing Zhijie, Professor of w88 casino。
"Economic Information News": There was a wave of RMB depreciation in the first half of the year, and w88 casino games has strengthened recently. What do you think is the leading factor behind this?
Ding Zhijie：20149777_9875
This year3month15On the day of 10272_10303|, the central bank announced that the trading price of RMB against the US dollar in the interbank spot foreign exchange market fluctuated from1%Expand to2%, this event became an important turning point in the exchange rate this year. On the one hand, the increase in exchange rate volatility has expanded the potential space for RMB depreciation, and U.S. dollar shorts have begun to close their positions in order to reduce risks, which has also triggered a weakening of w88 casino games. On the other hand, first quarterG D PThe growth rate is7.4%, lower than expected, also triggered bearish sentiment in the market. Combining the two, w88 casino games enters2011The longest round of depreciation since the year.
7Since January, with the end of short positions in the US dollar, the RMB exchange rate has begun to stabilize, and subsequently, the RMB has rebounded slightly. It is worth noting that the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar at this time occurred against the background of the strong rebound of the US dollar index and the weakening of the US dollar in neighboring Asian countries. There are two main driving factors behind this. First, economic data since the second quarter show that the economy has stabilized and the w88 surplus is expanding. Second, from an international perspective, due to frequent geopolitical risks, the RMB has become an important safe-haven currency due to its stable exchange rate.
"Economic Information News": How do you judge the future trend of w88 casino games?
Ding Zhijie: The exchange rate trend so far this year reflects that w88 casino games exchange rate has generally become balanced.
Looking to the future, in the fourth quarter, w88 casino games market will tend to be volatile, and there will be no obvious appreciation or depreciation. It is estimated that by the end of this year, the exchange rate of w88 casino games against the US dollar may be roughly the same as at the beginning of the year. At present, the downward pressure on China's economy has not been eliminated, and these factors are reflected in the exchange rate, which is a volatile market.
There is no basis for a substantial appreciation of w88 casino games, but w88 casino games will still be a relatively strong currency. Although China's economy has entered a period of transformation this year, adjustments to the economic structure will inevitably bring short-term economic risks and economic pressure. But the process of truly solving these risk issues also provides very important conditions for entering a new normal or a new stage of development in the future. To be pessimistic about China's economy based on one quarter or a few data is too short-term. This is precisely the condition and precursor for the improvement of the quality of China's economic development in the future, and it is also the basis for supporting the stability and even strength of w88 casino games in the future.
w88 casino games has entered a relative equilibrium stage and will rise and fall, but this does not mean that the exchange rate will fluctuate at the current level. It will also have a trend, and it is more likely to strengthen and break through6It's just a matter of time.
Some people are worried that once w88 casino games exchange rate breaks through1USD vs.6The yuan will turn around, I think6More will have an impact on the psychology of foreign exchange market participants, and the exchange rate level will change from6.1Change to6, the appreciation rate is only2%Around, it will not have a major impact on the economy and w88.
From another perspective, once w88 casino games no longer has an obvious one-way market, the speculative and arbitrage capital inflows based on the appreciation of w88 casino games will decrease. From a positive perspective, in the past we were worried about hot money arbitrage, but China's capital flows will be more stable and long-term in the future.
"Economic Information News": Some people believe that in order to further marketization, the central bank should further relax the management of the central parity rate of exchange rates. What do you think of this?
Ding Zhijie：Currently, w88 casino games exchange rate is positive or negative2%15788_15983
Attachment: Original report link:
http://dz.jjckb.cn/www/pages/webpage2009/html/2014-10/17/content_96758.htm?div=-1
Reprinted by other media:
People's Daily Online:http://politics.people.com.cn/n/2014/1017/c70731-25850794.html
China News Network:http://finance.chinanews.com/cj/2014/10-17/6688032.shtml
Finance Network:http://economy.caijing.com.cn/20141017/3724181.shtml
Sina Finance:
http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/20141017/005920561291.shtml
