According to data released by the General Administration of Customs,2014my country’s total import and export value in the first quarter of 20205.9Trillion yuan, including exports3Trillion yuan, import2.9Trillion yuan, down respectively compared with the same period last year3.7%、6.1%and1.2％%. Also calculated in U.S. dollars, total import and export value during the same period9658.8$100 million, down1%. where, export4913.1$100 million, down3.4%;Import4745.7$100 million, growth1.6%. It can be seen that the decline in exports is the driving factor leading to the decline in the total value of imports and exports.

The increase or decrease in w88 value may come from two reasons: one is the market factors that affect w88 behavior, which is the fundamental; the other is the measurement of w88 behavior, which is the symptom. The total export value in the first quarter of this year showed negative growth, either due to weak external demand and the lack of competitiveness of our products, or due to statistical errors, or a combination of the two.

According to information from other sources, demand in external markets, mainly developed countries, is slowly recovering, and the competitiveness of China's export commodities is unlikely to weaken sharply in the short term. According to Director Zheng Yuesheng of the Statistics Department of the General Administration of Customs,“In the first quarter of last year, there were some special factors in my country’s foreign w88 import and export, which pushed up the year-on-year base. If these factors are excluded, my country's foreign w88 imports and exports are still operating within a basically reasonable range, and we cannot simply conclude that foreign w88 is declining”. That's a euphemistic way of saying there's a problem with statistics.

Two, right“Special factors”What do you understand?

2013First quarter of the year“Special factors”Occurs in exports from the Mainland to Hong Kong.1Month sum2The year-on-year growth rate of exports to Hong Kong in March was already very high, but3The month’s year-on-year growth rate is extremely high, reaching92.9%, Department1995Year3Not seen in months. Because the Chinese Spring Festival fluctuates with the Gregorian calendar date, people usually do not simply study1、2Monthly data is often the first3Monthly data merged observations.2013The year-on-year growth rate of exports to Hong Kong in the first quarter of 2020 was as high as 31046_31066|74.2%。

for2013The year-on-year growth rate of exports to Hong Kong in the first quarter of 2020 was seriously high, and experts and media questioned the data“There is a lot of moisture”。4month10Zheng Yuesheng, Director of the Statistics Department of the General Administration of Customs, questioned China’s w88 data at a press conferenceExplained from several aspects:

The first aspect is the difference in statistical practices between the mainland and Hong Kong. When the goods are cleared through customs in the Mainland, the customs does not know its destination country. They only know that it is sent to Hong Kong, so it is counted as exported to Hong Kong. When the goods are cleared through customs in Hong Kong, the customs knows that it is eventually exported to other countries, so the goods are not classified as imported from the mainland. This is considered to be the main reason for the statistical difference between the mainland and Hong Kong.

The second aspect is the changes in logistics and distribution of multinational enterprises in recent years.With the acceleration of the gradient transfer of domestic industries, the spatial distance between upstream parts suppliers and downstream processing is increasing, allowing upstream and downstream companies to choose to complete their supplies through Hong Kong, which has correspondingly increased the growth rate of mainland exports to Hong Kong. In addition, the warehouses of some international logistics and distribution centers in Hong Kong have been moved to the neighboring Shenzhen area, and the logistics, distribution and distribution centers of multinational companies are still in Hong Kong. However, due to the relatively high warehousing costs in Hong Kong, the warehouse of the warehousing center is located in Shenzhen. In this case, the goods it distributes and distributes are more frequently transferred between Hong Kong and the mainland, which also drives the growth rate of the mainland's exports to Hong Kong.

The third aspect is what some media reported“Some companies use the export of goods to bring in capital inflows to take advantage of the RMB interest rate differential between the mainland and Hong Kong”. Zheng Yuesheng said that the next step for Customs“We will conduct further in-depth and detailed investigations and studies with relevant departments, hoping to thoroughly clarify the various reasons for the extraordinary growth of w88 with Hong Kong, and take corresponding management measures as necessary when necessary”。

Zheng Yuesheng said:“Every dollar included in customs import and export w88 statistics can be found corresponding to an actual customs declaration.”

5month9Day, the Ministry of Commerce held a meeting“Foreign w88 structure adjustment”Special press conference. Yao Jian, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, said that statistical data are generally supported by the real economy, and relevant control measures will be adopted to regulate relevant doubts.

It should be said that the above-mentioned abnormal behavior has indeed attracted the attention of relevant parties and corresponding measures have been taken. after5～6After the monthly downward adjustment,7Starting from January, exports to Hong Kong have gradually entered a period of steady growth.

2014Year1month10Zheng Yuesheng was asked this question again at a press conference on 48646_48692|. In addition to reiterating his signing explanation, he also firmly stated that the official will not2013Year data are adjusted.

Zheng Yuesheng mentioned four reasons. The first aspect is long-standing institutional factors, and the second aspect is the trend factors of the industry itself. If they work, it will not only push up exports in the first quarter, but also push up all quarters throughout the year. Only the third aspect can be a temporary factor and can be“Corresponding measures”Suppressed, made5The export data area after the month is normal.

The customs follows a series of regulations on goods w88 statistics issued by international organizations to carry out statistics on customs clearance goods. The first principle in this series of regulations is the principle of increase or decrease in the amount of material resources: any w88 that causes an increase or decrease in the amount of material resources in an economy falls within the scope of international w88 statistics. This is where the legitimacy of w88 data comes from. this year1month153460_534991month3Day,13日和17My words were quoted in three reports on Japan:“No matter what the purpose is, as long as the import and export documents are correct and the statistics are carried out in accordance with the law, there is no way to correct the biased data unless the customs statistics system itself is corrected.”In this regard, I would like to point out that the total interview time that day was up to2Hour, what I said is definitely not just this paragraph; the words quoted are slightly different from my original intention, because the text has not been verified by me. My words are3Meaning: First of all, I am sure the customs data is legal. Secondly, (2013years ago4monthly exports to Hong Kong) data are biased. Thirdly, the current customs statistics system applies a one-time release procedure to data. The implication is that a secondary release procedure should be considered, allowing adjustments to the first release of data after multi-party verification. This is also a common statistical practice in many developed countries.

3. Exclusion“Special factors”, what is the result of the measurement?

Based on the current customs statistics system, the published data are final and cannot be adjusted. As a research, we might as well study2013Year1～4Let’s try some adjustments to China’s exports to Hong Kong to see how it affects China’s w88 in goods“Climb to the top”and“After reaching the summit”65235_652662014Year4month17said at a press conference:“If eliminated2013The factors responsible for the unusually high base of w88 with Hong Kong during the same period of the year, in terms of US dollars, the actual growth of exports and imports in the first quarter4.6%and9.6%。”, based on these two growth rates, the adjusted2013The value of mainland exports to Hong Kong, the value of imports, and the value of imports and exports in the first quarter of 2020. And then calculate“Special factors”Cause2013The inflated increase in w88 value in the first quarter of 2019. See the table for specific data and calculations1。

Table1 2013Estimation of the inflated increase in w88 value between the Mainland and Hong Kong in the first quarter of this year (unit: 100 million U.S. dollars)

Source: Press conference of the Statistics Department of the General Administration of Customs (2013.4.10；2014.4.14), Ministry of Commerce press conference (2014.4.17）。

2013China’s w88 with other economies was not found“Special factors”, so the total annual import and export value is only affected by w88 with Hong Kong. Total value of imports and exports from original release4.16In trillions of dollars, minus715.7billion US dollars, the adjusted total import and export value is approximately4.09Trillions of dollars. This figure is still higher than comparable figures for the same period in the United States0.18Trillion US dollars, so it does not affect the conclusion that China’s total w88 in goods has surpassed the United States and ranks first in the world.

IV. Prospects for China’s w88 in goods

Minister Gao Hucheng said in the article "From a Big Trading Country to a Powerful Trading Country":“The road to the top is not easy. It is even more difficult to maintain the number one position in the world.”

2013At the beginning of the year, analyzing2012When China's w88 in goods has surpassed that of the United States, I put forward a concept called“Cross critical state of China’s w88 volume time series and U.S. w88 volume time series”. As shown in the picture1shown from China“Accession into WTO”Until2012Before the year, the US w88 volume in goods was running at a high level, while China's w88 volume in goods was running at a low level. The small differences in statistical caliber at this time do not affect the conclusion that the U.S. w88 volume is greater than China's w88 volume. However, China's w88 volume in goods running at a low level is higher than that of the US w88 volume running at a high level. If no special circumstances occur that cause the trend to reverse, China's w88 volume curve will definitely intersect with the US w88 volume curve, and then run at a high level, while the US w88 volume will in turn run at a low level. And2012This year has just entered the year when two curves cross. In this critical state, small differences in statistical caliber lead to different conclusions about the larger and smaller w88 volume between the United States and China. U.S. Department of Commerce on w88 in Goods“One Three Numbers”: Balance of payments data, Census Bureau data and WTO comparable data. Issues that were previously controversial in the United States have now arrived2012108566_1085932013The situation has developed. According to comparable WTO data, China has surpassed the United States. Has China stepped out of the cross-critical zone? I'm afraid not sure. by adjusted data,2013The total value of China’s w88 in goods was greater than that of the United States2100billion US dollars, equivalent to20Days of performance. This is not a particularly significant difference. If we want to secure our No. 1 seat in the world, we still need to continue to work hard. Moreover, we still face the arduous task of strengthening w88.

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