There is a long-term solution to smogJCurve effect

Zhao Zhongxiu

(Source: "Chinese Social Sciences Journal"2013Year1month10Day547Issue )

[Core tip] Greenhouse gases and air pollution have a certain degree of input, and emission reduction efforts in one city or one place will be offset by the input of emissions from other regions. Smog is accelerating and forcing a comprehensive transformation of my country's economic development model, promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and developing a low-carbon economy.

2013Since the beginning of the year, there have been frequent temperature inversions in central and eastern my country. The wind is still and the warm and moist air masses in the upper atmosphere tightly cover the pollutants in the cold air masses in the lower layers, making it difficult for them to float to high altitudes. Smog strikes again and again.

People seem to be a little pessimistic about the problem of smog control. Short-term vehicle restrictions, construction site shutdowns, factory shutdowns and other measures are only a drop in the bucket. They can neither eliminate the smog immediately nor be used continuously. There may be an optimistic side to the problem, since196110088_101092013Year1The month has reached a new high. After the peak, there may be a trough or a normal state. Maybe the situation will not be so serious in the future. However, people still have to worry: Will the smog continue to rage like this? Central leaders attach great importance to this serious air pollution problem and have instructed that practical and effective measures must be taken to give the people hope with actions. They point out that solving the problem requires a long-term process, but something must be done. However, if air pollution is not eradicated, the smog will not be cleared. This also determines that China's control of air pollution will be a long-term and arduous task. Although effective measures have been taken, before China's greenhouse gas emissions reach a peak and then decline, the frequency of smog attacks may become more frequent under the climate change situation, and our country will face a situation where smog weather continues to worsen and then improves, that is, there is a long-term situationJCurve effect.

Why is it possible that my country’s air pollution will continue to worsen? It is an indisputable fact that my country has become the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases. The pollutants that cause haze, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and inhalable particulate matter, are also increasing unabated. They are collected through vehicle exhaust, coal-fired heating exhaust, industrial production exhaust, and dust generated from construction sites and road traffic. Under specific temperature inversion conditions, smog covers a large area of ​​the country.

The proportion of coal is too high New energy is an embarrassing task

There are many difficulties in transforming this traditional economic development model with high investment and high pollution. Coal accounts for the proportion of primary energy consumption in my country72%, long-term planning arrived2050The year can be reduced to50%Below, and the current energy efficiency of coal is generally only about half of the world's advanced level. That is, burning twice as much coal will obtain the same energy, but the value created may be less. When our country's gross national product is equivalent to Japan's, our country's energy consumption (coal equivalent) is four times that of Japan. my country's energy endowment determines the difficulty of energy conservation and emission reduction in the future.

Our country has confirmed its arrival2020New energy, mainly renewable energy, accounted for primary energy consumption15%my country has also taken a leading position in the world in the development of new energy technologies. However, new energy can only solve a small part of my country's new energy demand. And when the smart grid has not yet been fully constructed, the overall economic cost of renewable energy such as wind energy and solar energy is much higher than that of traditional fossil energy. Under this structure where energy endowment is rigid and energy demand continues to expand due to population growth and urbanization, my country's greenhouse gas and indirectly related pollutant emissions will continue to rise. Some scholars predict that its peak may reach203013480_13505

Greenhouse gases and air pollution have certain inputs

Greenhouse gases and air pollution have a certain degree of input. Efforts to reduce emissions in one city or one place will be offset by the input of emissions from other regions. For example, Beijing has made a lot of efforts to reduce the proportion of coal burning. This heating season only burned coal2000Ten thousand tons of coal, but the neighboring Hebei Province is burning3.5Billions of tons of coal. diffuse140The haze of more than 10,000 square kilometers is the result of the joint action of various regions. However, the effects of energy conservation and emission reduction vary from place to place, and there are also gaps in local governments' understanding of environmental governance and their investment in work. Therefore, responding to climate change and controlling air pollution is a long-term and arduous task.

So, does this lead to a pessimistic conclusion? Not really. Judging from international experience, London, the former city of fog, and Pittsburgh, the city of steel, have both transformed from severely polluted cities into ecological cities. Their economic structures have also been highly optimized, becoming representatives of modern ecologically civilized cities. As far as my country is concerned, haze is accelerating and forcing a comprehensive transformation of the economic development model, promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure and developing a low-carbon economy. In terms of energy structure, based on my country's energy supply structure, we must vigorously develop and apply clean coal technology, improve the energy efficiency of fossil energy, increase the proportion of clean energy as much as possible, and conduct target assessments on energy conservation and emission reduction in key industries such as power, construction, and transportation, thereby reducing the carbon intensity of economic development.

In terms of economic structure, we must vigorously develop the tertiary industry, pay equal attention to the production service industry and the consumer service industry, expand domestic demand, expand employment, and improve people's livelihood. Within the manufacturing industry, we must resolutely eliminate backward production capacity, carry out technological transformation of existing energy facilities, optimize international production networks, improve the distribution pattern of international value chains, transfer some production of processing w88 to other countries, and follow up on commercial services. Strengthen the enforcement of environmental protection laws, guide the interests of local governments, and determine the observability and verifiability of ecological civilization construction goals. Form citizen consciousness of low-carbon development, elevate energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental protection to the level of citizen morality and social culture, and use the culture of sustainable development to guide social progress.

The above changes are endogenous changes under the conditions of tightening environmental pressure in my country. Such actions will relieve environmental pressure and promote trend changes in my country's greenhouse gas emissions. By increasing efforts, we can promote positive changes as soon as possible, so thatJThe latter part of the curve effect can be realized in advance and blue skies and white clouds can be restored to normal, instead of taking chances with the atmospheric circulation.

(Author’s affiliation: International Institute of Low Carbon Economy, w88 casino)

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