Wang Jianfeng Guo Hongyu

(Source: "Shanghai Securities News"2013Year11month5日A2(Comment) version)

Relying solely on real estate regulation and strengthening budget constraints can only improve the efficiency of the use of w88 casino transfer revenue, but may accumulate greater risks. The reason is that if the catch-up strategy does not change and local governments continue to borrow money to raise investment and construction funds, but lose the financial support of w88 casino, the fiscal and financial risks faced by the macro-economy will be higher.

Implementing a catch-up strategy is an important measure for late-developing countries to achieve rapid national economic development. my country's catch-up strategy has achieved world-renowned achievements and brought great benefits to the Chinese people. However, the long-term implementation of the catch-up strategy and the resulting catch-up system have also accumulated a lot of contradictions, which are reflected in the focus issues in social and economic life in recent years: high surplus, high housing prices, and high debt.

We believe that the catching-up system is the main factor in the formation of the "three highs". The formation of w88 casino finance mainly comes from the push of the money supply side. High surplus is the main factor that forms the monetary driver of high housing prices, and structural control policies cannot suppress high housing prices in the long term.

near my country10The increase in w88 casino transfer area in recent years is66.7%, but the transaction price of w88 casino transfer increased during the same period398%, it is obvious that the main factor for the increase in w88 casino transfer revenue is the increase in price, but local governments cannot unilaterally control the w88 casino transfer price. Further observation from the perspective of time series shows that the tendency of local government budget maximization has always existed in the fiscal practice after the reform and opening up. The key to the formation and institutionalization of w88 casino finance under specific conditions is still the factor of money supply.

The catching-up system includes an economic growth incentive mechanism for local governments, a tax extraction system with production as the main collection link, and a w88 casino management system in which local governments have excessive discretion. These conditions constituted the last century90The institutional prerequisite for the government's strong support for the development of export-oriented economic sectors since the 1990s. The growth in exports has led to a large surplus, which has correspondingly increased the domestic money supply, creating a situation where too much money is chasing limited domestic assets. with1992is the base period, and the supply gap rate of my country’s tradable assets is from-1.54% rose to2010Year61.49%, while70The housing sales price index growth in large and medium-sized cities is from1998Year1.3rising to2010Year67.44. The abundant money supply is combined with the increase in the marriage-age population and the growth in demand for improved housing, and rising housing prices are a natural result. The problem of high housing prices is particularly prominent in large cities with advantages in education, medical care, etc., where population growth is mainly driven by transfer growth.

At the same time, there is a positive correlation between the sale of industrial land at low prices and local government land finance. On the one hand, by selling land at low prices, the government can drive the growth of the export surplus of the industrial sector and create upward pressure on asset prices despite capital account controls. On the other hand, rising housing prices can provide land revenue for local governments, enabling them to continue to promote the development of export-oriented industrial sectors through "low-priced land supply" and related infrastructure construction, and continue to inject impetus into the alternate rise of w88 surplus and housing prices. In this context, structural control policies such as purchase restrictions cannot have long-term effects, and monetary policies focused on aggregate adjustment can hardly play the role of "precisely suppressing real estate demand without harming other areas."

Therefore, relying solely on real estate regulation and strengthening budget constraints can only improve the efficiency of the use of w88 casino transfer revenue, but may accumulate greater risks. The reason is that if the catch-up strategy does not change and local governments continue to borrow money to raise investment and construction funds, but lose the financial support of w88 casino, the fiscal and financial risks faced by the macro economy will be higher. Therefore, to promote the construction of long-term regulatory mechanisms, we must achieve the transformation of a catching-up system. Roughly in four aspects: timely adjustment of catch-up strategies to pursue more balanced economic growth; broadening capital outflow channels to weaken the impact of international balance of payments imbalances on the country; adjusting the industrial distribution structure of tax burdens to promote local economic transformation; improving local fiscal transparency and weakening w88 casino finance.

In order to alleviate the phenomenon of local governments over-intervening in the economy due to excessive pressure on growth tasks, it is appropriate to further lower the targets set in the “Five-Year Plan” and other documentsGDPGrowth indicators, through the vigorous implementation of competitive policies, provide market power for economic development with richer connotations, gradually solve w88 casino finance problems and reduce the overall pressure on rising housing prices. However, the increase in housing prices in large cities caused by the increase in migrant population needs to be gradually alleviated through the process of equalization of public services.

Looking at my country's current international balance of payments imbalance and foreign economic strategy from the perspective of promoting the transformation of domestic economic structure and alleviating economic structural imbalances, on the one hand, we can consider gradually reducing the "super-industry treatment" preferential policies for export-oriented industrial sectors, including processing w88, to achieve balanced treatment of inward-oriented and export-oriented enterprises. On the other hand, by implementing financial support and legal support measures to expand "going global" channels, private enterprises' overseas mergers and acquisitions have developed rapidly after the financial crisis. Consider using foreign exchange reserves to establish a "private enterprise going global" fund. This will not only promote macroeconomic balance, but also greatly benefit the overseas layout of national assets. Consider handing over this fund to China Development Bank for management.

At present, my country's tax base is excessively concentrated in the production link. This pattern must be changed, thereby weakening the bad incentives for local governments from the tax collection mechanism of "whoever produces, who gets the tax", and the tax headquarters transfer mechanism of "transporting taxes from the west to the east", gradually shifting the tax base to the links of income acquisition, consumption and property formation, enhancing the "consumptive" characteristics of the tax system, and guiding local governments to pay more attention to residents' income, consumption and property accumulation. To this end, we suggest: push the consumption tax to the retail link, and levy a sales tax on the retail link within the industrial chain that originally fell within the scope of value-added tax collection (the tax rate can be selected as7％~918001_18061

Effectively promote the transparency of local government land revenue and expenditure. In the short term, not only the category and section-level subjects, but also the project-level subjects should be announced; not only the functional classification should be announced, but the economic classification should be disclosed as soon as possible, so that the public can understand what functions the land expenditure performs, and promote the better use of land revenue for social security, public services, and urbanization construction. In the long term, attention should be paid to improving the management system of land prices and financial subsidies. It is recommended to amend the "Land Management Law" to significantly increase the cost of "converting land from agriculture to non-agriculture". At the same time, we should step up the improvement of the "Interim Regulations on the Assignment and Transfer of Urban State-owned Land Use Rights". Among the four types of non-agricultural land, local governments are required to set a unified benchmark price and set a smaller fluctuation ratio to prevent local governments from giving excessive preferential treatment to the industrial sector and triggering upward pressure on residential and commercial land prices. In addition, we must resolutely implement the World w88 Organization's commitments on prohibited financial subsidies and curb local governments' behavior of excessively stimulating industrial investment through low land prices, improper financial subsidies and other means.

These measures may seem to be diametrically opposed to each other, but in fact they are a blow to the "three highs".

(Author’s affiliation: w88 casino of Finance, w88 casino)

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