Will emerging w88 online casino become the source of crises
Zhao Zhongxiu: Although there are short-term fluctuations
Will continue to make progress
((Source: "China Times"2013-7-10 Reporter:
Shang Hao)
The third quarter international economic and financial situation outlook report released by the Bank of China not long ago analyzed that global funds may continue to withdraw from emerging markets in the third quarter. The rise in market interest rates and bond yields and the strength of the U.S. dollar index may cause funds to return to the United States. The liquidity of emerging markets will face tremendous pressure in the short term.
At the same time, there are many signs that the w88 online casino of some developed w88 online casino such as the United States are struggling to emerge from the shadow of recession. And when the flow of capital reverses and the market atmosphere suddenly changes, faced with the shock, in the past20Is it possible that emerging w88 online casino, which have sustained rapid economic growth for many years, will become the last victims of the sequelae of the financial crisis, or even become the source of a new crisis? Reporter’s exclusive interview on thisVice President Zhao Zhongxiu of the w88 casino。
No need to worry too much for now
"China Times"：近来人们看到一些新兴经济体国家出现流动资金突然紧张以及信贷市场突然冻结，资产被严重抛售的状况。 Is it because investors are afraid of market risks?
Zhao Zhongxiu: There is indeed such a factor. From the perspective of the global market, the stabilization of the U.S. economy has made it more attractive to global capital. In addition, the adjustment of the U.S. economy has a clear goal, which is to continue to lead the world economy and maintain a strong U.S. dollar. The United States announced that it will withdraw from quantitative easing, indicating that U.S. dollar interest rates will rise and the U.S. dollar will return to a strong era, causing a reallocation of global funds. This kind of adjustment in the global capital market should be reasonable, but it will cause an impact in the short term, which is obviously detrimental to emerging w88 online casino.
In fact,2008年金融危机爆发以来，类似的冲击不断出现，这次虽不会是最后一波，但对于新兴经济体的冲击，是五年来一个动态调整的结果。而新兴经济体在这五年中并非经济危机的中心，其并没有像欧美那样进行自身调整的压力，所以，相对于欧美的经济衰退，新兴经济体自身的经济结构调整进程非常缓慢，面对着一个经历了衰退打击甚至洗礼的结构调整的以美国为主的发达经济体，新兴经济体原有的好的增长态势，正在发生改变。
From the perspective of emerging w88 online casino as a whole, what everyone is more concerned about is the performance of the Chinese economy. Because China's economy is the new locomotive of the world economy, it has contributed a considerable part of the world's economic growth in the past few years. It not only has an impact on the w88 online casino of the United States and Europe, but also has a direct or indirect impact on the w88 online casino of some emerging w88 online casino, including BRICS countries such as Russia, Brazil, and India. Now China's economy is slowing down due to its own adjustment, and its pressure has appeared and been amplified to some extent, which has caused concerns that a large amount of capital will flow out of China. This concern has appeared repeatedly in the past few years, but in fact there has not been an obvious pressure for capital outflows. This is because China's monitoring of capital inflows and outflows is relatively strict and very effective and in place. Therefore, I don't think the outside world should worry too much about this.
"China Times": Is it because the large amount of liquidity in the past caused trouble in emerging markets and accelerated the appreciation of their local currencies, thus hitting the export industries that emerging markets heavily rely on, causing hot money and spawning asset bubbles, quickly penetrating the shortcomings of the crisis into their real w88 online casino?
Zhao Zhongxiu：从全球背景看，大宗商品价格在2008After the outbreak of the crisis in 2013, there was a short-term sharp decline. After that, various countries adopted economic stimulus policies, followed by quantitative easing to varying degrees. Liquidity is chasing assets and commodities. Therefore, after the sharp decline in commodity prices, there was a retaliatory rebound. However, the world economic growth is still weak and cannot be supported by expectations alone. Therefore, we have seen that commodity prices have actually been falling in recent years. Whether it is iron ore, grain, or crude oil, their prices have not returned to their historical highs. In a sense, this is a return to rationality. As the economy slows down again, commodity prices continue to fall, which makes many speculative funds withdraw from it to find new shelters, and a strong US dollar emerges as the times require, believing that the US dollar is a place for future arbitrage. There is currently such a trend. From this point of view, the world's economic leader has begun to tilt towards the US market again, with the Dow Jones Index and the Nasdaq Index reaching new highs.
Looking at the Chinese economy, we can see that growth is weak from the stock market being hit at the bottom and from the so-called money shortage that has appeared in some areas. In addition to the expected factors, another factor is from this year3Since January, the export growth rate has been very low, only3%About. This number itself has recently been exposed as being false and is known as fake exports. Among the declining exports, there are actually a large number of foreign-invested enterprises that have experienced a decline in exports. Among them are factors such as the adjustment of foreign investment's production layout, including the re-industrialization of the United States that has led to the return of overseas funds from the United States, such as Intel's reduction in investment in China, and the transfer of some foreign investment to developing countries. All these have a relatively large inhibitory effect on China's exports. This has amplified the pessimism about China's future economic growth expectations and also exposed the structural problems of China's economy. So, where are the new sources of growth momentum? There is no clear starting point that can be started immediately. Therefore, we see that China’s economic growth rate continues to decline, which intensifies everyone’s expectations.
Therefore, it is not surprising that the China factor is now a relatively large influence on the global market, causing concerns from all parties. Looking at other important BRICS countries, such as Russia, Brazil, and India, their economic conditions are not very good. Brazil even has riots that make the government feel inexplicable.
Growth prospects remain optimistic
"China Times": What are the main risks in emerging w88 online casino that you think require high vigilance?
Zhao Zhongxiu: Emerging economies can actually be divided into two types of countries: One type is manufacturing-based economies like China and India, among which India is catching up with China and is also investing in infrastructure. However, India has a serious protectionist tendency and still rejects foreign investment. For example, it rejects China's attempts to invest in telecommunications and equipment manufacturing in India. The w88 deficit problem between China and India remains unsolved; the other category is resource-based countries like Russia and Brazil. But its own civilian R&D and manufacturing industries are relatively weak. When the market is good, the economy can rely on rising resource prices to maintain good development. However, when resource prices fall, problems are exposed. The social expenditure system established based on revenue from oil and other resource products may be unsustainable and prone to fiscal crises.我们看到，目前俄罗斯的经济增速已经下滑严重。
Therefore, how to enhance the endogenous growth momentum is an issue that must be of primary concern. Industrial transformation and upgrading is a path that emerging w88 online casino, including China, must follow. At present, the traditional international division of labor seems to have been locked in and has not been broken. Therefore, if we want to continue to develop and enhance economic independence, we should invest more in technological progress and research and development. In addition, more attention should be paid to the inherent needs of overall social development.
"China Times": In the so-called post-crisis era, most emerging w88 online casino not only face possible risks in adjusting their economic structures, but also face serious social conflicts. Will this make them quickly enter a period of high economic and social risks when the period of high growth comes to an end, and may also become the source of new crises?
Zhao Zhongxiu: This possibility cannot be said to be impossible, but the current adjustment is a cautious adjustment that has been carried out in a general recession of the world economy rather than a high-growth environment, so it will not trigger something like1998Problems like the Southeast Asian crisis in 18121_18174| The current relatively mild adjustment may last for a longer period of time. But the main question is, where is the new driving force for growth?
For example, China is determined to transform its economic growth model, and its top leaders have made it clear that they will never use itGDPOn heroes. There are actually many new economic growth points in China, including the development of medical care, education, and human resources, which all require large investments, and the return on investment will actually be much higher than the return on infrastructure investment. Even in terms of infrastructure investment, there is much potential in the short term. For example, many dead ends on highways in China can continue to be connected. This work needs to continue to be completed. In addition, the construction of trunk lines and branch lines such as high-speed rail and civil aviation, as well as the control of environmental pollution, all require a large amount of investment. Therefore, I remain optimistic about the prospects for economic growth.
"China Times": In other words, emerging w88 online casino still have great potential for economic growth in the future?
Zhao Zhongxiu: Although the international economic order needs to be changed, it is not a subversive or revolutionary change. It is not that emerging w88 online casino have subverted developed w88 online casino, and their dominance is still in the hands of developed countries. It's just that the United States is somewhat less capable than it was in the past. Therefore, the United States still holds a positive attitude and talks with the Asia-Pacific and the European Union.
Since emerging w88 online casino have a large population and their own markets, and the world economy is becoming more and more interconnected, the resulting spillovers are also relatively strong. As long as emerging w88 online casino are not closed, they will make progress. Since last year, the economic aggregate of emerging w88 online casino has exceeded that of developed w88 online casino. Although there will be twists and turns in the future, it should be a trend to continue to expand their share of the world economy. In other words, emerging w88 online casino will have economic shocks in the short term, which also implies the need for continuous structural adjustments, but emerging w88 online casino will not become the source of crises in the future.
Attachment: Original report link
http://www.chinatimes.cc/pages/129551/moreInfo.htm
Reprinted by other media:
Sina Finance:
http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20130710/231216082121.shtml
ifeng.com:http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20130710/10133112_0.shtml
China Reform Forum:
http://www.chinareform.org.cn/open/economy/201307/t20130711_171250.htm
