The Diaoyu Islands dispute and China’s foreign policy prospects
Xiong Guangqing
（Source:"Lianhe Zaobao"Time:October 10, 2012)
Recently, China has adopted a series of countermeasures in the dispute over the Diaoyu Islands, demonstrating w88 casino national strength and the diplomatic wisdom of the Chinese government. This not only contradicts the weak foreign policy that has been criticized by the Chinese people for a long time, but also shows a relatively strong external performance. The tougher stance seems to indicate that w88 casino foreign policy is undergoing some major changes, and it has also very effectively calmed and resolved the domestic people's dissatisfaction with the government's domestic and foreign policies, effectively improved the government's authority, and created a good social atmosphere for the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.
However, w88 casino foreign policy will not undergo fundamental changes in the near future or in the short term. The top priority of w88 casino foreign policy is still to strive for an international environment of peaceful development. Although the foreign policy of "keeping a low profile" has been criticized by many people, it will still be the keynote of w88 casino foreign policy for a long time. Taking the path of peaceful development is an inevitable choice for w88 casino diplomacy from the perspective of w88 casino historical traditions, national temperament and social development trends. From the perspective of the international power structure, there will be no fundamental changes in the short term. There is no emerging force that can fundamentally subvert the existing international order. As a beneficiary of the existing international order, China is more interested in maintaining the existing international order than challenging it. Of course, in certain regions and on certain specific issues, there may be phenomena that challenge the existing international order, which may affect changes in certain specific foreign affairs policies of China. However, it will not lead to fundamental changes in the strategic goals and means of w88 casino diplomacy.
From the perspective of the decision-making mechanism of w88 casino diplomacy, because w88 casino top leadership has achieved collective leadership (some people regard China as a country with strong authoritarianism, but it is definitely not a country with centralized personal power. "One person has the final say" simply does not work in today's China), personal factors can have an impact on w88 casino foreign policy It has a certain influence, but this influence is very limited. It is difficult for us to see the personal color of w88 casino foreign policy. This makes w88 casino foreign policy show a strong stability. The foreign policy will not undergo fundamental changes due to changes in leadership or personal preferences, or major events will occur in micro-diplomatic affairs that clearly deviate from the macro-foreign policy. At the same time, during the reform process of more than 30 years, the stability mechanism of w88 casino systems and policies has been established and very complete. It is difficult or almost impossible for the new leadership group to change the major decisions and fundamental policies of their predecessors. For example, at the upcoming 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, we can see that a new leadership group has been elected, but the report to the 18th National Congress, which is equivalent to the "policy program" of the new leadership group, was actually made by their predecessors. Some similar institutional designs fundamentally ensure the continuity and stability of w88 casino policies, and its foreign policy is no different.
Of course, it is not feasible for China’s diplomacy to “remain unchanged in response to all changes”. Currently, w88 casino diplomacy is not only facing a very severe international environment, but also a very complex domestic environment, which has significantly increased the variables to be considered in w88 casino diplomatic decision-making. Of course, on the other hand, w88 casino growing national strength has also increased the means China can use in diplomacy and increased its room for maneuver on the international stage. We can see that in the dispute over the Scarborough Shoal, China effectively safeguarded its rights through its fishery administration ships and maritime surveillance ships. In the dispute over the Diaoyu Islands, China followed the same example and put on a good show through its fishery administration ships and maritime surveillance ships. Of course, it also adopted some new methods. China has made great progress in safeguarding national sovereignty without using force or economic sanctions. This is many times more sophisticated than the "fight" and "economic sanctions" that many people simply shout for! When Japan first proposed the policy of "nationalizing" the Diaoyu Islands, many people said that the Japanese did not give the Chinese any face, just like slapping the Chinese in the face. What now? The Japanese slapped him in the face. It can be said that in recent diplomatic activities, the Chinese have demonstrated very high political wisdom and perseverance. For some small countries, if they are anxious, you just go with them; if they want to get results quickly, you just fight with them; if they want you to take action, you are determined not to take action. After a long time, it will be finished! At present, whether it can handle diplomatic issues more skillfully and wisely is an important test for the Chinese government.
However, it is impossible for w88 casino diplomacy to go smoothly in the near future. The problems it faces are still very numerous and complex. These problems will appear from time to time, and due to its limited strength, some are difficult to solve at once. In this case, big-picture concepts and strategic awareness are crucial. At present, China should focus on considering and handling the following pairs of relationships in its foreign policy to demonstrate its overall concept and strategic awareness.
First, we must balance the relationship between diplomatic capabilities and public expectations. There is a popular limerick in China: "The United States will attack whoever it wants to attack. I will attack whoever Russia attacks me. I will scold whoever China attacks me!" As China's economic strength increases, the Chinese people hope that the government will be tougher in diplomacy instead of blindly compromising. However, as Professor Wang Jisi from the w88 casino of International Relations at Peking University said, in the near future, it will be difficult to get rid of the "security dilemma" China faces. The real strength, policy means and strategic planning that can be used in foreign relations will continue to lag behind the expectations of the domestic people. Under this situation, it is very important to balance the relationship between China's diplomatic capabilities and people's expectations so that ordinary people can truly understand the domestic and international environment, China's national strength and international status, and be able to focus on the overall situation and understand and support the government's foreign policy.
Second, we must balance the relationship between the country's long-term strategy and nationalist sentiments. Currently, there is a market for radical nationalism in Chinese society. There is relatively strong anti-foreign and xenophobic sentiment, which sometimes leads to extreme and irrational behavior. What is particularly important is that it can even "hijack" w88 casino diplomacy and have a great impact on foreign policy. In the recent Diaoyu Islands incident, this radical nationalist sentiment has actually become an important factor in pushing the Chinese government to adopt a tough policy against Japan. However, it must be noted that nationalism has always been a double-edged sword. Once this kind of radical nationalism is combined with the widespread resentment in Chinese society, it may have strong destructive power. Professor Zheng Yongnian from the Institute of East Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore believes that ChinaGreat efforts must be made to bring nationalism into the orbit of the legal system and the rule of law, otherwise nationalism will release huge energy that undermines social order. At the same time, the Chinese government should also enhance the people's international vision and globalization concepts, resolve radical nationalist sentiments, and properly deal with themThe relationship between national long-term strategy and nationalist sentiment.
Third, we must balance the relationship between our policy toward the United States and our policies toward East Asian countries. The conflicts between China and the United States are more at the strategic level, indirect and non-urgent; while the conflicts with East Asian countries (including some Southeast Asian countries) are at the specific level, and many are direct and urgent. However, due to the alliance between the United States and some East Asian countries, the relationship between China and the United States or the relationship between China and these East Asian countries is no longer a simple bilateral relationship, but intertwined with each other, appearing chaotic and complicated. In this way, intricate relationships among China, the United States, and East Asian countries have been formed. In this context, how China handles the relationship between its policies toward the United States and its policies toward East Asian countries from a strategic level, or how to consider the factors of East Asian countries in its relations with the United States, or how to consider the factors of the United States in its relations with East Asian countries, all require a high degree of political wisdom.
(The author is deputy dean and associate professor of the w88 casino of International Relations, w88 casino)
