w88 login’s opening up is facing six major challenges
("w88 login Economic News Network"2011Year6month16日）
While w88 login has made brilliant achievements after joining the WTO, w88 login is facing six major challenges: the conditions for opening up to the outside world have changed significantly; the regional focus of opening up to the outside world has shifted; the focus of opening up industries is facing adjustments; it has entered a high-cost era; multiple economic paradoxes coexist; and external shocks have increased.
■General Trend Observation■Sang Baichuan
In the past ten years since China joined the World w88 Organization, it has strictly fulfilled its WTO commitments and fully integrated into the mainstream of the world economy. It has transformed from a recipient and learner of the multilateral trading system to a participant and maker, and has become a staunch defender and promoter of economic globalization. Import and export volume2010Earlier than joining the WTO2001Annual growth5times, becoming the world’s largest trading country, with actual use of foreign direct investment exceeding1000billion US dollars, it has grown into a veritable global manufacturing center, and formed w88 login's unique economic model of promoting reform and development through opening up. However, while w88 login has made brilliant achievements in joining the WTO, it is also facing six major challenges.
1. Significant changes in opening conditions
First of all, at the beginning of w88 login’s accession to the WTO, w88 login was in a period of accelerated industrialization. Now it is entering the era of heavy chemical industry, with per capita GDP reaching4000USD, labor costs are rising, demographic dividend is declining, and the open road that relies on absorbing foreign direct investment and expanding export scale in the expansion of labor-intensive industries has encountered unprecedented challenges.
Secondly, compared with the beginning of China’s accession to the WTO, w88 frictions have increased significantly, not only with developed economies such as the United States and the European Union, but also with emerging markets and developing countries. The appreciation pressure of the RMB against major currencies such as the US dollar and the euro has increased, and export yields have narrowed.
Once again, at the beginning of w88 login’s entry into the WTO, w88 login’s savings and foreign exchange were“Double notch”It just disappeared, but now its savings deposit balance has grown steadily and remains high, and its foreign exchange reserves rank first in the world“Double excess”, the basic conditions for utilizing foreign capital have changed. in“Double excess”The choice of foreign investment under the conditions means that we must focus on encouraging the investment of multinational companies rich in multiple competitiveness carriers. This will make domestic enterprises face more intense competition from multinational companies with advanced technology, standardized management, complete governance systems, and rich experience in participating in globalization.
2. Shift of focus in opening-up areas
20century80The regional center of w88 login’s opening up to the outside world is the Pearl River Delta,90The era moved to the Yangtze River Delta. Since joining the WTO, the regional focus of w88 login’s opening-up has shifted to the Bohai Rim region. Today, the focus of regional opening-up is rapidly shifting from south to north, and from the coast to the inland. This forces w88 login to face three major issues in its future opening-up:
First, how to avoid being the most active economy in w88 login and accounting for GDP12About 1% of the Pearl River Delta region has experienced investment withdrawal, slowdown in growth, industrial hollowing out and economic decline due to the shift in regional opening up focus.
Second, the Bohai Rim region, as a new regional focus for opening up, is also the cradle of w88 login’s heavy chemical industry. This region is densely populated with equipment manufacturing, military and defense industries, steel, energy and other major industries involving national security and the lifeline of the national economy. How to maintain industrial security and national security during opening up has become a topic that must be considered.
Third, the central and western regions of w88 login, especially the western and border areas, are also the main living areas of ethnic minorities. How to maintain ethnic unity and regional stability as the focus of opening up moves inward has become an important issue.
3. The focus of opening-up industries faces adjustment
At the beginning of China's accession to the WTO, on the one hand, China followed the experience of the 1980s and 1990s. In expanding and deepening industrial opening, it focused on absorbing foreign direct investment in the manufacturing industry. It seized the opportunity of the major adjustment of the global industrial structure and the large-scale transfer of manufacturing, and boldly undertook the transfer of overseas manufacturing. By developing processing w88 and attracting investment from multinational companies, we can improve the technical level and management level of domestic manufacturing and promote the development of manufacturing and the expansion of foreign w88. On the other hand, with the expansion of market access to the service industry after China's accession to the WTO, the service industry has gradually become a new industrial focus for China's opening up to the outside world.
Today, the global division of labor system in the manufacturing industry has been established. East Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea serve as the main suppliers of parts and components, w88 login serves as the processing and assembly base, and Europe and the United States serve as technology research and development, design and final product demand markets, which have become an important part of the global production network system. In the short term, the craze for large-scale relocation of global manufacturing industries has cooled down. Instead, the global division of labor system in the service industry is in the process of being formed, and the global transfer and global allocation of the service industry are in the ascendant. The opening up of the service industry and undertaking the transfer of global service businesses will become the new industrial focus of w88 login's opening up to the outside world. w88 login's relatively fragile service industry and relatively backward management system are testing a new round of opening up.
IV. my country is entering a high-cost era
This is the special opening environment w88 login faces ten years after joining the WTO.
Since w88 login launched a new round of exchange rate system reform, the pressure for the RMB to appreciate against the US dollar and the euro has increased. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will inevitably lead to a revaluation of asset prices and an increase in asset prices. The appreciation of the RMB also increases export costs and reduces corporate profit margins.
Although the appreciation of the RMB reduces the cost of imports, the price of imported products can theoretically fall. However, due to the expansion of w88 login's import demand and high import dependence, w88 login has become the largest importer of many bulk products (such as mineral products). Exporters will take advantage of w88 login's import expansion and its oligopoly status to raise prices. As a result, the price of imported products does not fall but rises under the appreciation of the RMB. The rise in the price of imported investment products will increase the production costs of industrial and agricultural products.
As the world's manufacturing center, w88 login's economic growth rate continues to rise and its production and processing capacity continues to expand. The demand for energy, raw materials, mineral products, water resources, etc. is increasing, and resource pressure has become increasingly prominent. This has led to an overall increase in the price of resource products, and has been transmitted to the downstream processing and manufacturing fields. The cost of manufacturing products has also shown an upward trend.
China has entered an era of accelerated development of the heavy and chemical industry. Not only is the expanding demand for resource products driving up their prices, but environmental pressure is increasing day by day. Some developed countries are seeking to impose carbon emission taxes and launch new w88 protection banners. Improving the ecological environment has become a realistic policy choice. Enterprises’ investment in environmental protection increases and costs rise.
In addition, in order to narrow the personal income gap, wage standards must be raised and the social security system must be improved, which will also increase the labor costs of enterprises.
In short, with the overall upward trend in asset prices, export costs, bulk imported products, resource products, environmental costs, and labor costs, the cost-push inflationary pressure in the long term cannot be underestimated.
5. Multiple economic paradoxes coexist
The macroeconomic environment profoundly affects w88 login’s opening to the outside world. Today, in macroeconomic operations, the situation is much more complicated than when we joined the WTO, with multiple economic contradictions and paradoxes plaguing us.
The contradiction between adjusting structure and maintaining growth. In the process of compressing excess production capacity and phasing out backward production capacity, economic growth will inevitably slow down. Cultivating emerging production capacity will not be able to immediately stimulate economic growth in the short term, and maintaining growth will restrict the process of economic structural adjustment.
The contradiction between adjusting structure and reducing unemployment. In the process of structural adjustment, reduction of excess production capacity, and elimination of backward production capacity, original employment may become unemployment. However, maintaining employment may be hindered by reduction of excess production capacity and elimination of backward production capacity.
The contradiction between expanding domestic demand and low wages. Income levels and future expectations determine the scale of final consumption demand. To expand residents' final consumption demand, they are also constrained by low residents' income levels, imperfect social security systems, and people's unoptimistic expectations for the future. To increase wages, it will increase business costs and reduce investment desire and demand.
The contradiction between expanding domestic demand and unreasonable distribution. Due to the law of diminishing marginal propensity to consume, in order to expand domestic demand, it is necessary to increase the income level of the low-income class. Changing the existing distribution structure and raising the income level of the low-income class is not easy, and it also affects the interests of the finance, business and high-income classes.
The contradiction between raising wages and stabilizing external demand. Increasing labor income levels and workers' wages will increase corporate costs and reduce the competitiveness of export products. In the context of high dependence on exports, only by stabilizing external demand can the economy maintain stable operation. To stabilize external demand, it is relatively difficult to increase wages.
The contradiction between controlling inflation and maintaining growth. In controlling inflation, investment demand and consumer demand must be compressed, which will affect the economic growth rate. To maintain growth, expansion of investment and consumer demand will fuel inflation.
The contradiction between controlling housing prices and financial security. High housing prices have become an important factor in deteriorating the investment and entrepreneurship environment, affecting social stability, and restricting consumer demand other than real estate. In suppressing high housing prices, because banks' high-quality loans are concentrated in the real estate sector, a significant decline in housing prices will affect the profits of the banking industry, high-quality loans will be converted into inferior loans, and the proportion of non-performing assets of banks will increase, affecting financial security.
The contradiction between controlling housing prices and rising debt. Local finance increasingly relies on income from land transfer fees, which can even be called“Land Sales Finance”. If a downward trend in house prices forms, it has reached12．5Trillions of local debt will face great risks.
6. Increased external shocks
The unemployment rate in the world's major economies such as the United States, the European Union, and Japan is still at a high level, and the fiscal deficits of some countries have risen sharply. Commodity prices have risen, which has restricted the expansion of consumer demand and investment demand. The debt crisis in some countries such as Greece in southern Europe is still developing, which is a drag on the European and even world economies. The economic recovery processes of various countries are different, and economic stimulus policies have become divergent, affecting the recovery of the world economy and w88. 2010Year, US GDP approx.14．6Trillion dollars; fiscal deficit for current fiscal year exceeds1．3Trillions of dollars, debt balance14．3Trillions of dollars, per capita4．510,000 US dollars; deficit rate9%, debt ratio100%; unemployment rate9About %. Neither the U.S. export revitalization plan nor the re-industrialization strategy can fundamentally change the U.S. economic predicament.
Moreover, the strengthening of financial supervision by the United States will increase the risk of hot money flowing into w88 login and increase the difficulty of w88 login's liquidity management; the strengthening of financial supervision by the United States will make it difficult to repatriate overseas dollars, prolong the huge balance of payments deficit, and increase the probability of the dollar depreciating against the renminbi; when the United States implements its export stimulus plan, it will continue to pressure the appreciation of the renminbi. The appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar will reduce the price competitiveness of w88 login's exports to the United States and restrict the growth momentum of exports to the United States. The slow recovery of the Eurozone economy restricts w88 login's continued expansion of its exports; the depreciation of the euro and the difficulty in changing the appreciation trend of the RMB against the euro will further reduce the price competitiveness of w88 login's exports to the Eurozone and restrict the rapid growth momentum of exports to the Eurozone. Even if the economic risks in the Eurozone affect the pace of world economic recovery, they will also affect the growth of w88 login's exports in all aspects.
In the past ten years, w88 login's opening up has withstood many difficulties and challenges, and its steps have been steady and powerful. Today, in the face of multiple challenges, we are also facing new opportunities: the world economic structure is in a period of transformation, the global governance mechanism has entered a period of change, industrial and technological innovation is in a brewing period, and the power of emerging market countries has entered a period of rise. Only by seizing opportunities and bravely accepting challenges can we create new glory for w88 login's economy.
(Author’s affiliation: Institute of International Economics, w88 casino)
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