Zhao Zhongxiu: China’s foreign w88 policy must be adjusted from the source
Our reporter Shang HaoBeijing report
for4The w88 surplus in January exceeded expectations. Some official analysts believe it is a temporary phenomenon. They believe that as imports increase in May and June, and the EU market will gradually reduce imports from China, China's w88 surplus will become smaller and smaller this year, while the number of deficits will be greater than last year and the year before. So, leading to4What is the important reason why the monthly w88 surplus exceeded expectations? How do you view the connection between China's w88 policy changes, the improvement of China's import and export w88 balance, and China's economic transformation? What are the relevant risk prevention measures?
Related questions, "China Times" reporter5month19日Exclusive interview with a well-known scholar in the field of international w88 theory and policy research and the dean of the w88 casino of International Economics and w88 at the w88 casinoZhao ZhongxiuProfessor, please give his opinion.
The surplus will not fluctuate greatly
"China Times":5month11日The National Bureau of Statistics released macro data saying that import and export turned from deficit to surplus in the first quarter102.8billion dollars. Some analysts believe that this surplus is only a temporary phenomenon. Do you agree with this view?
Zhao Zhongxiu:I don’t agree with what you say“Temporary phenomenon”'s statement. I think that from the perspective of China’s w88 structure, maintaining a certain surplus should be the norm. This is actually the case this year3The month has already appeared, and it is here4The month is even more obvious.
The adjustment of China’s w88 structure cannot be immediate. Otherwise, it just shows that there was strong manipulation or control over w88 in the past. The formation of China's w88 surplus pattern is an inevitable reflection of the division of labor in today's international w88. Now, China is trying to promote the improvement of the w88 structure by increasing policy adjustments. Since the emergence of China's w88 surplus has a certain degree of endogeneity, so,4Month appears102.8A w88 surplus of 100 million US dollars is a very natural and normal phenomenon. Although the w88 surplus may decrease somewhat by May and June, it is unlikely to experience major ups and downs.
"China Times":In your opinion, causes4What is the important reason why the monthly w88 surplus exceeded expectations? Will the surplus this year decrease and the number of deficits increase much more than last year and the year before that?
Zhao Zhongxiu:Judging from the trend of China’s import and export w88 in the past ten years, every year4month is a seasonal peak for foreign w88 business, which is normal for import and export business. But4The month’s w88 surplus exceeded expectations, and there were factors that led to the price of imported commodities consolidating at a high level and falling slightly. In this sense,4Monthly imports increased year-on-year, while month-on-month imports decreased5.2%, this is actually a short-term phenomenon, but it supports the surplus. And2The larger deficit in the month is due to the increase in import payments. So, that's not normal.
The exchange rate should fluctuate widely
"China Times":What is your assessment of the expected appreciation of the RMB and its impact on the further improvement of China's w88 balance?
Zhao Zhongxiu:The appreciation of the RMB is not simply related to w88, but is closely related to the overall macroeconomic conditions and the current foreign exchange reserve situation. If we look purely from the perspective of how the RMB exchange rate adjustment can reduce the w88 surplus, there is not much correlation between the two. It does not mean that RMB appreciation can reduce the w88 surplus and achieve w88 balance.
I have always insisted on the view that the so-called concept of w88 balance is actually a layman's view, or just some rhetoric from politicians. The imbalance in the world is absolute, but balance is relative. We cannot pursue true balance unless there is no w88, then there is balance. The so-called pursuit of w88 balance still made sense before World War II, but the imbalance caused by today's international division of labor is a natural phenomenon unless the structure is forced to adjust. The United States is also trying to adjust its structure. For example, the United States hopes to no longer import some goods but to produce them itself and increase exports. President Obama is doing this work, emphasizing exports and the benefits and job opportunities that w88 brings to the United States. But in the long run, the United States is going back. However, Obama is forced to make certain revisions to US w88 policy due to the domestic political and economic situation in the United States.
So, I am opposed to linking the appreciation of the RMB to the issue of w88 balance, but should decouple it. Some people believe that my country's w88 deficit in the first quarter can slow down the pressure for RMB appreciation, and they are happy about it. This is exactly the same as admitting that the undervaluation of the RMB leads to a w88 surplus. This is neither true nor current economic logic.
The RMB exchange rate issue is a more complex and macro issue. However, the appreciation of the RMB has actually had an impact on China's import and export w88, and the causal relationship between the two is exactly the opposite. The impact is that for general w88, exporting has become difficult. This is because the cost of exporting has increased, but the rising cost factors cannot be transferred to downstream or abroad.
Observing China's ongoing w88 structure adjustment process, we have seen that small and medium-sized foreign w88 companies in Zhejiang and other places in China are currently in a very difficult situation to survive. Although these companies are facing constant losses, they cannot stop work immediately, otherwise the losses will be even greater. This is what is called in microeconomics“Closing point”Question. These companies have not yet reached the“Closing point',So we can only endure the loss. In this process, these companies need to be able to increase the selling prices of their products abroad, including through product upgrades and product quality improvements to achieve their goals. This is actually the policy intention to promote the optimization of export structure.
Therefore, allowing the RMB to appreciate to a certain extent is beneficial to adjusting the w88 structure, but this requires paying a short-term price. In other words, on the one hand, the RMB exchange rate has appreciated, and on the other hand, the production efficiency of foreign w88 enterprises has increased under pressure, and their productivity growth rate is greater than the appreciation rate of the RMB. Of course, the enterprises can still benefit from this, which also means that their competitiveness has increased.
At the same time, we must also see that due to the linkage effect of the international and domestic markets, domestic monetary policy is currently tightening, corporate loans are difficult, and the unfavorable factors they face are increasing. Therefore, we should still pay close attention to the domestic macroeconomic trend. If there is a significant decline in economic growth, I believe that policies will inevitably be adjusted. Because the annualized interest rate in the domestic capital market is now very high, the business operating environment is already very bad.
"China Times":As we all know, the pressure for RMB appreciation may come more from abroad. How much do you estimate the government will allow the RMB to appreciate faster?
Zhao Zhongxiu: I think there should be no accelerated appreciation of the RMB because it is not in the interest of China as an economic power. If there is an expectation that the RMB will appreciate at an accelerated pace, it will further lead to the inflow of hot money and further exacerbate the w88 imbalance. In fact, in the current environment, two-way changes in the RMB exchange rate should be promoted and the range of RMB exchange rate fluctuations should be expanded. If the business operation can be adapted to this frequently fluctuating exchange rate environment, it can play a role in practicing the internal strength of the enterprise.
In order to achieve this goal, it is necessary to promote domestic financial innovation and promote the emergence of more financial products or means that can effectively avoid the risk of currency appreciation or depreciation. There are currently very few such products or methods in China, which leaves export companies facing a situation of dead losses. For import companies, they hope that the RMB exchange rate will appreciate as much as possible. For example, Sinopec will hope that the exchange rate will rise as much as possible, so that imported crude oil will be relatively cheaper, while PetroChina(11.08,0.04,0.36%)But he won't be happy about it.
Import expects w88 convenience
"China Times":How do you view the impact of changes in China's foreign w88 policy on China's annual w88 balance?
Zhao Zhongxiu:China from2007The adjustment of foreign w88 policy that began in 20620_20663|After experiencing the global financial crisis and economic recession, one thing is relatively clear, that is“Stabilize exports”, instead of suppressing exports, we should do everything possible to enhance export competitiveness. Judging from China's current export structure, the top five are computer and automatic data processing equipment and components, followed by clothing, textiles, and handheld wireless phones and components.ITproducts. Obviously, on the one hand, there are traditional Chinese labor-intensive products, and on the other hand, there are electronic products based on processing w88. This actually reflects the domestic production structure. I think it is very necessary to maintain the stability of export policies so that China's traditional labor-intensive export products can still maintain a competitive advantage. It is also a positive w88 balance stance.
In terms of expanding imports, we may need to pay attention to two directions. One is to passively expand imports. Looking at the import volume alone, the top ones are mainly resource-based products, including crude oil, iron ore, primary forms of plastics, copper, etc., which are all imported for production purposes, but we do not have the right to say the price. The other is the import of final consumer products. This can promote the development of domestic business formats, such as luxury goods, which are currently attracting much attention. There is no competitive conflict with the products of domestic companies, so imports can be expanded and the welfare level of domestic consumers can be expanded. This is a focus of future adjustments to foreign w88 policies and is also an ongoing work. It will promote the facilitation of import w88 and promote policy coordination among relevant departments such as customs and commodity inspection. This will also promote the decline of w88 surplus.
But currently, the w88 surplus will not decline too much, nor will there be a long-term deficit. China's w88 structure will not quickly shift to such a situation. After all, China has formed an export-oriented economy. It is currently impossible for China to support domestic consumption by issuing banknotes or borrowing like the United States, and it can tolerate long-term current account deficits. China's monetary system cannot support this either.
"China Times":Main work goals established by the Ministry of Commerce“Stabilize exports, expand imports, and reduce surplus”Looking at it, what are the necessary conditions to achieve the goal of expanding imports and reducing the surplus this year?
Zhao Zhongxiu:In addition to maintaining the stability of exports, imports must be more independent. Expanding from the import of productive resource-based products to the import of final consumer products, a further relaxed environment is needed to reduce import costs. For example, in terms of tariffs, there should actually be room for structural reductions, and in terms of promoting w88 facilitation, etc.
On the other hand, it should also be noted that the current domestic market or business model is still very inefficient and not very smooth. Why do domestic supermarkets have high so-called entry fees and high logistics costs, but consumers fail to benefit from them? Therefore, competition in the domestic market should be further promoted to truly allow the people to benefit from the expansion of imports, rather than allowing the expansion of imports to turn into a profit for businesses. This actually involves further reform and improvement of the domestic circulation system.
In terms of bulk commodity imports, China currently lacks the right to speak on prices. How can we use the huge market scale of the entire country to improve our bargaining power? We should also be able to adjust international market prices and w88 volume by adjusting inventories, thereby promoting the balance of import and export w88.
At present, bulk commodity transactions are mostly spot transactions, which reflect direct demand. Our strategic inventory is not enough. We should convert part of the trillions of foreign exchange reserves from financial asset reserves into physical reserves. This should become our important strategic thinking.
Therefore, adjusting the foreign w88 structure is not a micro-level matter, nor is it a matter for one department of the Ministry of Commerce. It requires a more macro-level grasp by the central government and better coordination among various departments of the central government. However, we have seen that the current domestic coordination mechanism in this regard is not very smooth.
Policies must be adjusted from the source
"China Times": How do you view the relationship between China's w88 policy changes, the improvement of China's import and export w88 balance, and China's economic transformation? What are the relevant risk prevention measures?
Zhao Zhongxiu: Since the outbreak of this financial crisis, China’s foreign w88 policy adjustments should be said to be in place. What we have to do now is to maintain the stability of the policy and not to make adjustments or tighten it easily, including export tax rebates, export financing guarantees, etc. How small and medium-sized enterprises can adapt to the current tightening monetary environment and survive are facing real pressures. For example, how to improve product quality and selling price, etc., this pressure starts from2007In fact, it has always existed. Some companies died as a result, which is a natural survival of the fittest. It is a disaster for a single enterprise, but it may not be a good thing for the national economic system. But if a large-scale loss of small and medium-sized enterprises occurs, and one-third of the enterprises cannot start operations, the problem will be serious. At that time, I believe macroeconomic policies will be adjusted.
"China Times":If China’s future import policy formulation changes from a production-oriented one to a more neutral free w88 model, until it is oriented towards promoting national welfare, what are the necessary conditions? What impact will it have on the domestic and international economies?
Zhao Zhongxiu:Although this is a trend, it is obviously difficult for us to achieve the goal in the short term. Although China is already the world's second largest economy, it still needs to rely on its export-oriented economy and relies on production and exports to accumulate wealth. It cannot rely on having the right to issue currency to acquire wealth innately. But this does not rule out improving national welfare through sustained economic improvement, expansion of imports, and expansion of consumption. Under the past control system, we did not enjoy benefits commensurate with our citizens' contributions. For example, we paid high prices for many high-end products such as imported cars, which actually reduced the benefits that our citizens should enjoy.
"China Times": In your research field, such as the field of international w88 theory and policy research, what are the latest research results or policy suggestions regarding China's current foreign w88 policy and the current status of import and export w88?
Zhao Zhongxiu: I think that when analyzing China’s current w88 structure and formulating or adjusting China’s foreign w88 policies, we should not just look at China, but at least look at the entire Asia and the supply chain formed by the entire Asia. China is actually a core of Asian economies, not just China to the world. Policymakers should take into account the characteristics of this region and have this broad vision. In this way, many problems can be easily solved.
Because we have formed an economic division of labor system in Asia. From a supply perspective, China can actually allocate resources within Asia. Moreover, China's strong government advantage can provide late-mover and institutional advantages in terms of intellectual property rights and promoting technological progress. This is actually equivalent to the ability to allocate technical resources on a wider scale. This is a very key factor for China to gain competitive advantages in the future. Instead of passively accepting the division of labor, we will be able to proactively adjust the division of labor structure. Therefore, this requires various government departments to be able to form synergy, and at the same time, they must be as compliant as possible without conflicting with it. This includes independent intellectual property rights, industrial support and guidance policies, etc., which can be done more skillfully.
"China Times":Should this become a very important strategic thinking in foreign w88 policy?
Zhao Zhongxiu:Yes. Because w88 ultimately reflects a result, but sometimes just adjusting the result is useless, and adjustments must be made from the source.
("China Times"2011year5month20日）
Link:
http://www.chinatimes.cc/pinglun/zhuanlan/2011-05-20/23768.shtml
[Media] "First Financial Daily" interviews Zhao Zhongxiu on the "import" issue
