Our reporter Tian Junrong

"People's Daily" (2011Year05month03日10 version)

　　Further improving the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and enhancing exchange rate flexibility can change the domestic sales price of imported goods and help slow down imported inflationary pressure

The increased flexibility of the exchange rate will put certain pressure on the coastal export industry, prompting w88 online sports betting to improve technology, innovate products, and transfer to the central and western regions. At the same time, w88 online sports betting will guide the allocation of resources from the export sector to domestic demand sectors such as the service industry, reduce the economy's over-reliance on exports, and help industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and transformation of economic development methods

　　4month29日, the central parity rate of the RMB to US dollar exchange rate6.499, breakthrough in one fell swoop6.5This important integer pass.

Such a sharp trend is no longer a day. this year4Since the past month, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar has passed through all levels, which is unstoppable and has been conquered one after another6.55、6.54、6.53、6.52、6.51、6.5Six major passes, last year6month19This is rare since the Bank of Japan announced to further promote the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism.

Three major factors: market, fundamentals, and regulation lead to the strengthening of the RMB

"The RMB exchange rate strengthens until w88 online sports betting rises above6.5mark, there are market factors, fundamental factors and regulatory factors”,Ding Zhijie, Dean of the w88 casino of Finance, w88 casinoIn summary.

From the perspective of market factors, the continued depreciation of the US dollar is the main reason for the recent accelerated appreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar. "In fact,4The RMB depreciated against currencies such as the euro and the pound in March,” Ding Zhijie said.

Since the Federal Reserve recently announced that w88 online sports betting will maintain the "zero interest rate" policy and shows no signs of tightening policy, people judge that its pace of raising interest rates will be significantly slower than that of other economies. In addition, in the first quarter of the United StatesGDPThe data was lower than market expectations, and Standard & Poor's lowered the outlook for the U.S. sovereign rating from "stable" to "negative." These have put pressure on the U.S. dollar from a fundamental perspective, causing w88 online sports betting to "continuously fall."

From the perspective of fundamental factors, China’s economy has maintained stable and rapid growth. The main driving force for economic growth has gradually shifted from policy stimulus to independent growth in an orderly manner, attracting a steady inflow of foreign exchange funds. The balance of national foreign exchange reserves has reached as high as 16037_16111|3More than one trillion U.S. dollars, which has played an important supporting role in the rise of the RMB exchange rate.

From the perspective of regulatory factors, my country’s imports are currently growing rapidly, and many of the imported commodities are bulk commodities such as iron ore and crude oil, such as2010my country imported crude oil2.4billion tons, year-on-year increase17.5%. Further improving the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and enhancing exchange rate flexibility can change the domestic sales price of imported goods and help slow down imported inflation pressure.

"Maintaining the basic stability of the overall price level is the primary and most urgent task of macroeconomic control this year. w88 online sports betting should be said that the exchange rate is not the main policy tool to curb inflation, but increasing the flexibility of the exchange rate is conducive to curbing inflation. This has basically become a consensus," said Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications.

For the Chinese economy, a stronger exchange rate is conducive to controlling inflation in the short term and conducive to economic transformation in the medium and long term

"The impact of a stronger RMB exchange rate on China's economy is generally positive. w88 online sports betting is conducive to controlling inflation in the short term and conducive to economic transformation in the medium and long term." Lian Ping believes that the increased flexibility of the exchange rate will bring certain pressure to the coastal export industry, prompting w88 online sports betting to improve technology, innovate products, and transfer to the central and western regions; at the same time, w88 online sports betting will guide the allocation of resources from the export sector to domestic demand sectors such as the service industry, reducing the economy's over-reliance on exports. “These are all conducive to industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and transformation of economic development methods,” he said.

The strengthening of the RMB exchange rate will compress the profit margins of export enterprises, but w88 online sports betting should be noted that after200519577_19584201019612_19669

　　2010Year11Month, central bank’s national survey2181export-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises and203820207_202600.6%. A joint survey of the operations of foreign w88 companies by the Ministry of Commerce, the Central Bank and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange also showed that78.4%20348_203942010Year6Month Solstice12In September, my country's exports of labor-intensive products have fully exceeded the level before the international financial crisis.

"At the current Spring Canton Fair, the prices of export products have generally increased5%—10%, This is the flexible response of export enterprises to external changes such as RMB appreciation”,Ding ZhijieFor example.

The stronger RMB exchange rate means that the RMB in the hands of ordinary people is more valuable, and w88 online sports betting is more cost-effective when traveling, consuming, and studying abroad. Some investors are worried about the shrinkage of foreign exchange in their hands. In this regard, experts say that the RMB only appreciates relative to currencies such as the US dollar, but depreciates relative to currencies such as the Euro and the Australian dollar. Investors can also convert their US dollar assets into currencies such as the Euro and the Australian dollar to earn the exchange difference.

The RMB may rise or fall against the US dollar in the future, and overall w88 online sports betting will be relatively strong

RMB exchange rate rises above6.5mark, which has strengthened overseas markets’ expectations for RMB appreciation.4month29Sunday evening, the overseas non-deliverable market, which is used to measure overseas markets’ expectations for RMB appreciation, shows that the RMB appreciation rate will be close to that after one year3%. What will be the trend of the RMB exchange rate in the future?

　　Ding Zhijiestated that the recent unilateral rise in the RMB is mainly due to the continued weakening of the US dollar, and the trend of the US dollar may be reversed, so the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar may rise or fall in the future.

"The second round of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States will be this year6w88 online sports betting will end as scheduled before the end of the month, and w88 online sports betting is unlikely to launch a new round of quantitative easing policy thereafter, which will help the U.S. dollar strengthen." Ding Zhijie said, "After U.S. President Obama announced the news that bin Laden was killed, the U.S. dollar index rebounded rapidly, indicating that various contingency factors can also boost the U.S. dollar. ”

However,Ding Zhijiealso said that due to China's good economic fundamentals, the RMB exchange rate will generally remain relatively strong in the future.

"Recently, there are rumors in the market that the RMB exchange rate will appreciate one-time during the May Day holiday10%, resulting inBThe stock market plummeted," Lian Ping said. "The reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism will be promoted in accordance with the 'three natures' principle, one of which is called gradualism, that is, we will insist on using a gradual approach to promote exchange rate reform and enhance exchange rate flexibility. A one-time appreciation of the RMB is impossible.

According to Lian Ping’s prediction, the appreciation rate of the RMB against the US dollar this year will be5%—7%. "I suggest increasing the two-way floating of the RMB exchange rate to prevent speculators from expecting a stable appreciation and prevent a large inflow of arbitrage capital," Lian Ping said.