2011"Low w88 login Economy Report" released
(2011Year 03Month 23日14:55)
China Economic Net Beijing3month23日News (Reporter Chen Yu) According to the reporter from China Economic Network, the International Low Carbon Economic Research Institute of the w88 casino, the Social Science Literature Press, the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Asian Core Project of the w88 casino of Economics of Nagoya University, and the China Sustainable Development Project of the American Energy Foundation jointly released the "China Low Carbon Economic Development Report" in Beijing yesterday(2011)》. This is China’s first series of research reports on the theme of low-w88 login economy. It brings together core members of the Club of Rome,IPCCWorking group members, pioneers in w88 login emission theory, government consultants on climate change issues, Japanese low-w88 login society plan designers, and Chinese national conditions and environmental experts and other well-known scholars, government officials and people of insight discussed the current situation of the international economy after the world financial crisis, and compared the experiences and policies of various countries in developing low-w88 login economies, summaryCOP15New trends in countries' response to climate change since 9882_9928|), providing policy suggestions and reference materials for researchers, government decision-makers and general readers.
The green development of the 12th Five-Year Plan will greatly promote China’s energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental improvement
The "Low w88 login Economy Report" pointed out that China'sGDPThe total volume has surpassed Japan and become the second largest in the world. If China continues to maintain rapid growth, it may be much faster than the predictions of international organizations.2020Year ago, it surpassed the United States and became the world's largest economy. But at the same time, w88 login dioxide emissions also surpassed the United States to become the world's largest.
Report authorHu AngangThe professor pointed out that as the biggest beneficiary of globalization, China must shoulder global responsibilities and commit to emission reduction targets. Chinese“Twelfth Five-Year Plan”The plan will regard green development as the basic principle of economic and social development, which will greatly promote China's energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental improvement, and provide guarantee for the realization of China's external commitments.
The author of the report, Gao Ruosu, a former Australian ambassador to China, pointed out: The crisis China faces on the issue of climate change is far more serious than those faced by developed countries. China has made great efforts to deal with climate change, save energy and reduce emissions, but the international community is not aware of this. China should integrate domestic policies into international commitments. China's emission reduction efforts will completely change the outcome of the global response to climate change.
Xue Jinjun, a professor at Nagoya University and the editor-in-chief of the report, pointed out that China is a developing economy with rapid economic development. However, at the same time, China's per capita income is still at a lower-middle level. Therefore, rapid growth will continue, the urbanization rate will further increase, and the transformation of the economic structure will require at least10More than 12265_12489|years. This huge domestic demand is putting increasing pressure on energy and the environment, gradually forming a bottleneck that restricts sustainable economic development. Therefore, responding to global climate change, energy conservation and emission reduction are not only due to international pressure, but mainly due to the needs of China's future development. He suggested that while China is actively reducing emissions independently, it should also actively publicize and introduce China's achievements in dealing with climate change, provide some w88 login financial assistance and more practical energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies to developing countries, host some United Nations international climate change conferences, form international agreements with Chinese domain names, and hold world-wide energy-saving and emission-reduction expos to expand China's influence and increase the international community's recognition of China's emission reductions.
Li Ganjie, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, proposed in the preface of the report that we should explore low-w88 login development paths that suit the national conditions of each country. China has a positive attitude towards responding to climate change and developing a low-w88 login economy. In some aspects, it is already at the forefront of the world, but overall it is still in its infancy. Therefore, it needs to learn from the experience of other countries in developing low-w88 login economies, so as to find a low-w88 login development path with Chinese characteristics and create a Chinese model of low-w88 login development while creating the Chinese miracle.
China’s per capita income is still far from the turning point of w88 login emissions3times difference
The report points out that from the perspective of empirical statistical analysis, w88 login emissions and economic growth are inversely relatedUFormular relationship, that is, rapid growth will inevitably bring high w88 login emissions, and as economic growth slows down, w88 login emissions will gradually decrease. The turning point of w88 login emissions from increasing to decreasing is the turning point of w88 login emissions. In developing countries, the per capita income reaches24517USD, the turning point for developed countries is31235USD. China’s current per capita income in U.S. dollars is4000USD, PPP7000US dollar, still far away from the general international turning point3A gap of more than three times. Therefore, developing the economy, alleviating poverty, and increasing per capita income remain China's top priorities. At the same time, as China's economy has an increasing impact on the international economy, especially international w88, especially the occurrence of the global economic crisis, China's importance in the international community has become increasingly prominent. Maintaining moderate growth is not only important for China, but also China's important contribution to the development of the world economy.
The report states,20century60Japan has achieved rapid growth in the 1990s, but it has also caused serious environmental problems and public hazards,1970After the year, Japan formulated a series of laws and policies to strictly regulate the pollution emissions of enterprises,197314381_1444720century70The low-speed growth of Japan’s economy after the 1990s and90The hollowing out of industries and ultra-low or negative economic growth after the 1990s.
The report believes that China is currently facing Japan20In the situation of the 1960s and 1970s, if too much emphasis is placed on emission reduction and economic growth comes to a sudden halt, Japan may make the same mistake, or even be more serious than Japan, because Japan's environmental improvement occurred when the per capita income reached11000USD1970years later, and the deceleration of economic growth occurs when per capita income reaches16000USD1985years later. Therefore, China should keep a clear mind and adhere to the principle of energy conservation and emission reduction while developing its economy.
The report recommends setting emission reductions andGDPGrowth-linked indicators will implement total emission reduction control. The report points out that China has very binding economic growth indicators such asGDPThese rigid indicators such as growth rate, employment rate, industrialization rate and urbanization have strengthened the economic development awareness of various departments and local governments and promoted rapid economic development. However, they have also caused serious problems such as high energy consumption and w88 login emissions and sacrificing the environment to maintain growth in order to complete the indicators. Report recommends relaxation onGDPThe rigid requirements for indicators, strengthen the requirements for energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental protection indicators, and put forward a guidelineGDPIndicators, and set corresponding energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental protection indicators to be linked to them, as the main content of the comprehensive assessment of cadres' performance.
In terms of how to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction, the report believes that the most effective method is to implement total emission control. Therefore, the report recommends that China“Twelfth Five-Year Plan”In the planning and development plans of various departments and localities, the total amount of energy conservation and emission reduction indicators must be clearly formulated and the total amount control shall be implemented to ensure the moderate growth of energy conservation and emission reduction effects and a high-quality living environment. However, due to the different levels of economic development in various regions, the energy usage and emission reduction intensity of various industries and departments are very different. A one-size-fits-all approach cannot be adopted. Instead, different, graded and graded emission decomposition indicators should be adopted based on the economic development status of each region and the industrial emissions of the industry.
China’s four major energy-intensive export sectors have to pay the most each year76.75100 million US dollars
The report points out that China faces huge pressure to reduce emissions. Since the Copenhagen Conference, developed countries such as the United States, France, Britain, and Japan have proposed imposing levies on imported products“w88 login Tariff”. This will have a great impact on China, the world's largest exporter. If implemented, China will have to pay a huge cost for the w88 login dioxide it emits.
The report points out that one of the effective policy means currently advocated by developed countries to force emerging economies represented by China to voluntarily reduce w88 login emissions is“w88 login Tariff”, that is, a certain degree of tariff will be levied on exports from countries such as China that do not levy domestic w88 login taxes or energy taxes and have substantial energy subsidies based on their w88 login emission intensity, forcing China to pay the cost of treating the w88 login dioxide it emits.
The report points out that whether China's exports will be subject to w88 login tariffs depends on three prerequisites: whether China exports a large number of energy-intensive products to countries that impose w88 login taxes or energy consumption taxes; whether China provides government subsidies for these products so that they have an energy cost advantage over foreign products; whether China is likely to adopt but does not adopt corresponding restrictive policies to reduce w88 login dioxide emissions. Since the beginning of this century, China’s total export volume of energy-intensive products such as steel and cement has increased significantly.2008China’s steel exports accounted for 1% of the world’s total12.1%. An important reason for the substantial increase in China's exports of high-energy-consuming products is that international energy prices have risen significantly since this century. However, due to the existence of price controls and energy subsidies, domestic energy costs have maintained a clear advantage compared with foreign countries, thus boosting the large-scale export of high-energy-consuming products. International comparisons show that China's energy efficiency in these energy-intensive industries is significantly lower than the world average. This shows that if calculated based on the w88 login dioxide emissions produced by actual energy consumption, the w88 login tax levied on each unit of China's exported products will be higher than the world average. In terms of w88 login tax costs, China's products not only have no comparative advantage, but also have comparative disadvantages.
Therefore, if the US plan is followed, China’s four major energy-intensive export sectors will need to pay the most each year22.53USD; if the European plan is followed, the most that needs to be paid76.75$100 million. The proportion of w88 login tax amounts in total exports varies greatly among different sectors. The non-metallic mineral manufacturing industry and the non-ferrous metal industry will be greatly affected. In a high w88 login tax scenario, the w88 login tax can reach up to 1% of total exports32.8%(Non-metal products industry, such as cement, flat glass), the total w88 login tax cost of the industry can reach the total main business cost13.4%. This is indeed difficult for Chinese export companies to bear. Under the medium w88 login tax scenario, the total w88 login tax could be up to 1% of total exports10%, and in the low w88 login tax scenario, the total w88 login tax accounts for the total exports3%—7%. my country's nonferrous metals2007The gross profit margin in the year is12.1%, so even in the medium w88 login tax scenario, the proportion of profit margin compression is still very high, which is basically acceptable only in the low w88 login tax scenario. If it is the high w88 login tax scenario, then export companies will not be profitable at all.
China will experience a stage of rapid growth in energy demand and w88 login emissions in the next ten years
Reported with“Twelfth Five-Year Plan”—2020is the first stage of low-w88 login development. The report points out that this stage is a stage where China’s industrialization and urbanization are accelerating and the residents’ consumption structure is upgrading. The main feature is the rapid growth of total energy demand. UnitGDPEnergy consumption continues to decline, and renewable energy is developing rapidly but on a small scale. The development goals of this period are: to steadily promote urbanization and maintain a reasonable population size; to continuously optimize and adjust the economic structure, focusing on the adjustment of industry and industry structure in the near and medium term; to effectively follow the development path of new industrialization, and maintain steady growth in the output of high-energy-consuming products; to promote the construction of an energy-saving energy production system, and the energy efficiency levels of major high-energy-consuming industries and major energy equipment are generally in2020to reach the international advanced level; establish an energy-saving transportation service system, vigorously develop urban bus and rail transit systems, strengthen energy conservation and emission reduction in the building sector, and control excessive growth of building area; the energy supply structure has been optimized, the development of renewable energy and primary energy has begun to bear fruit, and the clean and efficient development and utilization of coal has become a research and development focus.
Reported with2020—2035is the second period of low-w88 login development. It is considered that this stage is when China begins to enter the late stage of industrialization, and the energy supply and demand pattern that is highly dependent on coal changes significantly. Ideally, China's fossil fuel demand can reach its peak at the end of this stage, ifCCSThe large-scale commercial application of technology can decouple w88 login emissions from economic development.
The report points out that the development goals during this period are: to achieve fundamental changes in the economic development model and industrial structure; in2030Strive to make the proportion of the tertiary industry exceed that of the secondary industry, and the proportion of high-processing and high-tech industries in industry will be significantly higher than the current level; build an efficient and energy-saving transportation network covering the entire country; conservation-oriented consumption concepts and models will be recognized by society; the energy reserve system will be basically formed; the energy market reform will be basically completed, and the role of the market in allocating resources will be greatly strengthened.
Reported with2036—2050pointed out that the long-term stage of China's low-w88 login development is that during this stage, the service industry has become the leading force in economic development, and its sustainable development capabilities are increasingly enhanced. Nuclear energy and renewable energy have more prominent substitution effects on traditional fossil energy,CCSTechnology is gradually becoming popular in the power generation industry and high-energy-consuming industries. In the best case, with the large-scale application of w88 login dioxide capture and storage technology, total w88 login dioxide emissions can be reduced to the current level by the middle of this century.
The report points out that to realize the expected development prospects, first, China’s low-w88 login energy development system must be established. The second is to focus on promoting the scale and commercialization of renewable energy technologies. Third, the installed capacity of hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power has reached the scale of 100 million kilowatts. Fourth, fiscal and taxation policies that are conducive to energy conservation, emission reduction, and sustainable development have been basically implemented. Fifth, a systematic international energy cooperation framework has been formed. Sixth, form a complete energy infrastructure system and a market system that promotes energy conservation and emission reduction.
China faces four pressures in developing a low-w88 login economy
Author of the reportZhao Zhongxiupointed out that the pressure China faces is first manifested in the prominent contradictions in its energy structure. In China’s primary energy consumption structure, coal accounts for more than70%, the total efficiency of coal collection and utilization is only about half of the world's advanced level, and the intensity of w88 login emissions is high. This not only shows that China has a lot of room for energy conservation and emission reduction, but also shows that the current application level of clean coal technology is lagging behind. It is necessary to accelerate technology research and development and increase international technical cooperation to achieve the cleanliness of fossil energy. If China's total coal utilization efficiency can reach the world's advanced level, half of the emission reduction target can be achieved by improving energy use efficiency, thus greatly reducing the w88 login emission rigidity of energy endowment.
The report points out that the second pressure China faces is low industrial concentration, a large proportion of small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises, low energy efficiency, and insufficient energy conservation and emission reduction capabilities. Most of China's manufacturing industries have low market access thresholds, low levels of enterprise technology and equipment, high w88 login emission intensity, and a large amount of backward production capacity.
The report also pointed out that the third pressure on China to develop a low-carbon economy comes from China’s foreign w88 structure. China is known as the world's factory, manufacturing a large number of industrial products for other countries in the world, and the carbon emissions embedded in them account for China's total carbon emissions1/4To1/3. Under the existing world value chain distribution and w88 pattern, China's carbon emissions generated in the manufacturing and w88 links are seriously inconsistent with the added value obtained. For example, for a Barbie doll, in the entire process from manufacturing to final purchase3/4About 10% of the w88 login emissions are generated in China, but only about 1% of the added value1/10Staying in China, the difference between w88 login emissions and benefits exceeds13Times as much. This w88 structure is relatively unfavorable to China. Under the conditions of economic globalization, China should strive to promote the upgrading of its w88 structure and participate more deeply in the international division of labor.
The report points out that the fourth pressure comes from the expansion of China’s population size and changes in its demographic structure. China’s population in the future15The year will be averaged annually80010,000—100010,000 scale growth, current per capitaGDPfor4000About US dollars, converted according to purchasing power parity7500Around US$25454_25572|, and the per capita income level continues to increase. China's per capita w88 login emissions level is at a very low level compared with developed countries, but Chinese society is at a stage of major changes in lifestyle, and there are similarities in life patterns with developed countries. Further improvement of living standards will inevitably increase per capita w88 login emissions levels. On the other hand, China currently has53%'s population lives in rural areas and relies on agriculture for their livelihood. in the future15In the years, there will be 10% of China’s total population30%About 25685_25731|about the rural population has left the countryside and been absorbed by cities and towns. Therefore, urbanization over a long period of time will also put great pressure on China's w88 login emissions.
Link:
http://www.ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/zg/201103/23/t20110323_22323027.shtml
China Climate Change Information Network:
http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp?NewsId=27594
NetEase:
http://news.163.com/11/0322/18/6VP6FIDF00014JB6.html
China.com:
http://news.china.com.cn/txt/2011-03/22/content_22198213.htm
China Daily:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hqpl/zggc/2011-03-28/content_2142651.html
