Seize the strategic opportunities for common development
Sang Baichuan
(2011Year01month07The headline of the theoretical page of "People's Daily")
The Central Economic Work Conference held not long ago emphasized that the international financial crisis has far-reaching impacts and the world economic landscape is undergoing profound and complex changes. We must accurately grasp the characteristics of the rising power of emerging market countries and strive to develop and strengthen ourselves. This is an accurate judgment on the medium- and long-term trends of world economic development. At present, more and more emerging market countries are complying with the trend of in-depth development of economic globalization and the transfer of international industrial division of labor. Their economies are developing rapidly and have gradually become an important engine of world economic growth. my country is facing strategic opportunities to strengthen cooperation and common development with other emerging market countries.
The rise of emerging market countries
20Century80—908710_875619948784_88842004年开始，国际货币基金组织将全世界国家分为两大类：一类是包括亚洲新兴工业经济体在内的先进经济体，另一类是其他新兴市场国家和发展中国家。
Emerging market countries are a group composed of dozens of countries and regions, widely distributed in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe. They are major countries in each region and core members of regional economic organizations. They are important inflows of global capital and important growth points of the world economy. Among them, China, Brazil, Russia, India, etc.“BRICS”The most eye-catching. Recently, South Africa officially joined“BRICS”Cooperation mechanism. Especially near10In recent years, the economic strength of emerging market countries has increased significantly, which is highlighted by: their status in global w88 has risen rapidly, and their proportion of global w88 volume has continued to increase; they have not only been favored by international indirect investment, but have also become a hot spot for international direct investment inflows. to the world500Transnational companies represented by powerful enterprises have significantly increased their investments in emerging market countries and outsourced their businesses to emerging market countries. near10In recent years, the average annual economic growth rate of emerging market countries has been approximately higher than the world average2percentage points, the industrialization process has accelerated significantly; R&D investment accounted forGDPThe proportion has increased significantly, technological progress has been rapid, and the gap between scientific and technological strength and developed countries has gradually narrowed. After experiencing the impact of the international financial crisis, emerging market countries took the lead in achieving economic recovery2010Contribution to world economic growth reached60%around, becoming the main force driving global economic growth. In global economic governance, emerging market countries are making increasingly powerful voices, their influence in international institutions such as the World w88 Organization, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank continues to increase, and they play an increasingly important role in international economic cooperation and other economic affairs.
Reasons for the rapid development of emerging market countries
Although there are differences in the development history, political and economic systems, culture and ideology of emerging market countries, and the stages of development are also different, there are commonalities in the conditions and experiences for achieving rapid development. First of all, these countries have experienced many years of development and accumulation before entering the track of rapid development, and have made great progress in industrial and agricultural production, infrastructure, science and technology, education and other aspects. Secondly, these countries have conducted arduous explorations in finding their own development paths and strategies. Many of them have experienced setbacks and accumulated rich experiences and lessons. They understand that they must seek changes based on their own national conditions and conform to the world economic trend, focus on developing social productivity, follow a development path with their own characteristics, and build an economic development model with their own characteristics. Once again, these countries have seized rare development opportunities.20Century80End of the decade90In the early 1990s, the Cold War ended, peace and development became the trend of the times, a unified global market was formed, economic globalization developed rapidly, and the flow of goods, capital, talents, services, and technology across the globe expanded dramatically. At the same time, multinational corporations have developed rapidly and become the engine of economic globalization, driving the adjustment of the world economic structure and the great transfer of global industries. Countries with considerable resource advantages, market potential, and a certain material foundation seize historical opportunities, boldly reform and open up, actively participate in economic globalization, continuously improve their international competitiveness, promote industrialization and economic structure upgrading, and become emerging market countries.
In short, the in-depth development of economic globalization is an important external condition for the rapid development of emerging market countries, while economic reform and continuous expansion of opening up are the internal driving forces for their rapid development. Resource advantages, market potential and their own economic conditions are the material basis for their rapid development.
Economic downturn in developed economies in the United States and Europe
After the international financial crisis, developed economies such as the United States and the European Union have recovered slowly, and the power of emerging market countries has entered a period of rising power.
After the large-scale transfer of manufacturing production capacity overseas, the United States is facing a long-term high w88 deficit, high fiscal deficit, high debt, high wages, high welfare, and high unemployment“五高”Troubled, domestic consumer demand is weak, seeking5It is difficult to achieve the desired results by doubling exports within the year, implementing the reindustrialization strategy, and attracting overseas investment companies to return. At present, it seems that the United States cannot get out of its economic predicament in the short term. Economic structural adjustment is progressing slowly and it will linger on the road to economic recovery for a longer period of time. At the same time, after the United States implemented the quantitative easing monetary policy, not only was it difficult for the increased capital supply to enter the real economy, but also after passing“Great Depression”In the context of the most stringent financial regulatory bill in history, large-scale outflows of downstream capital have resulted in the proliferation of US dollars and a greatly increased probability of depreciation, bringing huge risks and uncertainties to the future world economic development.
The euro zone economy faces more difficulties. Greece, Portugal, Italy, Spain, and Ireland in Southern Europe are all facing high fiscal deficits and high debts, which are directly related to their aging populations, burdens on their welfare systems, and immigration, which have aggravated fiscal pressures. In response to the impact of the international financial crisis, these countries increased fiscal expenditures, further amplifying these problems, and economic globalization has spread these problems. In order to resolve the sovereign debt crisis or avoid a sovereign debt crisis, some countries seek to cut benefits and reduce fiscal expenditures, which has led to an increasing number of strikes. After the EU had no choice but to lend a helping hand, it only established a unified central bank and did not form a unified finance. Therefore, it was unable to use fiscal means. It could only use financial means and rely on the European Central Bank to invest more currency to solve the problem, which led to the depreciation of the euro. As the sovereign debt crisis evolves, risks in the euro zone's financial sector have increased, casting a shadow over the euro zone's economic prospects.
Although emerging market countries have been dragged down by the economies of the United States and Europe, hot money inflows have increased, liquidity has expanded, and inflationary pressures have risen. However, these problems are related to rising economic power and are in sharp contrast to the sluggish economies of the United States and Europe. It can be said that the rising power of emerging market countries is irreversible.
Strengthen cooperation with emerging market countries
As a member of the emerging market countries, my country needs to accurately grasp the profound and complex changes that are taking place in the world economic landscape, carefully analyze the mid- to long-term trends in world economic development, accurately grasp the characteristics of the rising power of emerging market countries, and actively strengthen strategic and pragmatic cooperation with other emerging market countries to achieve common development.
Past10During the year, our country’s relationship with14The exports of major emerging market countries accounted for the proportion of my country’s total exports from1%Raise to13%, improve12percentage points; the proportion of imports increased from2%Raise to13%, improve11Percentage points. Emerging market countries are also important investment sources and destinations for my country, and my country's economic cooperation with emerging market countries is increasingly strengthening. However, at present, my country's foreign w88 is still relatively concentrated in the markets of developed countries. Among them, exports to the United States, Europe, and Japan account for a large proportion of the total exports45%Around the world, w88 frictions are rising and risks are greater. In order to disperse w88 risks and achieve sustainable development of foreign economic and w88,“Twelfth Five-Year Plan”In this period, it is necessary to expand the scale of w88 with emerging market countries, deepen economic and w88 relations with emerging market countries, and strengthen strategic and pragmatic cooperation. To do this, the following measures can be taken.
Establish a foreign w88 promotion system for emerging market countries. Establishing a foreign w88 promotion system is a systematic project. Its goal is not only to expand my country's exports, but also to promote my country's imports from emerging market countries to achieve mutual benefit, win-win results, and sustainable development. The means of promoting foreign w88 should remain indirect and pragmatic, and the targets should mainly be small and medium-sized enterprises, because small and medium-sized enterprises can play a very important role in increasing employment opportunities and expanding imports and exports. The foreign w88 promotion system should closely integrate various economic cooperation methods such as foreign aid, overseas resource development, import expansion, and debt relief to expand the comprehensive effect.
Implement projects to promote exports to emerging market countries. Increase financial support, encourage the private sector to set up national funds to develop emerging markets, and support enterprises to expand exports to emerging market countries; provide more preferential policies and adopt more convenient procedures for the export of mechanical and electrical products and complete sets of equipment to emerging market countries that need to be developed; increase insurance support to disperse and reduce the risks of enterprises expanding into emerging market countries; increase information technology assistance to help enterprises solve problems such as lack of understanding of emerging market countries and inability to effectively obtain market information of potential economic and w88 partners; vigorously promote financial cooperation plans, including“Currency swap plan”and“w88 Finance Program”etc.
Implement the project to promote imports from emerging market countries. In the process of developing economic and w88 relations with emerging market countries, we should pay more attention to the balance of imports and exports, and strive to increase imports from emerging market countries while expanding exports, taking“Grab both ends, let go of the middle, and promote balance”'s import strategy.“Both ends”, refers to resource industries and high-tech industries;“middle”, refers to labor-intensive and capital-intensive industries;“Balance”, refers to the basic balance of import and export w88 in the long term.
Expand service w88 with emerging market countries. Actively adjust the development ideas of service w88 and realize three major strategic changes in the development of service w88: transforming human resource advantages into service w88 advantages, transforming foreign government assistance into foreign service w88 behavior, and transforming foreign exchange activities into foreign service w88 activities. It is necessary to not only optimize the internal structure of the service industry, but also speed up legislation on service w88, establish a systematic service w88 promotion system, encourage enterprises to expand service w88 to emerging market countries, establish logistics and distribution systems, establish bank and insurance branches, and develop modern service industries.
Expand mutual investment with emerging market countries. On the one hand, it promotes Chinese enterprises to invest in emerging market countries and carry out various forms of cooperation, strengthen the“Go out”Construction of security system and establishment of enterprises“Go out”Coordination mechanism to improve enterprises“Go out”'s service system innovates investment methods in emerging market countries, and encourages the establishment of economic cooperation zones and industrial parks in emerging market countries; on the other hand, it attracts emerging market countries to invest in my country, encourages enterprises in emerging market countries to finance in my country's capital market, and encourages multinational companies in emerging market countries to set up regional headquarters, R&D centers, and procurement centers in my country.
Accelerate the establishment of free w88 areas with emerging market countries. In international regional economic cooperation, strengthening economic cooperation with emerging market countries is a strategic priority. The content of regional economic cooperation is not limited to traditional goods w88 arrangements, but also includes service w88 arrangements, investment and w88 facilitation and other contents, as well as coordination and cooperation in international economic affairs and world economic governance. On the basis of formulating clear strategic goals for regional economic cooperation, we should prioritize economic cooperation with emerging market countries and promote the process of establishing free w88 areas with more emerging market countries.
(The author is the Dean of the Institute of International Economics, w88 casino)
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