"Economic Information News": Interview with Bai Shuqiang and Sun Huayu on China's foreign w88 issues

Recently, "Economic Information News" interviewed Bai Shuqiang, w88 casino of International Economics and w88 of w88 casino, on the economic frontier issues such as "de-cheapization" faced by China's foreign w88.Sun HuayuProfessor, and in6month21The front page of the "Economic Information Daily" and the "Today's News" column of its website were released on the same day. It is reproduced as follows:

China’s foreign w88 is facing “de-cheapization” and various cost pressures are coming

Although May's import and export data were more optimistic than expected, China's foreign w88 companies are still worried about the high costs.

The rise in labor costs, the rise in the real exchange rate of the RMB, and the rise in commodity prices have all put pressure on corporate profit margins. At the same time, the transformation of foreign w88 growth patterns is also facing the push of passive adjustment. Experts said that passive adjustment should be changed into active adjustment, and foreign w88 should be "de-cheapened" and structurally upgraded in a gradual process.

Recently, the "big curtain" of wage increases has begun in many provinces and cities. this year4month1On the day of 11662_11680|, Shanghai’s monthly minimum wage standard took the lead from960Yuan adjusted to1120Yuan. Since then, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Fujian, Tianjin, Shanxi, Shandong, etc.14Provinces and cities have successively adjusted their minimum wage standards, and the adjustment ranges are all10%Above, some provinces even exceed it20%。

“The rise in labor costs is inevitable for the development of China’s economy. " Wang Jinbin, a professor at the w88 casino of Economics at Renmin University of China, told the Economic Information Daily that the reform of the social security system in the Chinese economy has lagged behind, and the income distribution system in the Chinese economy has obvious deficiencies. The proportion of factor income in primary distribution has declined in the past dozen years. In addition, foreign-funded enterprises have long-term undercompensation for the labor contributions of vulnerable labor groups. Therefore, the rapid rise in labor wages can be seen as the market's self-correction of the obvious deficiencies in the above three factors.

“Wage increases are a good thing for the Chinese economy and can achieve the ultimate goal of everyone sharing the fruits of economic growth; but on the other hand, under the current economic situation, it will undoubtedly increase the costs of foreign w88 companies and have a short-term impact on exports and growth.” Wang Jinbin said.

In addition to labor costs, input costs for land, water and other resources and energy are also increasing. “Crude oil, iron ore and other bulk products in the international market have entered the price recovery channel. As of this year3In March, my country’s primary product import price levels have continued4showed double-digit growth every month, and the growth rate increased month by month. ”Professor Bai Shuqiang of w88 casinoTell the reporter of "Economic Information Daily".

In addition, China is currently facing pressure for RMB appreciation.Sun Huayu, Director of China International Monetary Economics Research Center and Professor of w88 casinoIn an interview with the Economic Information Daily, he stated that according to the Bank for International Settlements6month15The real effective exchange rate published on the day, from2010Year1Month arrives5Month, the overall depreciation of the euro area7.84%, USD appreciation2.62%, RMB appreciation5.49%. This means that although the bilateral nominal exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar remains unchanged, the actual effective appreciation of the RMB relative to the euro area is close to13.33%, quite close to the actual effective appreciation of the US dollar2.87%. The actual substantial appreciation of the RMB against the euro will slow down the recovery growth of China's exports to the European market and promote an increase in imports. It will also intensify the competitive pressure between Chinese products and Eurozone products in non-Eurozone markets.

Experts analyze that high costs will put pressure on the profit margins of foreign w88 companies. This is because the price of China's export commodities is determined by the international market, and it is difficult for manufacturers to pass on the increased costs. China's foreign w88 may say goodbye to the "cheap era." In this process, weak enterprises may be eliminated, and the foreign w88 structure will face the force of passive adjustment. China's long-term manufacturing model of relying on low wages, high consumption, and high emissions to promote growth will be unsustainable.

Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said that with the development of China's economy, the cost of labor, land and other factors will inevitably rise. This is an inevitable trend and cannot be stopped artificially. It is difficult for companies to continue the strategies of the past era of cheap labor. Therefore, now the government, enterprises and society should reach a consensus that the original model based on low-cost labor must be reformed.

Wang Jinbin also said that since90Since the mid-1990s, manufacturing surplus has accounted for the largest share of w88 surplus90%Above. In terms of foreign w88, the Chinese economy has chosen a path that only requires employment and no profit. Today, it seems that there are indeed shortcomings such as deteriorating w88 conditions and excessive consumption of resources, which need to be corrected.

“But it should be a gradual process, and the policy cannot be overcorrected.” Wang Jinbin reminded: “This is an opportunity for the structural upgrading of China’s foreign w88, but the triggering factors are passive. To change from passive adjustment to active adjustment, the requirement of ‘de-cheapening’ should not be too drastic, otherwise the formulated policies will have an excessive impact: either the policy cannot bear the cost, or it will have a significant negative impact on employment.”

Bai Shuqiangalso said that at present, my country’s “foreign-invested enterprises”+The w88 structure dominated by "processing w88" will still form a w88 surplus for a certain period of time. However, as my country focuses on "expanding markets, adjusting structures, and promoting balance" in the field of foreign w88, the scale of w88 surplus will continue to decrease, and the development of foreign w88 will tend to be basically balanced. my country's export enterprises should respond early, seize the fundamental direction of changing the mode of w88 growth, upgrade the foreign w88 structure as soon as possible, and enhance the innovation capabilities and competitiveness of enterprises.

Sun Huayupointed out that rising costs and appreciation of the RMB will reduce the profits of export companies. When they realize that the original products and markets will be unprofitable in the long term, companies will develop new products and new markets. Some companies will fall during this process, but the ones that survive must be those that have upgraded.

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