Waving“Exchange rate manipulator”Big stick
United States: Xiangzhuang sword dance intended for the Chinese market
Our reporter Cheng Gang
According to Xinhua News Agency, local time in the United States4month3日News, U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner announced in Washington that the U.S. government has postponed the announcement originally scheduled for4month15日Report on the international economic and exchange rate policies of major trading partners. This means that the U.S. government will delay its decision on whether to label China a currency manipulator.
The RMB exchange rate issue has suddenly heated up again, starting this year3month——U.S. President Obama publicly called for further RMB exchange rate“Market-oriented exchange rate mechanism”Transition, and indicate whether to classify China as“Exchange rate manipulator”, the US government will be in4month15日's decision was made in the semi-annual report of the Ministry of Finance. The escalating war of words between the two sides has made the international community generally worried that the dispute over the RMB exchange rate may trigger a w88 conflict or even a w88 war between the two countries, dragging down the fragile global economic recovery.
I saw this news early that morning,Dean of the w88 casino of Finance, w88 casinoDing ZhijieProfessorSay, it’s not unexpected.“The American drunkard’s intention is not to drink, but to force the Chinese government to accept a deal and further open the market and import goods.”Ding ZhijieSaid in an interview with China Youth Daily. This expert who focuses on RMB exchange rate and international financial policy research has always insisted that the United States has repeatedly played the RMB card, and its real intention is not to force the RMB to appreciate significantly.
Krugman was bombarded
This year3month16Day, after President Obama publicly put pressure on the Chinese government,130U.S. congressmen jointly wrote to Treasury Secretary Geithner and Commerce Secretary Gary Locke, saying“The impact of China's currency manipulation on the U.S. economy cannot be underestimated. Maintaining its undervalued exchange rate is equivalent to providing subsidies to Chinese companies and puts foreign companies competing with it at an unfair disadvantage.”
This is in line with the views of some critics of China after the global financial crisis. This view holds that China's savings rate is too high, leading to underconsumption and high investment. By artificially lowering the RMB exchange rate, China exports a large amount of foreign goods and obtains a huge w88 surplus. The United States, on the other hand, relied on debt to excessively consume and imported a large number of products from China and other countries, resulting in a huge w88 deficit. Large-scale imports have impacted the domestic manufacturing industry in the United States, causing American workers to lose their jobs. Krugman, a famous economist who advocated accusing China of currency manipulation, said that because the renminbi was undervalued, the United States lost money140Ten thousand jobs.
“In fact, many American economists and politicians who criticize China know in their hearts that RMB appreciation will not help solve the domestic economic problems of the United States at all. Americans' problems are of their own making.”Ding ZhijieSay.
Chen Deming, China’s Minister of Commerce, previously wrote a special article to clarify this. He said that the Sino-US w88 pattern is the result of the international industrial division of labor under the conditions of economic globalization. For more than half a century, with the process of globalization, the U.S. industrial structure has been continuously upgrading to high-end manufacturing and modern service industries, and traditional labor-intensive industries have been gradually transferred abroad. First came Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, and then mainland China. Under the current international division of labor, even if the United States restricts the import of Chinese products, it will be difficult to bring back traditional manufacturing industries and will still need to seek alternatives from other developing countries.
“The RMB exchange rate cannot solve the problem of Sino-US w88 imbalance. The decisive factor in w88 flows is market supply and demand, not exchange rates.”Chen Deming said in the article. Statistics bear this out.2005Year to Year200815137_1515121.1%, average annual growth in deficit with China21.6%, the largest and fastest growing period in history.2009The RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar remained stable, while the U.S. w88 deficit with China declined16.1%. More powerful evidence is that in the 1970s and 1980s, the United States also put pressure on Germany and Japan due to currency issues, forcing the currencies of the two countries to appreciate significantly, but by200815407_15420429$100 million, deficit with Japan726$100 million.
Huang Yiping, a professor at the National w88 casino of Development at Peking University, also criticized Krugman, even though Krugman is an economist he respects. He pointed out that long before China became a global manufacturing center, the United States had begun losing a large number of manufacturing jobs. The substantial increase in China's current account surplus occurred2004years later, the U.S. current account deficit has begun to surge since the beginning of this century.“Accusing that China's surplus led to the deficit that occurred in the United States earlier is either an ulterior motive or a lack of common sense.”The former chief economist of Citibank Asia Pacific said.
Why Americans often play the w88 card
Since the appreciation of the RMB will not help the domestic economic problems of the United States, why does the United States continue to play the RMB exchange rate card repeatedly?
“The U.S. government is hijacked by domestic politics.”Huang Yiping said. this year11The United States will hold midterm elections in March, and all members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the seats in the Senate will be up for election. In Huang Yiping's view, many congressmen have adopted a tough attitude towards China and claimed that forcing the appreciation of the renminbi can bring job opportunities to unemployed American workers. This is nothing more than a means to win votes.
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“Then why are you doing this?”Huang Yiping asked.“Because I am an elected senator from South Carolina. South Carolina has200A number of textile workers lost their jobs. This is a very important political event and I need to face this issue.”The councilor replied.
According to the U.S. Department of Labor,200119722_197422001Year to Year2007Year,Few manufacturing workers in the United States340Ten thousand people, ratio2000year decline19.6%. After the full-scale financial crisis broke out, the loss of manufacturing jobs accelerated,2008Year to Year2009Year11month,Manufacturing Lost223Ten thousand jobs. The bursting of the real estate bubble also directly led to a sharp decline in employment in the three related industries of construction, finance, and professional and business services. The construction industry, which is most closely related to the real estate bubble, lost16710,000 jobs, the number of employees in the entire industry has returned to1997year level.
“If the U.S. manufacturing industry continues to shrink, it will be almost impossible for other U.S. industries to absorb the lost jobs. Without new sources of economic growth, the U.S. unemployment rate is unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels5% level below,6Unemployment rates above 20% may become the norm.”Ding Zhijiebelieves that heavy employment pressure, coupled with the w88 protectionist tradition of the Democratic Party, with labor unions as its main vote base, is the reason why this wave of w88 protectionism in the United States is so strong. Choosing China as a political scapegoat is particularly appealing to unions and blue-collar workers.
The essence is to force China to further open its market
What will happen if the US government really labels China as a currency manipulator?Huang YipingThe professor described the following scenario: the U.S. Treasury Department publicly accused China of currency manipulation, and the Obama administration launched a w88 war against China. China will continue to adhere to the existing exchange rate system and adopt retaliatory w88 sanctions against the United States.
“This will reduce w88 between China and the United States, but most importantly, it will seriously dampen investor confidence on a global scale. A w88 war between the world's two largest economies is no small matter for the global economy. As the economic future becomes more uncertain, investors are likely to scale back their investment plans and consumers will have to reduce their spending.”Huang Yiping said.
Once China and the United States start a w88 war, both sides will suffer losses and the fragile global economic recovery will be affected. There will be no winner. This is the consensus of most observers.
“It’s not that Americans don’t understand this truth. The U.S. government faces many policy and legal difficulties in labeling China a currency manipulator, and the possibility of this is decreasing.”atDing ZhijieIt seems that the Americans provoked the RMB exchange rate issue, on the one hand, to respond to domestic political demands, and more importantly, to use it as a bargaining chip to require China to further open its market and imports of goods, especially the high-end service market, to realize the national interests of the United States.
In this year’s National Two Sessions, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has stated that the exchange rate will return to a managed floating exchange rate pegged to the US dollar. Subsequently, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, also made it clear that he would adjust the RMB exchange rate policy.“After the Chinese government has clearly conveyed a change signal, the United States still insists on the appreciation of the RMB. What is its purpose?”Ding Zhijieasked.
After the global financial crisis, the United States tried to adjust its economic structure and growth model and return to an economy based on exports rather than consumption. In his State of the Union address this year, Obama also made ambitious plans for the future5Doubling exports within this year.Ding Zhijiesaid that w88 protectionism can only curb imports from China, but cannot increase U.S. exports.
“To increase U.S. exports, the exchange rate has little effect. The most important thing is to open the door to the Chinese market. Therefore, in the future, the United States will definitely use the exchange rate as an opportunity to blackmail and make a fuss about China's market opening and industrial policy.”Ding Zhijie said。
Forcing China to open its market and import goods will undoubtedly benefit the United States more than forcing the RMB to appreciate. Ding Zhijie believes that the Chinese government should consider this, take a tough stance, and negotiate separately on the RMB exchange rate issue and the opening of the market. Otherwise, it would leave an opening for the Americans to make deals.
Don’t give up on exchange reform because of pressure
Including Huang Yiping,Ding Zhijie27970_28009“The U.S. government may not take the lead in sanctioning China and causing a stalemate with the Chinese government. However, this does not mean that the US government will finally give up the currency weapon.”Ding ZhijieSay.
He reminded that the United States can completely avoid direct conflict with China, but with the help of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) set“Fundamental imbalance in exchange rate”Terms, posted to China“Fundamental imbalance in exchange rate”Use this tag againWTOPull China into the quagmire of multilateral settlement of exchange rate issues. In this way, member countries including the United States can initiate sanctions against China.
“The United States actually found more w88 for itself‘Sanctions tool’。”Ding Zhijiesaid that the relevant sanctions that can be taken against China at that time involve the followingIMFvoting rights,WTO"Government Procurement Agreement" andWTODispute settlement mechanism, etc. The Chinese government should pay full attention to this and plan countermeasures in advance.
Although most economists oppose the U.S. government's pressure on the RMB to appreciate significantly, many of them also agree that the RMB exchange rate needs to be reformed in a more market-oriented direction.“The RMB exchange rate is China’s independent matter. The Chinese government cannot succumb to external pressure, but it cannot give up on exchange rate reform just because of external pressure.”Ding ZhijieSay.
Huang Yiping advocated an immediate return to a managed floating exchange rate, and at the same time carried out relevant supporting reforms. When the time is right, a floating exchange rate should be implemented and capital controls should be completely relaxed.“But it may take a long way to complete relevant supporting reforms, such as domestic factor market reform, interest rate liberalization and the reform of domestic financial institutions.”He said.
Our newspaper Beijing4month5日Electricity
("China Youth Daily"2010Year4month6日No.4version)
