w88 casino News（Correspondent Wang Qi Zhong Zixuan)On the evening of March 29, 2016, the w88 slot Liping special session of the Financial Culture Festival "Huiyuan Famous Teacher Lecture Hall" was held in the International Conference Hall on the third floor of the Chengxin Building. This lecture takes inflation as the theme and provides an in-depth analysis of practical economic problems.
He Liping is a professor and director of the Finance Department of the w88 casino of Economics and Business Administration of Beijing Normal University. He is also a special researcher of the National Economic Research Institute of the China Economic System Reform Research Foundation and a member of the Academic Committee of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Ding Zhijie, assistant to the president and executive deputy dean of the Graduate w88 casino of the w88 casino, Fan Yanhui, deputy dean of the w88 casino of Finance, Wang Chunlei, deputy secretary of the branch party committee, and Chen Yuping, secretary of the youth league committee, attended the event.
Lecture guest
What is the indicator to measure the level of inflation?
w88 slot LipingFirst, we discussed what indicators to use to measure inflation. w88 slot pointed out that the titleCPI, coreCPI、PPIandGDP deflator(Gross Domestic Product Deflator) are the four main measures.w88 slot LipingThink: coreCPIBetter than titles when analyzing trendsCPI；PPIhas a high degree of international connections. In the context of economic globalization, when talking about inflation, we must first look atPPIChanges in the index;GDP deflatorcan more comprehensively reflect the economic trend of an economy and a country.himemphasized: “To measure whether a country has deflation, the most important economic indicator isGDP, whereasGDP deflatorandCPI16672_16706GDP deflatorThere was a negative number for the first time, which reflects that China’s economy is on the verge of deflation to a certain extent.
Speakerw88 slot Liping
China faces low inflation. Why?
What is the reason for China’s low inflation level?w88 slot LipingGuide students to consider two aspects: domestic currency and monetary policy, and low-inflation imports.
Robert Lucas, Jr(1996 Nobel Prize Winner in Economics)’s point of view is: Generally speaking, the growth in the quantity of M2 goes hand in hand with inflation. Butw88 slot Lipingquestioned: "Around 2000, the American M2 andGDP deflator21428_21450CPIandGDP deflatorThere is almost no connection between the two, especially in China. What's the problem? ”
himIt is believed that people's demand for basic goods and services is declining, and the nominal demand for various assets is accelerating. The investment role of currency has been developed and magnified. In order to establish the credibility of the currency, the monetary authorities have managed inflation expectations and stabilized the exchange rate. The appreciation of the exchange rate has jointly led to significant changes in the relationship between currency and inflation.
Since the 1970s, the frequent outbreaks of financial crises have created extremely strong demand for stable, low-risk U.S. Treasury bonds. The resulting decline in the yields on U.S. Treasury bonds has in turn led to low yields on major countries' Treasury bonds. Similar to U.S. Treasury bonds, changes in gold prices do not necessarily reflect changes in inflation. On the contrary, they reflect changes in certain default risks. Gold has evolved from an "inflation hedging" tool to a "safety hedging" tool. Through these examples,w88 slot LipingConclusion: The increase in capital investment demand weakens the correlation between currency and inflation.
About imported deflation,w88 slot Lipingsaid: “It seems that international commodity prices have an inverse correlation with the US dollar exchange rate. It seems that changes in supply are the main cause of price changes. It seems that oil prices are closely related to China’s imports. ”w88 slot LipingUsing three "seems", these views are subtly and clearly questioned. w88 slot said that under the influence of domestic factors and the different effects of the "law of one price", the internal prices within each countryPPIandCPI25944_25991w88 slot LipingPoint out that the trends of PPI are very similar, andCPI26623_26654
Due to changes in the U.S. dollar exchange rate and domestic demand in the United States, international inflation has changed significantly. This has a particularly obvious impact on small open economies, but for large economies, the cause of imported deflation is secondary.
Is the path of “negative interest rates” feasible?
Can negative interest rates reverse the trend of deflation?w88 slot LipingTake Japan, a typical negative interest rate economy, as an example. With the deposit interest rate close to 0 for 16 consecutive years, Japan's GDP growth rate and CPI growth rate are both very sluggish, indicating that the "negative interest rate policy" promotesCPIandGDP29594_29608
All in all, many economies are already on the verge of deflation. Weakness in actual demand will definitely lead the central banks of these economies to implement "negative interest rate policies," but it will be difficult to reverse the decline in the short term. The expansion of the asset sector and the accumulation of large amounts of debt are new uses of money supply, which has also led to fiscal austerity problems in major economies, thus dragging down the recovery of the real economy. For a long time to come, the mainstream trend of the world economy will be low inflation. As long as countries continue to credit money and central bank systems, inflation will not die. But within a certain period of time, inflation will be hidden in asset price inflation and capital flows.
w88 slot Liping’s special lecture inspirationw88 casinoStudents rethink the research methods of economic growth. believeatIn the not-too-distant future, under the international background of low inflation and low growth, China will become a bright landscape in the world economy.
w88 slot LipingTaking photos with lecture participants
