(Source: China-Singapore Jingwei 2026-01-04)
After the United States launched a military attack on Venezuela, what impact will it have on crude oil, the U.S. dollar, and gold?
Oil prices are good in the short term and bad in the long term
According to Reuters, Venezuela’s oil exports have hit their lowest point since Trump announced a blockade of all sanctioned tankers entering and exiting the country’s waters, and are now paralyzed because port captains have not received requests to authorize ships carrying oil to sail, four sources close to Venezuela’s oil operations said on Saturday.
Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves, and its oil exports in November 2025 were approximately 921,000 barrels per day.
Zhu Guangming, a crude oil analyst at Zhuochuang Information, told Sino-Singapore Jingwei that in the short and long term, the impact on the crude oil market is completely opposite.
Zhu Guangming said that in the short term, it is obviously good for the oil market, and oil exports and production will be affected. After exports were suspended and production suppressed, crude oil prices were boosted, considering production of 900,000 barrels per day and exports of 600,000 barrels per day. After the market opens, SC and asphalt futures are more likely to be boosted.
In the long run, Zhu Guangming said that if the United States takes over, production and exports will increase, which will be obviously negative. After the United States intervenes, Venezuela's oil is taken over by the United States. Especially after the entry of American oil companies, they will increase investment, oil field exploration, and repair ports and terminals. Oil production and exports will increase significantly. This is obviously negative, but considering that Venezuela's oil infrastructure is weak, repairs will take a long time.
Zhu Guangming predicts that U.S. crude oil will rise to around US$60/barrel in the short term, and then slowly fall back to the range of US$55-60/barrel.
Dong Xiucheng, Executive Dean of the China International Carbon Neutral Economic Research Institute, w88 casinoAnalysis, in the short term, Venezuela’s oil exports are expected to be significantly reduced, impacting the market supply and demand. In the medium to long term, OPEC+ (OPEC+) has about 5.2 million barrels per day of spare production capacity and has the ability to gradually fill the market gap. The increase in oil prices will still be limited by fundamentals and gradually return to a balance between supply and demand. As time goes by, the market will gradually adapt to the new supply and demand pattern, and oil prices will also show a steady downward trend. However, in this process, the evolution of the geopolitical conflict between the United States and Venezuela will directly affect the degree of turmoil in the oil market.
Dong Xiuchengmentioned that in addition to the impact on the supply side, changes in transportation and inventory cannot be ignored. Rising shipping risks in the Caribbean will lead to increased transportation costs, which will undoubtedly further increase pressure on oil prices. The above factors working together may drive oil prices to fluctuate violently and increase market uncertainty.
Accelerating long-term U.S. dollar credit losses
In terms of its impact on the U.S. dollar, Bai Xue, senior deputy director of Oriental Jincheng Research and Development Department, and Xu Jiaqi, an analyst, told Sino-Singapore Jingwei that the Venezuelan incident temporarily pushed up the U.S. dollar index mainly through risk sentiment. Venezuela is the country with the largest crude oil reserves in the world. The turmoil in the situation has pushed up the crude oil supply risk premium, raised inflation expectations and suppressed market risk appetite. Funds may pour into traditional safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and US bonds in the short term, thus promoting the short-term strength of the US dollar. However, considering that Venezuela’s economic and financial size is limited and it has been subject to U.S. sanctions for a long time, the impact on the U.S. dollar is more of an emotional one and it is difficult to change the long-term trend of the U.S. dollar.
“The Venezuela incident will be difficult to shake the US dollar’s core credit and international currency status in the short term, but it will accelerate the long-term credit loss of the US dollar.” Dongfang Jincheng further stated that due to the lack of an alternative global currency and settlement system, the core status of the US dollar will not be shaken in the short term, and the focus of market discussions is mainly focused on oil and commodities, rather than the credit of the US dollar. In the long term, if the United States frequently intervenes in other countries' internal affairs with unilateral military and financial means, it will continue to weaken global trust in the U.S. dollar, push more countries to try non-U.S. dollars currencies in bilateral w88 and energy settlements, and accelerate the diversification of the global currency landscape. However, this process will be gradual and long-term.
In terms of monetary policy, Dongfang Jincheng believes that this incident will hardly change the core logic of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. The core of the Fed's monetary policy is anchored in U.S. inflation, employment and financial stability, rather than a single geopolitical event. In the short term, although rising oil prices may push up inflation expectations, Venezuela's crude oil production has only accounted for about 1-2% of the world's crude oil production in recent years, and the United States' domestic crude oil production capacity is sufficient, making it difficult to have a trend impact on U.S. domestic inflation. If oil prices remain high, it may cause the Federal Reserve to lose confidence in the fall in inflation and postpone interest rate cuts, but it will not reverse this year's interest rate cut cycle. Only in extreme circumstances when the situation gets out of control and triggers violent turmoil in the global financial market, will the Federal Reserve be able to stabilize the market through interest rate cuts or liquidity tools. The probability is currently extremely low.
“All in all, this event is the first ‘black swan’ of the new year, which mainly affects the prices of oil and safe-haven assets, but does not directly impact the U.S. dollar system or change the policy logic of the Federal Reserve, so it has a weak substantive impact on the U.S. dollar and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.” Dongfang Jincheng said.
Is gold price pushing higher again?What impact will tensions in Venezuela have on gold prices?
Wang Wenhu, an analyst at Hongyuan Futures Research Institute, said that Venezuela’s gold resource potential is estimated to be 3,500 tons, and its gold production in 2024 will be 31 tons, which is in the middle of the global gold production.
According to a Yide Futures research report, Venezuela’s gold reserves, coupled with incompletely explored placer gold deposits and primary gold deposits (such as Bolivar State and the Amacuro Delta area), geologists estimate that its total potential reserves may exceed 3,000 tons. It accounts for 1.4%-1.9% of the world's proven gold reserves. Although the total amount is not top-notch, its plateau gold mines have high grade (up to 10-15 g/ton in some mining areas) and great mining potential.
Wang Wenhu analyzed that in the short term, the U.S. military attack on Venezuela has been temporarily suspended, and the impact on gold prices may be limited. In the short term, more attention needs to be paid to the Bloomberg Commodity Index from January 8 to 14, which may rebalance the share of gold and silver. is heavy, it may trigger "technical selling" by passive funds. It is expected that the scale of futures selling will account for 9% and 3% of the total holdings of silver and gold respectively; on January 9, the number of new non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate in the United States in December also have a large potential impact on gold prices.
In the medium term, if the United States further increases its military intervention in Venezuela and Venezuela adopts tougher response measures, the relevant situation may escalate in stages, which may support the prices of gold and crude oil. In the long term, if the United States or the dollar weakens, it may support the price of gold.
Wang Wenhu suggested to pay attention to the support level near the London gold price of 4150-4250 US dollars/ounce and the pressure level near 4450-4550 US dollars/ounce.
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