(Source: Jiemian News 2026-03-13)
The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on March 11 that 32 member countries unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to deal with the tight global crude oil supply. This is the IEA's largest reserve release operation since its establishment in 1974. However, after the news was released, oil prices rose instead of falling, with Brent crude returning above $100 per barrel.
Analysts pointed out that although the scale of this reserve release is said to be the largest in history, it is still difficult to make up for the huge supply gap. Until the war in the Middle East becomes more clear, oil prices will remain high.
Since the United States and Israel jointly launched a military attack on Iran at the end of February, international oil prices have soared. At the close of trading on March 12, the price of London Brent crude oil futures for May delivery rose by 10.6% to US$101.75 per barrel, a 39% increase from the closing price on the last trading day before the conflict (February 27); the price of light crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 10.5% to US$96.39 per barrel, a 43% increase from the closing price of the last trading day before the conflict.
Dong Xiucheng, Executive Dean of the China International Carbon Neutral Economic Research Institute, w88 casinotold Jiemian News that the core reason why the market does not buy into IEA member states' reserve releases is that the supply gap is too large, and the scale of reserve releases is far from enough to make up for the impact of the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, production interruptions in the Persian Gulf region, and the current shortage of crude oil storage.
“This can be understood from three levels. The first is that the supply gap is too large and the release of reserves is not enough.”Dong Xiuchengsaid that the Strait of Hormuz, as the global energy "throat", accounts for 20%-30% of global seaborne oil w88. Now this channel is almost paralyzed, with a daily supply gap of about 16 million to 20 million barrels. Gulf oil-producing countries have been forced to significantly reduce production as their oil storage facilities are approaching saturation. The 400 million barrel reserve seems huge, but the average daily release is only 1.2 million to 4 million barrels, which is only enough to make up a quarter to a fifth of the gap.
Secondly, the speed is too slow, and the water from far away cannot quench the thirst near you.Dong Xiuchengpointed out that taking the United States as an example, the 172 million barrels it promised to release will take about 120 days to be delivered, and will not arrive in the market until the end of March at the earliest, while the spot market is "bleeding" every day.
Third, what the market is afraid of is not "lack of oil", but "cutoff + protracted war".Dong XiuchengEmphasizing that the market's pricing logic has shifted from "how much inventory there is" to "whether Hormuz can be opened and whether the war will stop", the IEA announced the largest reserve release in history at this time, which in turn exacerbated market panic. The signal it sent to the market was: Even the IEA believes that supply disruptions may last for a long time.
“The signal significance of the IEA’s release of reserves is greater than the actual effect. What really determines oil prices is the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz and the direction of the conflict in the Middle East.”Dong Xiuchengsaid, “As long as these two factors do not improve, there is a high probability that oil prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels, or even rise higher.”
Wang Wenhu, an analyst at Hongyuan Futures, also told Jiemian News that when the Strait of Hormuz will be opened to navigation and the direction of the conflict in the Middle East are key factors that determine oil prices. Until then, oil prices will continue to run at a high level.
He also pointed out that the news of the release of reserves had been digested in advance, and the IEA's release of reserves at this time confirmed the seriousness of the situation. "The G7 countries have begun discussing the release of strategic oil reserves around March 9 and have conveyed relevant news to the market. Crude oil prices have already factored in this information in advance. By the time the IEA officially announces it, all the benefits will be gone." Wang Wenhu said that the larger the release, the more it proves that the G7 countries expect that the Iranian conflict may continue to escalate and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may last longer. News such as Iran's mine laying and attacks on merchant ships continue to ferment, further exacerbating market concerns about long-term oil supply cuts in the Persian Gulf.
The reason behind this surge in oil prices is the epic supply shock caused by the substantial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. On the evening of Thursday (March 12) Beijing time, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei issued his first statement, stating that he would not give up revenge and that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed.
The monthly report released by the IEA on Thursday showed that the flow in the Strait of Hormuz, which used to carry about 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products per day, has now almost reached zero. Gulf oil-producing countries have been forced to significantly reduce production as their oil storage facilities are approaching saturation. Crude oil production alone has been reduced by about 8 million barrels per day. If condensate and natural gas liquids are included, the total production reduction has reached at least 10 million barrels per day, equivalent to nearly 10% of global demand. The IEA has reduced its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2026 from 2.4 million barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day.
BMI, a research institution under Fitch, told Jiemian News that in the early days of the war, the institution had analyzed three oil price trend scenarios, namely: low scenario (75-90 US dollars/barrel), medium scenario (90-110 US dollars/barrel), and high scenario (110-130 US dollars/barrel and above). Taking into account the changing dynamics of the conflict, the actual price results may change among the three scenarios.
BMI pointed out that the current situation shows that although the scale of supply disruption and the severity of the attack on infrastructure are in line with the medium-to-high scenario, because the supply loss has the possibility of rapid recovery, it is closer to the characteristics of the low scenario. Therefore, whether the oil price falls back to US$75/barrel at the end of March or surges to US$130/barrel, the two possibilities are basically the same, and the key depends on how long the conflict lasts.
BMI tends to believe that "conflicts are short-lived" and may last approximately 2 to 4 weeks. Based on this judgment, BMI expects Brent crude oil prices to fall back to US$66/barrel in the second quarter.
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