(Source: China News Service, China-Singapore Jingwei, March 17, 2026)

Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, international oil prices have continued to fluctuate and rise recently.

Wind data shows that on March 17, Brent oil prices once again exceeded the US$100 per barrel mark, and WTI oil prices also rose to above US$95 per barrel. Since the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on February 28, Brent oil prices have increased by more than 50%, and WTI oil prices have also increased by more than 25%.

This first made Japan, which is highly dependent on the Middle East for crude oil, unable to bear it.

The Japanese government is scheduled to release oil reserves starting on the 16th. The total release volume is about 80 million barrels, which is equivalent to Japan’s 45-day oil supply. It is the largest release volume since the country established the national oil reserve system in 1978.

According to Japanese media reports, its private oil reserves began to be released on the 16th, and the government will issue subsidies to gasoline wholesalers on the 19th.

Why was Japan the most active and rapid in releasing its oil reserves?

Wu Yingjie, researcher at the Japan Research Center of the w88 casinoSino-Singapore Jingwei said that this is related to Japan’s relatively fragile energy structure. "More than 90% of Japan's crude oil is imported from the Middle East, and most of it is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, this transportation interruption is a supply crisis for Japan, and there is no local alternative production capacity."

Wu Yingjie further pointed out, "If the conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, Japan's crude oil imports may drop sharply by late March. This will trigger a continued surge in domestic oil prices."

The retail price of gasoline in Tokyo has risen to 190 yen per liter on March 11, while it was still more than 150 yen per liter a week ago.

"After the oil price surges, it will also impact various industries in Japan, causing their costs to soar sharply, with agricultural transportation and manufacturing being the first to bear the brunt. The operating pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises will also increase sharply." Wu Yingjie said that coupled with the current depreciation of the yen, oil is priced in US dollars, which will lead to a sharp increase in Japan's imported inflationary pressure, which may eventually return Japan to a state of stagflation.

This will undoubtedly bring a huge test to the new cabinet that has just been formed. Wu Yingjie emphasized, "If the oil price issue cannot be resolved as soon as possible, it will cause problems for people's livelihood."

In addition, in Wu Yingjie's view, the relatively large strategic oil reserves have given Japan some confidence.

Data from Japan’s Ministry of Economy, w88 and Industry shows that as of the end of 2025, Japan’s oil reserves will be approximately 470 million barrels, equivalent to 254 days of consumption. Among them, the national reserve is equivalent to 146 days, the private reserves of refiners and trading companies are equivalent to 101 days, and the common reserves held by oil-producing countries in Japan are equivalent to 7 days.

According to Wu Yingjie, due to limited release volume, strategic petroleum reserves are generally given priority to local refineries to prevent terminal oil prices from rapidly rising due to supply panic.

However, releasing strategic reserves does not mean that the Japanese government can sit back and relax.

Wu Yingjie explained that if the war continues, the Strait of Hormuz will be blocked for a long time, and what Japan will do after 254 days will become a big problem.

"In addition, because the government needs to issue subsidies to gasoline wholesalers to curb the rise in oil prices, this will make Japan's already very high debt burden even worse." Wu Yingjie said.

Data shows that as of the end of 2025, Japan’s total national debt, including government bonds, borrowings and government short-term securities, exceeded 1,342 trillion yen, setting a record high.

(Text: Song Yafen Editor: Li Xiaoxuan Editor: Yuan Yuan Jia Yifu)

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