（Source: China News Weekly 2024-06-17)
June 17, local time，After the Israeli w88 online casinoMinister of National Security Ben Gevil requested to join the Israeli Cabinet，Israeli Prime Minister Neitanahu made a decision to resolve the cabinet during the scattered war。
9th，Israel's main opposition national solidarity party leader Benny Ganz announced the withdrawal of the war in the war through a television speech，Call for a parliamentary election in advance。Ganded accusing the Neitaniah government from obstructing victory，and warn that the conflict of Gaza may last for several years。
At the same time, it was announced that the withdrawal cabinet observer Gadi Eisen Cott。He and Ganz belong to the National Unity Party，Former Chief of Staff of the Israeli National Defense Force。The Cabinet of the Wars "Go One Yu Two"，It is expected that Neitanahu will rely more on hardships，As a result, the situation of Gaza is further upgraded。
w88 casino
Benny Ganz was the commander of the Israel Army and the Minister of Defense，It is a representative of the middle left wing in Israeli politics。The National Unity Party led by his leaders occupy an important position in Israeli politics，and Laipid's own future party almost flat。
October 7, 2023 after Israel was attacked by Hamas，Due to the government's existence of congenital defects, the forces of all parties cannot be coordinated，Lepad Group, led by Neitanahu, immediately began to negotiate with different political factions in parliament。After a few days of fierce negotiations，Likardia Group finally reached an agreement with the National Unity Alliance。The National Unity Alliance is Gandz, which was established in 2022, mainly in the wild political alliance，Ganz also became the government's "No. 2 character"，plus the then Secretary of Defense Garant, who was originally a relative of Neitanahu，Three -person Cabinet will be formed smoothly。In addition，There are 3 observer in the Cabinet of War，Two of them are Consiste by Neitanahu，Demol, who is also Likarde and Delhi, who represents the extreme forces of religious religions，The w88 casino games loginother is the Gandz Conscanium, who was former Chief of Staff,。With the absolute advantage of the number of personnel，Neutanahu played the leading role during the battle。
After the formation of the cabinet during the war，Good basic operation，Until the Ganzco team of the Gambus team in January this year, Isecit began to publicly confront the Gaza policy of Neitanahu。Neutanahu, although a division's troops have been withdrawn from Gaza，But he kept reiterating from the media，The military intervention of Gaza will continue until it will be completely eliminated。December last year，Eisen Cott experienced the pain of bereavement，His son sacrificed as a young soldier in the battle of Gaza。Then he increasingly directly questioned the war strategy of Neitanahu's war strategy，Destroy Hamas is unrealistic at all。He also criticized Neitanahu to give priority to eliminating Hamas instead of saving hostages，Can no longer represent the interests of the Jews。So，He asked the cabinet when Israel dissolved during the dismissal of Israel，Election in the next few months。
Neitanahu is not possible for the state when the country is in a state of war，Rejected Eisencort’s petition。This is regarded as the formation of the Ganz camp after the establishment of the war.，Because Essenkot's public shouting, it is impossible to discuss with Gandz in advance，At that time，Ganz is not convenient to publicly criticize the performance of Neitanahu。In this case，Ganded needs to express his dissatisfaction with Neitanahu policy through Eisencout。
Gandz and Neitanahu, which originally belonged to the two major camps，The quarrel between the two is still available。But the relationship between Minister of Defense Garrant and Neitana also also ended in the rupture，It is surprising。As early as January this year, Israeli media reported that two people have been turned over，but not confirmed。early May，Garant publicly requested that Neitanahu's plan to give up by Israel after the war abandoned the military custody of Gasha，Instead, it is managed by cooperating with international organizations through the Palestinian Liberation Organization。It is generally considered，This remark from Garant is a challenge to the inland of Neitanahu in the Libard Party.。Different from this policy disagreement is generally discussed at a closed -door meeting within Likardia Group，Then uniformly unified the caliber，Garant's accountability undoubted。And，As the Minister of Defense，Military professionals like Garant proposed to objection to the Prime Minister of Israel，It will make ordinary people in Israel more doubt that the Gazana after war management plan of Neitanahu。More people do not understand，Why does Israel take a long time to take over the muddy water of Gaza?
What is unexpected to Neitanahu is，Ganz, who has always been related w88 casino games loginto Garrant, has also publicly agreed to Garrant's Gaza Plan，This undoubted。And Garant and Ganz's opposition to Neitanahu's long -term trustees of Gaza policy，It is essentially to be consistent with the United States。The United States has clearly advocated，After the war, promote the establishment of a non -military government in Gasha，and are ready to invite multiple Arab countries to participate，and after completing the basic reconstruction of Gaza to the "two countries' plan"。This is a resolute opposition from Neitanahu's policy。The signal sent by Garant to the United States is clear，Regardless of whether the Neitaniahu regime continues to exist，He is consistent with the vision of the Gaza war in the United States。And the more ambitious Gandz, who is more ambitious, likes Garrant crazy，It is reasonable。
Gandz begins to prepare for the election
Actually，Gandz has been prepared for the resignation。May 18，Gandz set off "ultimatum" to Neitanahu at a public press conference，Require Neitanahu to formulate a combat plan for Gaza before June 8th，Make a choice between "victory and disaster"。He proposed six requirements，respectively: eliminate Hamas and realize non -military affairs of Gaza; bring hostages; determine Gaza's alternative (Hamas) governance plan; Relations; establish a unified Israeli national service standard。
Ganz thinks，The Government of Neitanahu has no progress in the above 6 aspects，So he can only leave the war in the war with a heavy mood。but，This heavy mood of Gandz is likely to have no direct relationship with Neitanahu's policy，Instead, keep staying in the wartime cabinet that has begun to damage his popularity in China。
Since the new round of Palestinian -Israeli conflict in October last year，Gandz has led Neitanahu in most polls，Become a popular candidate for the next Prime Minister。Part of the reason is that Gandz's supreme influence in the military，Let the public think that only he can ensure that similar tragedies will not happen again。Danitz's leading advantage has been declining recently，Some polls show that Neitanahu has stopped the slump，And some Israelis seem to be dissatisfied with the unsatisfactory performance of Gambed's cabinet during the war。
Israeli mainstream newspapers "Maariv" (Maariv "，The situation during the war has changed，Ganz is no longer regarded as the only replacement candidate for Neitanahu，He will have to compete with other opposition politicians for leadership，Including Labeman and Libeman and others who have served as Minister of Defense。
but，Gandz, which is regarded as the "largest pro -beauty" within the Israeli government，It is still the main challenger of Neitanahu。Early March of this year，Gandz once visited the United States without being authorized by Neitanahu or even notified the latter，and met with w88 casino gamesseveral senior officials from the Biden government，Including Vice President Harris、Secretary of State Brosky and National Security Consultant Sha Liven。With the coordination of Neitanahu，Gandz directly meets the core high -level US core high -level in addition to Biden，This is obviously a political operation。During this meeting，Gandz is likely to discuss how to cope with Neitanahu and how to maintain the coordination of the United States。Neganahu, although the US government prefers Ganz, a mild foreign policy，But such a daring "more than -level diplomacy" indicates，The mutual trust of the two no longer exists。
Neitanahu's governance prospects dim
Neganahu although it is retained，But still hit Ganz’s "ultimatum"。He said，Ganz should send the ultimatum to Hamas instead of Israeli Prime Minister。Although Neitanahu also needs Gambed to buffer the pressure of the extremely right wing，But Gande's decision will not bring real -time risks to the government，The governing alliance led by Neitanahu still occupy more than half of the seats in Congress。but，Ganz withdrawing from the Cabinet of War，Let Neitanahu has to rely more on the support of extremely right -wing parties，And these political parties have stated their attitude，Gagosa ceasefire solution against the United States。For example, the leader of the right -wing religious party, Ben Gevil, has shouted Neitanahu，Ask him to enter the cabinet to replace Ganz。Although this is unlikely to be allowed，11827_11848。In re -obtaining the United States support and ensuring the support of domestic political parties，Neitanahu can only choose one in two。
The second day after the resignation of Gandz，The United Nations Security Council is in favor of 0 votes against 0 votes，Passed the "immediately、Comprehensive and thorough "suspension agreement，The ceasefire agreement in the United States will be implemented in three stages。The first stage is "Immediate Completion and Corporation"，The Israeli Army evacuated from the population densely populated area of the Gaza Strip; Hamas released women、Elderly and wounded seizures，Back to the remains of some victims; Israel released the detained Palestinians; in the second stage，Hamas will release the surplus hostage，As an exchange condition，The Army will withdraw all from the Gaza Strip; the third stage will open the large -scale reconstruction plan of the Gaza Strip。
Although Israel and Hamas said on the day of the voting，But two days later, both parties expressed dissatisfaction with the content of the resolution，Finally, the US President Biden, who even participated in the Seventh Kingdom Group (G7) meeting in Italy, believes，The possibility of this agreement is not high。Gandz, who has resigned, expressed support for the US agreement，But the w88 online casinoMinister of National Security of the Right Wing Gevel and the Financial Minister Smomrik said at the same time，If Neitanahu accepts this ceasefire proposal，They will resign and dissolve the government immediately。Neitanahu cannot ignore their shouts，Because of the nearly half of his 64 parliamentary seats in his hand, these extremely right -wing parties，On the question of whether to agree with the ceasefire agreement，Neitanahu has no right to decide。
Regardless of domestic or foreign，The Government of Neitaniah is facing the greater and huge test of life and death。abroad，High number of civilians in Gaza，Latin's offensive and lack of clear long -term planning，It is further deteriorating the relationship between Israel and Western countries; in China，There is no major progress in the hostage problem、Ultra -long -term service and blurred Gaza long -term strategy of hundreds of thousands of reserve，They are all damaging the image of Neitaniaho and lowering his support，Even the arrest order of the International Criminal Court once raised his support，But the above weaknesses make the long -term prospects of Neitanahu's governance increasingly slimming。
(Author is a scholar of international problems of the University of Foreign Economic and Trade)
Original link:https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KMf6iPkpNuq4YAo28WOhIA
