(Source: "China Petroleum Enterprise Magazine" 2024-10-30)
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“The concept and connotation of future energy security,Will change with the rise of non-fossil energy,Non-fossil energy will become the focus of global energy security,The focus of global energy cooperation will gradually shift to this field。”
In the long history,The context of global energy security is mainly depicted on the stage of fossil energy,Behind this is the uneven distribution of resources,Oil and natural gas safety is particularly critical。Future,A gorgeous transformation dominated by non-fossil energy is brewing,The global energy security map will be redrawn,The security role of fossil energy in the past,may gradually fade out of the stage in a few decades,Instead, there is concern about the security of key mineral resources needed for the development of non-fossil energy。
The scope of energy security connotation
National security is more important than Mount Tai,A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall。The distribution of global fossil energy resources is extremely unbalanced,A resource-rich country with excess energy,Consuming countries are difficult to satisfy,Balance can only be achieved through international trade。Once trade is blocked,Energy security issues arise。Specifically,The scope of energy security connotation mainly includes the following aspects:
(1) Energy supply security
People have no foresight,There must be immediate worries。Soul of Energy,Related to national security,In essence, it is a solid protection of energy materials。This protection,Like a treasure,Contained in energy assets、Infrastructure、Industrial chain and supply chain,Even within the profound foundation of trade channels。In times of changing circumstances,Can the country be like an artist with ease?,Material conditions for timely and skillful replacement of guards,Guard the country’s economic prosperity and social harmony,This is the issue of energy supply security。Building an energy supply security system,The purpose is to solve energy supply and demand,Maintain energy price stability,Nip problems in the bud,Prevent energy supply interruptions or serious shortages from causing major harm to economic and social development。
(2) Security of energy acquisition
Getting energy may not be important,The key is whether it can be obtained for a long time。Energy supply security,Mainly concerned about the source of energy,Such as self-produced or imported energy, etc.,If domestic production is insufficient and imports are required,So where to import from,Whether the other party provides you with energy, etc.。w88 sports bettingw88 casinoEnergy acquisition security,Mainly concerned about energy acquisition capabilities,There is an essential difference between it and energy supply security,The two cannot be confused with each other。Relative to energy supply security,Energy acquisition security is more important,Also a key element of energy security。If a country needs to import energy,And there is no problem in the import market,But this does not mean that this country can obtain energy,May also be subject to politics、Finance、Restricted by factors such as trade and channels, the required energy cannot be truly obtained,For example, subject to trade sanctions、International trade cannot be achieved due to financial sanctions or blockade of channels。
(3) Energy emergency safety
Nip problems in the bud,The key is emergency response。Any country,Everyone needs to establish an emergency response mechanism to deal with energy security threats,Including domestic mechanisms and international mechanisms,The purpose is to respond quickly when energy supply is interrupted or energy market prices fluctuate abnormally,To maintain the stability of energy supply,Ensure healthy and stable economic operation。For a country,Energy supply interruption、Once serious shortages or sudden price increases or price drops occur,It will inevitably cause direct damage to its economic development and social operation,The extent of the damage mainly depends on the country’s energy security capabilities,Especially depends on whether the country’s energy security emergency response system is sound。Of course,Due to the different national conditions of countries around the world,Different orientations of traditional energy policies,Energy resource endowment is not used,Different energy structures,Different stages of economic development,So in the face of energy shortage,The emergency policies and measures adopted are also inconsistent,But no country can lie down,You can ignore the energy shortage。
(4) Energy investment security
As long as there is investment,There must be risks。In the energy world,Investment security is like a golden key,Open the door to safety for investors。Overseas energy investment,Not just business behavior,It is also a political act,Not only the pursuit of economic benefits,Also pay attention to security risks,Need to find a balance between investment return and risk prevention and control。Energy security cannot be separated from energy investment security,Energy investing countries need to pass politics、Economic and diplomatic means,Establish close cooperative relationships with energy host countries,Build a harmonious and stable investment environment and business environment,Prevent foreign energy investment risks,Ensure returns on foreign energy investments。
The connotation of energy security continues to evolve
Human civilization is inseparable from energy,Energy is one of the important catalysts for the continuous progress of human civilization,Is a key element for the survival and development of human society,Humanity conquers and transforms the world through energy development,Continuously gain wealth through energy development and utilization,Create wealth,Use wealth。Currently,The concept and connotation of energy security are undergoing major changes。
(1) Decreasing attention on fossil energy security
Energy security concern,Always the global focus。So-called energy security,In essence, it is the "politicization" of energy,Leading the international energy market to deviate from the laws of market economy,Energy prices are distorted by political factors,Cannot truly reflect the market supply and demand relationship,Consequently causing damage or threat to the security and stability of the global energy industry chain and supply chain。Energy Trading,Like a criss-crossing political movement,Repeatedly deviating from the track of market economic laws。Energy Price,w88 sports bettingPainted w88 casino gameson the political palette,Often distorted and unable to truly reflect the market supply and demand relationship,Like a shadow,Quietly eroding the security and stability of the global energy industry chain and supply chain。In the past, the concept of energy security was simple and pure,However, as the global energy situation becomes increasingly complex,The connotation of energy security is as endless as a stream,Going far beyond energy supply security,To energy trade、Finance、Transportation、Various areas such as consumption and technology are gradually expanding。Different from traditional energy security which focuses on the stability and continuity of energy supply,Modern energy security focuses on broader areas,It is necessary to stabilize the source of energy supply,We must also ensure the smooth flow of energy trade,We must also ensure the stability of the energy consumption market,It is even more important to ensure the operational safety of energy infrastructure。
Long time,Fossil energy as an important strategic resource,Influences the operation of the global economy and strategic security。Oil and natural gas countries have the largest trade volume,Oil and gas security has always been the energy security issue that attracts the most attention around the world。In the past ten years,The United States relies on the shale revolution and economic transformation,Achieved the strategic goal of energy independence,Transformed from a major energy importing country into a major energy exporting country,This undoubtedly reduces the concern about the security of national energy supply。Since the mid to late 1990s,The EU implements energy diversification strategy,The demand for traditional fossil energy consumption is gradually slowing down,This undoubtedly reduces concerns about the security of fossil energy supply。Reduced focus on fossil energy,In stark contrast,The United States and the European Union regard combating global climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions as the primary goals of global energy governance,Seems to put fossil energy security on the back burner。However,In the foreseeable future,Fossil energy will still play the role of the main energy source on a global scale,As the global economy continues to grow,The world’s demand for fossil energy consumption will continue to increase。Therefore,Global fossil energy security issues will continue to exist,It will not be fundamentally solved in the short term。
(2) Increased attention to non-fossil energy security
In the past, the core of energy security was fossil energy security,To a certain extent,The so-called energy security is actually oil and gas security,The focus of countries around the world is how to ensure the security of their own oil and gas supply。However,Times are changing,The global energy development pattern is also changing,This is the objective reality。
In response to the severe challenge of global climate change,The pace of global energy transformation is unstoppable,Countries around the world have regarded the development of non-fossil energy as an inevitable choice for the future,This is an unavoidable fact。Concept and connotation of future energy security,Will change with the rise of non-fossil energy,Non-fossil energy will become the focus of global energy security,The focus of global energy cooperation will gradually shift to this field。Innovation、Technology transfer、Mineral resource exploration、Development、Processing、Investment、International cooperation in various aspects such as finance and trade,All will focus on the emerging field of non-fossil energy security。Maybe,In the near future,A global energy w88 casino games loginsecurity system dominated by non-fossil energy will gradually take shape,The w88 online live casinoimportance of fossil energy will gradually decrease in a few decades,The focus on the security of fossil energy will also shift to the security of mineral resources required for the development of non-fossil energy,This transformation will bring about fundamental changes in international energy cooperation。
(3) Energy security and climate game are intertwined
Today,Energy and Climate、The relationship between ecology and environment is becoming increasingly close。Energy production and consumption,It’s hard to escape the climate、Ecological and environmental factors,While obtaining energy resources,The need and response to climate change、Avoiding ecological imbalance and reducing environmental pollution are closely integrated。In response to global climate change and an increasingly complex international environment,The global energy landscape is undergoing profound changes,The accompanying energy security pattern is also accelerating its evolution,Energy security will be integrated with the global climate game。Energy and Climate,Safety and Gaming,This is one of the characteristics of the times。From a long-term trend perspective,To combat global climate change,Countries around the world will continue to promote energy transformation,Vigorously develop renewable energy,Increase the proportion of renewable energy energy consumption,Completely change the energy structure dominated by fossil energy,This can also be seen as one of the important ways to solve your own energy security problem。On the future long-term trend,Energy transformation is imperative,Countries around the world will pay more attention to the development of non-fossil energy,Attach great importance to the development of renewable energy,Gradually get rid of dependence on traditional fossil energy。In energy transition,The European Union performed most prominently,Continued to introduce policies and plans,And has set a clear goal to increase the proportion of renewable energy in the energy mix to 45% by 2030。Relative to the EU,In energy transition policy,There is a swing in the United States,There are huge policy differences between the two domestic parties,Contradictions on climate change and energy transition。On the Republican side,Long-term indifference to climate change issues,Inconsistent with the global mainstream direction,There have been many recurrences,For example, withdrawing from the "Kyoto Protocol", etc.。Especially after Trump came to power,The performance of the US government is puzzling to the world,Ignore world trends,More unique,Indifferent to the issue of global climate change、Conservative and negative attitude,Withdrew from the Paris Agreement, which was promoted by the international community during the Obama administration。However,After President Biden, representing the Democratic Party of the United States, took office,The U.S. government abandoned the policy orientation of the Trump administration,Returning to the trend of fighting global climate change,Re-emphasis on energy transformation,Actively promote the development of clean energy including renewable energy,Developing policies to advance global climate goals。In this context,Many countries in the world have successively formulated timetables to achieve carbon neutrality goals,Relevant energy transition policies have been introduced,For example, Japan、Developed countries such as South Korea are also very active in promoting energy transformation,New economies including India and Brazil have also announced renewable energy development goals。
Any industrial development is inseparable from policy w88 casinosupport,Under the strong promotion of energy transition policy,Global energy low-carbon w88 casino gamestransformation maintains strong growth momentum,In particular, the installed capacity of solar and wind power generation has maintained a steady growth trend。However,Although the road to energy transformation is tortuous,But it doesn’t mean the future is bleak。The energy game may be highly integrated with the climate game,For example, developed countries may restrict the energy development of developing countries in the name of addressing global climate change,Thus increasing the complexity of the global energy game。In my opinion,Nothing can be smooth sailing,Trouble is inevitable,Also normal。If there is a short-term or local setback in a specific period,Then deny the future trend,Obviously not scientific or logical,Of course it does not conform to the basic philosophical thinking of dialectics。Looking to the future,Global energy transformation is imperative,Hard to reverse。Predictable,The rolling tide of human society responding to climate change,It must be Hao Hao Tang Tang,The road to developing a low-carbon economy,The determination to achieve energy transformation is unchangeable,The pace of energy transformation will still move forward with determination,There is no possibility of turning around。To ensure global energy security,Countries around the world should resist the trend of politicizing energy issues,Oppose combining climate issues with politics,Oppose abuse of energy trade sanctions,Oppose the weaponization of energy,Solving energy shortages through cooperation,Using collaborative dialogue to jointly address the energy crisis。
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