(Source: "Finance" 2024-11-26)

Before Trump took office，Global companies are already worried that the new U.S. government will bring new burdens to them，Casts a shadow on the prospects of the world economy。The first boot of Trump’s tariffs dropped on November 25, local time: US President-elect Trump said，A 25% tariff will be imposed on all products from Mexico and Canada entering the United States。In addition，Trump also announced that he will impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods。

Trade issues are a core element of Trump’s presidential campaign。He said in his campaign speech，A tariff of up to 20% will be levied on imported products from the United States。Musk, the billionaire adviser to Trump, posted on social media X，The proposed tariffs “will be very effective” in deterring illegal immigration and drug trafficking。

According to estimates by the US investigation agency "Tax Foundation"，Due to additional tariffs，A burden of approximately $80 billion on the American people from 2018 to 2019，And because the Biden administration has inherited this policy，In the long run, it may lead to a decrease in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.2%。

Although Trump’s economic agenda mainly revolves around tax cuts and deregulation within the United States to promote economic growth；Implement tariffs abroad to reduce trade deficit and restore factory jobs，But Trump’s economic agenda is not a traditional economic issue。Trump prefers to use tariffs as a general excuse and negotiation weight to solve all problems he sees as problems，Whether it’s the fentanyl issue，Or immigration issues，Whether it is intellectual property issues or trade surplus，Whether it’s competitive currency devaluation or anything that makes Trump unhappy，We can all find a way out by threatening to impose tariffs。

Statistical data display，Mexico、China and Canada are the top three sources of imported goods to the United States。According to U.S. Department of Commerce，United States from Mexico from January to September、The import value of China and Canada is US$378.8 billion respectively、US$322.1 billion and US$309.3 billion，Ranked among the top three。From the beginning of this year to September，Imports from these three countries account for approximately 42% of total U.S. imports。

Trump posted on his social media Truth Social: "I w88 sports bettinghave discussed with China many times the issue of large amounts of drugs (especially fentanyl) flowing into the United States，But to no avail。The Chinese representative told me，They will impose the maximum penalty on any drug addict caught doing this，That is, the death penalty，Unfortunately，They never took action，Drugs are pouring into our country，Mainly through Mexico，Unprecedented extent。Before they stop，We will impose an additional 10% tariff on China，On top of any additional tariffs，For all the so many products they have coming into the United States of America。Thank you for your attention to this matter。”

Liu Pengyu, spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in the United States, responded in a statement to the media，“About the issue of tariffs imposed by the United States on China，China believes that the essence of Sino-US economic and trade cooperation is mutual benefit and win-win，There will be no winner in trade wars and tariff wars。" Liu Pengyu also said: "China has taken measures to combat drug trafficking activities，And inform the United States of the progress of U.S.-related anti-drug law enforcement operations，These prove that the statement that "China deliberately facilitates the flow of fentanyl into the United States" is groundless，Contrary to facts and reality。”

Currently，The United States has imposed additional Section 301 tariffs on China，Involving more than 10,000 items。May 14 this year，The United States releases the results of the four-year review of the additional Section 301 tariffs on China，Announced on the basis of original tariff，Planning to further increase the number of Chinese-made electric vehicles、Lithium battery、Photovoltaic cells、Key Minerals、Semiconductors and steel and aluminum、Port crane、Import tariffs on personal protective equipment and other products。The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative issued the final decision on September 13，and publishes a notice in the Federal Register regarding the revised information。Most of what was announced in May this year was adopted。In Trump’s second term, there will be further tax increases on Chinese goods。For example，Currently, a 25% tariff has been imposed on batteries produced in China，Will be increased to 35% later。

Trump, who will take office on January 20 next year, announced at the same time，The first wave of executive orders he will sign on his first day in office will include a 25% tariff on all Mexican and Canadian products entering the United States。He said，“Thousands of people are pouring into the United States through Mexico and Canada，Bring crime and drugs，Unprecedented to a degree。”“On drugs，Especially until it’s time for Fentanyl and all illegal aliens to w88 online casinostop this invasion of our country，This tariff will remain in effect。”

Tu Xinquan, Dean of the WTO (World Trade Organization) Research Institute at the University of International Business and Economics, told Caijing，Trump’s policies after taking office，Tax increases are certain，Because he is extremely enthusiastic about tariffs，Even calls himself “Tariff Man”。I believe Trump will renegotiate many relevant trade agreements。Take the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement as an example，The agreement is about to expire，There is a renegotiation clause，This is the foreshadowing Trump laid when he promoted the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement，Re-evaluate every once in a while。In view of the past two years in Mexico、Canada’s trade surplus with the United States has increased significantly，Trump’s assessment results are likely to be dissatisfied，He will definitely use this to put pressure on Mexico and Canada，Forcing it to make further concessions。The same is true for China。Although there is talk of imposing a 60% tariff on China，But Trump’s tariff increase will be in stages、Proceed in batches，Instead of implementing all aspects immediately，Because this will cause serious chaos in the United States’ own market。However，Tax increases are inevitable，Just do it in batches like last time。For example, the first batch of US$50 billion in tariffs targets Made in China 2025 related industries，Most of the consumer goods exported from China to the United States were not taxed in the end，It can be seen that the United States still has concerns，But the tax increase will not change。

Trump claimed during the campaign that he would impose tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imported goods，Implement 60% tariff on Chinese goods。Many U.S. trade experts told Caijing，After Trump takes office on January 20 next year, the most likely thing is to launch "Trump tariffs" through a presidential order。Both the American people and American companies have begun to focus on strategies to avoid tariffs，Multiple American business managers told Caijing，They are urgently increasing their inventory。Some Americans think the days of cheap goods may be gone，Also buying daily necessities in large quantities。

 

Tariffs will dampen consumer spending、Destroys business confidence，And put upward pressure on inflation and interest rates，Thus harming economic growth。Photo/Jin Yan

As Trump is about to take office as President of the United States，Global companies are busy preparing for the Sino-US trade war。Intensifying trend to build inventories ahead of higher tariffs，Sea transport volumes from Asia to the United States are expected to reach an all-time high in 2024。Goods movements increased for almost all major commodities，w88 online live casinoIn particular, clothing and furniture have experienced a large growth。Data display from the American research company Descartes Datamyne，Container traffic volume from Asia to the United States from January to October 2024 exceeds the record high in 2021。It is expected to set a new record for the whole year。

Trump made illegal immigration one of the main points of contention during the election，And made it clear that it will make maximum use of "tariff" means to solve this problem。

About 80% of Canada and Mexico’s exports are sold to the United States，Comprehensive tariff increases will hit the economies of these two countries。The United States, Mexico and Canada have signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)，Cancelled tariffs between each other。If Trump implements 25% additional tariffs，In effect, it is equivalent to suspending the USMCA agreement，This may trigger a strong reaction from Canada and Mexico。

The governors of Canadian provinces have asked Prime Minister Trudeau before US President-elect Trump takes office，Convene an emergency meeting，Discussing Canada-U.S. relations。President of the Federal Council of Canada (the Association of Premiers)、The Governor of Ontario sent a letter to Trudeau on the 25th，Provincial premiers want to be part of Team Canada，Participate in processing trade、Border Security、Energy、National defense and cross-border supply chain and other matters。Ford also said，Prefects want to know the federal government’s stance on the 2026 review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement。

Canada is the world’s fourth largest oil producer，Most of the country’s oil is shipped to the United States。Canada’s automobile industry is also closely connected with the neighboring United States。Economist from Business Development Bank of Canada，If Trump imposes tariffs on Canadian imports，Canada’s economic output and employment will decline significantly。

Trump has said，He wants to renegotiate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement based on provisions of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement that require review in 2026。Canadian representation，In a lobbying effort to protect the country’s $900 billion trade relationship with the United States，Canada is deploying a team of Canadian government ministers and provincial leaders，To lobby U.S. state and Washington lawmakers。

Trump also pointed out，Illegal drugs and illegal immigration issues in Mexico and Canada，If the two countries do not take measures，We should pay a "heavy price" for this。During the election，Trump has proposed imposing 200% tariffs on some Mexican goods，This is the first time a tax increase plan including Canada has been proposed。

November 20，A caravan of about 1,600 migrants w88 mobileleaves the southern city of Tapachula near the Mexico-Guatemala border，Most of these immigrants are from Venezuela and Central America。Immigration to the United States，They decided to head north and reach the border before Trump takes office in January。As Trump issues tariff threats，Smugglers in the region took to social media to urge migrants to rush to the border before the inauguration。Since Claudia Sheinbaum took office as President of Mexico last month，Six caravans carrying thousands of migrants have departed from southern Mexico so far。But in the past five years，Mexican authorities disbanded all caravans before they reached central Mexico。

 

Trump’s tariff “threat” will force businesses and governments to take action，Harm the free trade system and economic efficiency。Photo/Jin Yan

Mexican officials are already worried，Re-elected Trump may try to withdraw Mexico from the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement。Mexico’s ruling party Morena is very afraid of losing this trade agreement，President Claudia Sheinbaum said on November 22nd，The government has started a campaign，Require companies to replace Chinese parts with locally made parts。“We have a plan，Aimed to replace these imported products from China，And produce most of them in Mexico，Or produced by a Mexican company，Or mainly produced by North American companies。”

Attached original text link: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/W3MVcpJVxVqzj_sk1duOzA。