(Source: "Global Times"-Global Network July 9, 2025)

[Global Times-Global Network Report Reporters Fan Wei, Li Meng, Li Xundian] Based on multiple foreign media reports, on July 7, local time, US President Trump signed an executive order to extend the suspension period of the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" and postpone the implementation time from July 9 to August 1. At that time, tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% will be levied on imported products from 14 countries. Trump also published his letters to the leaders of 14 countries on the "Real Social Network" website he founded, and elaborated on the reasons for the tax. Among them, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung were the first recipients of Trump’s letter. As traditional allies of the United States, Japan and South Korea first appeared on the U.S. "tax list." Relevant experts said in an interview with a reporter from the Global Times on July 8 that the U.S. move shows that under the current U.S. government's tariff policy, alliance relations are giving way to "America First."

Want to show the attitude of "not showing mercy even to allies"

On July 7, local time, Trump first posted a screenshot of a letter to the leaders of Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos and Myanmar on his social media account regarding the new tariff rates. Later, he shared seven more letters, sent to the leaders of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Tunisia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Serbia, Cambodia and Thailand.

The content of these letters shows that the United States will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on goods exported to the United States from 14 countries including Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia. Previously, the "reciprocal tariff" rate imposed by the United States on Japanese goods was 24%, and that of South Korea was 25%. Now, both countries will face 25% tariffs. The document signed by Trump also mentioned that the United States "may" consider adjusting new tariff levels based on its relations with these countries.

“Japan and South Korea have become the first countries to announce additional tariffs by the United States this time, and are the only two traditional US ‘allies’ among the 14 countries. This may be to put pressure on other countries, and on the other hand, it is also to obtain more favorable arrangements in the tariff negotiations between Japan, the United States and Japan and South Korea. code to put pressure on Japan and South Korea." Da Zhigang, a researcher at the Institute of Northeast Asia at the Heilongjiang Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with a reporter from the Global Times on July 8 that through this method, the United States wants to show other countries that even its allies will not show mercy, thus creating an effect of "knocking on the mountain to shock the tiger."

But he also said that the United States has postponed the effective date from July 9 to August 1, which shows that the United States is leaving room for negotiations. In this way, the United States not only expresses its attitude but also leaves room for action. "Japan will hold a Senate election on July 20, and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has just come to power and has set the effective date of the tariffs on August 1. The United States also has the intention of bypassing this important period for the two countries and giving them a window to continue negotiations."

Wu Yingjie, a researcher at the Japan Research Center of the w88 casino, also holds the same view. In an interview with a reporter from the Global Times, he said that during his last term, Trump demanded a solution to the w88 deficit between the United States and Japan and South Korea. Although Japan and South Korea are two important allies of the United States, they are also countries with a large w88 surplus with the United States, especially in the automobile industry. Trump has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with Japan.

According to He Weiwen, executive director of the China Institute of International w88, the U.S. will start with Japan and South Korea when it restarts "reciprocal tariffs." This may be precisely because Japan and South Korea have not compromised before.

"The basic narrative of the United States' implementation of 'reciprocal tariffs' is to reduce w88 deficits. The United States' w88 deficits mainly come from 10 countries and regions. Among them, the United States only reached an agreement with Vietnam, and other negotiations were unsuccessful. This shows that the overall U.S. strategy has not achieved the expected results and is a failure." He Weiwen further analyzed that since Japan and South Korea have not yet compromised, the United States has taken further measures. He believes that this also shows that under the policies of the current US government, alliance relations are giving way to "America First".

“If high tariffs are implemented, the probability of Japan’s economy falling into recession next year will exceed 50%”

CNN reported on July 8 that after Trump released the first batch of letters, the three major stock indexes, the Dow Jones Index, S&P, and Nasdaq, all suffered their largest single-day declines in about three weeks. The share prices of major Japanese automakers Toyota, Nissan and Honda listed in the United States fell by 4%, 7.16% and 3.86% respectively.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba convened a cabinet working group on the morning of the 8th local time, saying that Japan deeply regrets the U.S. government’s plan to impose tariffs and announce an increase in tariff rates. He said Japan will continue to negotiate with the United States and seek to reach a bilateral w88 agreement that is beneficial to both countries.

The South Korean Ministry of Finance said in a statement that it would pay close attention to developments, but "warned" that if market fluctuations are "excessive," the South Korean government will "take immediate bold action in accordance with the contingency plan," but did not elaborate on what the action might include.

"Japan and South Korea may continue to negotiate with the United States, but the negotiation is unlikely to be successful." He Weiwen believes that unless Japan and South Korea make larger concessions, the United States may be slightly looser on tariffs, but small adjustments are of little significance. Therefore, Japan and South Korea may eventually take countermeasures to a certain extent.

"In addition to strengthening negotiations with the United States, the South Korean government does not seem to have better response measures. However, it is expected that the United States is unlikely to make concessions on the tariff issue. The two sides may only make progress or retreat on some detailed issues." Lu Chao, dean of the Institute of American and East Asian Studies at Liaoning University, expressed a similar view. He believes that adjustments in some details between the United States and South Korea will not help South Korea. The United States' increase in tariffs on South Korea has become a fact.

He further stated that the current so-called 25% reciprocal tariff increase by the United States will definitely have a very serious blow to the South Korean economy. Previously, the United States has increased taxes on steel, aluminum products, and auto parts from South Korea, and recently even proposed increasing taxes on car cargo ships arriving at the port. This series of tax increases has had a huge impact on the South Korean economy. Considering that South Korea's current economic situation is sluggish and it is in the stage of government change, these tariff measures are overwhelming for South Korea.

Considering that Japan and South Korea are deeply tied to the United States in political, military and economic aspects, and the two countries are highly dependent on the US market, industry insiders analyze that the restart of "reciprocal tariffs" will inevitably have a huge impact on Japan and South Korea. Nomura Research Institute's chief economic expert Nobuyoshi Kiuchi predicted in an article published on the agency's website on July 8. If the U.S. increases its reciprocal tariffs on Japan to 25%, Japan's overall GDP will be reduced by 0.85% based on the current scale. Once the U.S. formally imposes a 25% reciprocal tariff on Japan, the probability that Japan's economy will fall into a slow recession next year will be much more than 50%.

“The decline in the export scale of Japan and South Korea to the United States and the expansion of the w88 deficit are inevitable. If high tariffs are implemented, it will lead to a decline in the competitiveness of Japanese and Korean products in the US market. In particular, exports in industries such as automobiles and semiconductors will be affected, leading to slowdown in economic growth and unemployment risks in both countries. "Increase." Wu Yingjie believes that high tariffs will put huge downward pressure on the economies of Japan and South Korea. The GDP of Japan and South Korea will inevitably decline, economic growth expectations will be lowered, exports will be blocked, resulting in layoffs in related industrial chains, financial market fluctuations and investment confidence will be frustrated, and high tariffs will cause inflation, unemployment and a decline in the quality of life.

Wu Yingjie believes that in the face of US tariff pressure, Japan and South Korea are bound to strengthen regional economic cooperation, and China, Japan and South Korea have more motivation to strengthen economic and w88 cooperation.

The U.S.’s resumption of “reciprocal tariffs” has caused dissatisfaction in South Korea. Joo Jae-woo, a professor of international relations at Kyung Hee University in South Korea, said in an interview with a reporter from the Global Times on July 8 that South Korea’s w88 surplus with the United States is mainly due to the US-South Korea Free w88 Agreement (FTA), but this agreement was initiated by the United States in 2004 and revised in 2019 at the request of the United States. Now, the United States wants to impose retaliatory tariffs on South Korea on the grounds of surplus. The U.S. w88 deficit problem stems from its own industrial structure. The U.S. does not solve its own problems but continues to put pressure on South Korea. This is digging its own grave.

"Previously, the United States also questioned the cost-sharing issue of the U.S.-South Korea alliance, which shows that the United States is not reliable." Zhu Zaiyou said.

Where will the EU go?

Although the United States has restarted "reciprocal tariffs" starting with its traditional allies Japan and South Korea, the "fate" of its other traditional ally, the European Union, has also become the focus of the US media. CNN reports that although Trump has claimed that he has many w88 disputes with the EU and has repeatedly threatened to increase tariffs, this time the EU does not seem to have received his letter.

European Commission spokesman Olof Gill said on the 7th local time that the EU is still striving to reach a principled bilateral w88 agreement with the United States before July 9. The EU and the United States are still in contact.

"The EU has always been committed to reaching an agreement that is beneficial to EU businesses, consumers and the global economy. In addition, the EU is also ready to respond to all options, including counter-lists, but does not plan to start the process for the time being." Gill said that the EU has completed soliciting opinions from member states, businesses and stakeholders. At present, the EU still regards negotiations as its top priority, but is also preparing for other possible outcomes.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on the 7th that the United States will announce multiple w88 agreements in the next 48 hours. He said in an interview with the American Consumer News and Business Channel, "Many people changed their attitudes during the negotiations. So, my mailbox was filled with many new proposals and many new plans last night. So these days will be busy."

Public reports show that the United States currently imposes a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on the automotive sector, and a 10% base tariff on almost all other goods. Trump has previously threatened to impose 50% tariffs on EU goods if there is no breakthrough in US-EU w88 negotiations before July 9. In response, the EU decided to impose tariffs of up to 50% on imported US products totaling 21 billion euros. However, in order to allow time for w88 negotiations, this retaliatory measure will be postponed until July 14.

According to some EU insiders told Reuters on the 7th that Europe and the United States are close to reaching an agreement, and the EU may make "limited concessions" to the "baseline tariffs" imposed by the United States on aircraft and their parts, some medical devices and spirits products.

At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs held on July 8, a reporter asked that US President Trump stated on the 7th that he would impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imported products from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea starting from August 1. What is the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ comment on this? In this regard, Mao Ning said that on the issue of tariffs, China's position is consistent and very clear. There are no winners in tariff wars and w88 wars, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties.

Original link:

[Solution] Alliance relations are giving way to "America First". Where will Japan and South Korea on the US tax list go?