(Source: "Beijing News" 2026-01-06)
[Editor's Note] Oil price fluctuations are no longer enough to measure the depth of the impact of this incident. More importantly, on the new chessboard of the great power game, the definition of energy security is undergoing fundamental changes - who can control key minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earths required for new energy transformation, and who can truly control future energy dominance.
On January 3, the US military launched a large-scale military attack on Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro, and forcibly took him to the United States. U.S. President Trump publicly declared that day that the United States would "manage" Venezuela and announced that large U.S. oil companies would enter Venezuela and invest billions of dollars to "repair" oil infrastructure and create profits.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Venezuela has approximately 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, ranking first in the world. Affected by the U.S. blockade and other reasons, Venezuela's oil production capacity has been severely reduced. The current average daily crude oil production is around 1 million barrels, which is only 0.8% of global crude oil production.
Dong Xiucheng, Executive Dean of the China International Carbon Neutral Economic Research Institute, w88 casinoThe Beijing News Zero Carbon Research Institute analyzed that this incident is essentially an adjustment of the US global strategy, which is to return the center of gravity to the Western Hemisphere through strategic contraction, which reflects the policy resurgence of the "Monroe Doctrine". If it cannot control the energy powers around it, the United States will be unable to achieve strategic contraction and regional dominance.
Dong Xiuchengbelieves that taking control of Venezuela, which is rich in oil resources and has long been opposed to it, is a key step for the United States to consolidate its dominance in its "backyard" in the Americas. This move also means to deter Cuba and other Latin American countries.
Oil prices are temporarily "calm", will the global energy pattern change?
According to Xinhua News Agency on January 5, Reuters reported that due to the pressure of the US oil blockade and sanctions, Venezuela's oil exports have dropped to almost zero, and its domestic oil storage facilities are close to saturation. Venezuela's national oil company has begun to reduce crude oil production and initiated emergency measures to close some oil fields and well groups.
Data shows that the total amount of Venezuelan crude oil currently stranded at sea and unable to leave the port has exceeded 17 million barrels. According to preliminary statistics, Venezuela's daily crude oil production in November last year was about 1.1 million barrels, and its exports were about 950,000 barrels. Affected by U.S. measures, exports in December last year dropped to an average of about 500,000 barrels per day.
As early as December 16, 2025, U.S. President Trump posted on social media that the current Venezuelan government had been listed as a "foreign terrorist organization". On the same day, he ordered a "comprehensive and complete blockade" of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.
After the US military attacked Venezuela, the global oil market became relatively "calm", with international oil prices hovering around US$60 per barrel after only slight fluctuations. On January 5, NYMEX WTI crude oil futures fell 0.35% to US$57.12 per barrel.
In this regard, Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, said that the short-term impact of this incident on the global oil market is limited. Although Venezuela has huge oil reserves, its current production and exports are relatively small. The country's main oil exports go to China. In the past two years, China's imports of Venezuelan oil accounted for less than 1% of total imports. "This amount is replaceable." Coupled with the current loose supply in the global oil market, the incident itself is unlikely to cause violent fluctuations.
However, it cannot be ignored that geopolitical "black swan" events will psychologically disturb price expectations. In response to the sudden change in the situation in Venezuela,Dong Xiuchengbelieves that the impact of the incident on the global energy market is two-sided. "Short-term risk premiums have increased, and the long-term pattern depends on the degree of control of the United States."
Dong Xiuchengsaid that in the short term, the event may trigger risk aversion and supply concerns in the market, leading to an increase in risk premiums. Although Venezuela has been subject to years of sanctions and limited actual exports, its oil still flows into global markets through different channels. Under the current status, traders will generally avoid related risks, resulting in a supply gap in the market, thereby pushing up oil prices, which is mainly reflected in the risk premium.
The long-term impact has a completely different path.Dong Xiuchengbelieves that from a long-term perspective, the substantial impact on the global energy pattern depends entirely on the degree to which the United States controls the situation in Venezuela and its subsequent policies. If U.S. hegemony quickly takes control of the political situation and pushes its oil companies to invest and restore the country's production and export infrastructure, Venezuela's huge resource potential may be activated, which will instead enhance global oil and gas supply capabilities and exert a suppressive effect on international oil prices. The capital market is forward-looking, and such expectations may have an impact at the early stage when the situation becomes clear.
Lin Boqiang also said that the real impact lies in the medium and long term, but the prospects are highly uncertain. Even if the United States intends to intervene, it still faces practical challenges such as infrastructure reconstruction and the stability of the social environment. "Assuming there is a stable environment in a few years, major international oil companies will enter and promote a significant increase in production, which will put downward pressure on oil prices." However, the situation may also become chaotic. There is a risk of civil unrest or even civil war. Whether it ultimately leads to a stable increase in production or continued chaos will be the key to determining the long-term impact.
"Secure the energy rice bowl", the focus of energy security shifts to "critical minerals"
When answering questions at a regular press conference on January 5, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian said that China respects Venezuela’s sovereignty and independence and believes that the Venezuelan government will properly handle internal affairs in accordance with the country’s constitution and laws. China-Venezuela cooperation is cooperation between sovereign states and is protected by international law and the laws of both countries. No matter how the political situation in Venezuela changes, China's willingness to deepen practical cooperation between the two countries in various fields will not change, and China's legitimate interests in Venezuela will also be protected in accordance with the law.
“Since the situation is extremely uncertain and even risks triggering civil strife, the more urgent task now is to respond. China has a lot of investments and assets in Venezuela, so it must act proactively through multilateral relations and abide by international rules to reduce its own losses.” Lin Boqiang said
In the long term, China’s energy security focus is undergoing a profound change. As the world's largest crude oil importer, my country's dependence on foreign oil has remained at a high level of over 70% for a long time. In order to ensure energy security, the national strategy clearly calls for "securing energy jobs", "stabilizing the annual output of 200 million tons of crude oil" and diversifying imports. Driven by the energy transformation, my country's crude oil imports will be 553 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%.
Lin Boqiang said that with domestic crude oil production stabilizing above 200 million tons and new energy vehicles rapidly replacing it, China's dependence on foreign crude oil has entered a peak plateau period and is expected to steadily decrease in the future.
my country continues to promote the diversification of crude oil import sources and transportation channels. At present, import sources have expanded from relying on the Middle East to Russia, Central Asia, Africa and other places; the channel has also formed a pattern of simultaneous development of maritime and China-Russia, Central Asia, China-Myanmar and other land pipelines.
Dong XiuchengAnalysis shows that the current tense geopolitical situation will make major economies more aware of the risks of over-reliance on traditional fossil energy, thereby serving as a "catalyst" or "incentive" to strengthen their determination to accelerate the development of renewable energy and ensure energy independence. However, the fundamental driver of the energy transition is combating climate change, not geopolitics. Regardless of whether there are local conflicts, the general trend of the world's major economies towards a low-carbon future will not be reversed. Overall, the importance of fossil energy and its impact on geopolitics is far less decisive than it was a few decades ago.
Dong Xiuchengsaid that a more forward-looking judgment is that as China's oil consumption reaches its peak and its dependence on foreign countries gradually decreases, the strategic focus of national energy security will shift from traditional "oil and gas security" to the security of "key minerals" (lithium, cobalt, rare earths, etc.) required for the new energy industry chain. The United States also focuses on such minerals in Canada, Greenland and other places. Therefore, the long-term strategic value of Latin America (such as Brazil, Chile, and Peru) as important reserves of "key minerals" may be more worthy of in-depth consideration than the oil and gas impact of the incident itself.
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