(Source: China Energy Network 2026-01-09)
In the early morning of January 3, local time, the United States launched an air strike on Venezuela. Subsequently, US President Trump publicly declared that the United States would "take charge of Venezuelan affairs" and let its large oil companies dominate the future operation of the country's oil resources.
The Venezuelan government pointed out that the fundamental purpose of the US action is to seize its huge oil and mineral resources.
Dong Xiucheng, Executive Dean of the China International Carbon Neutral Economic Research Institute, w88 casinosaid that the US attack on Venezuela can be said to be a major energy geopolitical event. In the long term, the global oil market structure may undergo major changes.
The international oil market responded calmly
According to statistics from the global statistical database Statista, Venezuela has more than 300 billion barrels of oil reserves, accounting for 17% of the global total, exceeding Saudi Arabia and several times the reserves of the United States. However, due to long-term mismanagement, insufficient investment and international sanctions, its oil industry has suffered a severe decline, and daily production has shrunk to less than 1 million barrels, less than 1% of global supply.
“Before 2007, Venezuela was an investment hotspot for international companies. However, due to the country’s turbulent situation, changes in oil fiscal and taxation policies, international sanctions and high resource development costs, international companies have withdrawn one after another.” said Yan Jiantao, an expert from the China Price Association and chief economist of Jiecheng Energy Holdings Co., Ltd.
The U.S. raid and subsequent comprehensive oil embargo dealt the "final blow" to this already fragile system. Monitoring data from the independent agency TankerTrackers.com shows that loading operations at the country's main oil ports have come to a standstill, and exports have actually "returned to zero."
However, it is this huge imbalance between production and reserves that determines the limitations of Venezuela's short-term market influence. Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management, pointed out that the current global oil market is in a period of oversupply and relatively weak demand, and the market has already factored conflict risks into prices in advance. Therefore, even if the country's daily export volume disappears instantly, it will not be an irreparable gap in the global total. This directly led to expectations for only a weak increase in oil prices after the incident.
MST Marquee energy analyst Saul Kavonik predicts that Venezuelan oil exports could surge to 3 million barrels per day in the medium term if normalcy returns. Former U.S. energy official David Godwin also pointed out that Venezuela “has no other choice but to increase production.” U.S. President Trump’s statement that U.S. companies will invest in the energy sector of the Commission for Reconstruction and Reconstruction has strengthened this expectation. The current market calm is therefore a complex w88-off between limited short-term shocks and the potential for flooding in the long-term.
Heavy crude oil exports restricted
The market’s “flat” response confirms that Venezuela has transformed from a significant oil producer to a “symbolic variable” on the edge of the global supply map. Yan Jiantao said that in the context of the current structural oversupply of global crude oil and the diversified import layout of major consuming countries, its long-term production constraints will have a small direct impact on the total global supply and demand.
Dong Xiuchengbelieves that as an important supplier of heavy crude oil to the world, Venezuela’s “significant reduction” in exports will directly impact the balance of refinery raw materials. Refiners that are highly dependent on their heavy crude oil will face feedstock shortages, which may lead to production cuts or be forced to find alternative oil types, which will push up the price of related alternative resources and increase refining costs. "Rising shipping risks in the Caribbean will lead to higher transportation costs, and the combination of these factors could drive sharp but short-lived fluctuations in oil prices."
“This major geopolitical event will force governments and companies around the world to pay close attention to changes in the geopolitical situation and prepare for responses in advance.”Dong XiuchengAccording to analysis.
Some analysts pointed out that in the future, the priority of energy security will be placed at an unprecedented height, and the global supply chain based on economic efficiency will accelerate the evolution to a "camp-based" supply chain based on geopolitical alliances.
"U.S. companies may rely on their strong financial and technological strength to return to the region after the regime change in Venezuela to obtain the low-cost Orinoco heavy oil belt mining rights. This will cause the focus of crude oil exports to shift to the United States. On the other hand, for traditional buyers, they will have to seek alternative sources of crude oil, such as heavy crude oil in West Africa and the Middle East. This will push up the prices of these alternative resources and change the flow of global crude oil w88."Dong XiuchengPoint out further.
But restoring production capacity in Venezuela is not easy.Dong Xiuchengpointed out that Venezuela’s crude oil facilities are seriously aging, the economy is in poor condition, and it lacks sufficient funds. "To restore production capacity to its historical peak, approximately US$58 billion in investment will be required."
In the future, the pace and scale of Venezuela's oil production recovery may be dominated by the decisions of U.S. companies, which creates uncertainty for the long-term development of the country's industry. This deep binding has also become a microscopic manifestation of the "campification" of the supply chain.
Huge production capacity may become a key variable in market regulation
From a longer-term perspective, this incident is a radical attempt by the United States to reshape the global energy pricing and governance system, and its impact goes far beyond Venezuela.
“The United States’ deep strategic intention is to control the key levers of the global oil market and weaken the influence of the ‘OPEC+’ alliance.”Dong Xiuchengstated that once Venezuela’s potentially huge production capacity is brought into the orbit of U.S. influence, it will become a key variable in the adjustable market outside of “OPEC+”, thus distracting or even disintegrating the alliance’s collaborative capabilities. This move is also seen as a key step for the United States to strengthen its petrodollar hegemony.
Dong Xiuchengbelieves that in the face of increasingly severe geopolitical risks, countries must speed up the process of energy structure adjustment and diversification. Internally, we should increase the research and development and application of clean energy, and externally, we need to build diversified energy supply chain partnerships and strengthen strategic oil reserves. "This process may lead to a deeper differentiation of the global energy system, forming a 'parallel system' in which different technological routes, w88 settlement methods and security alliances coexist."
The pricing logic of the international energy market has been fundamentally changed. The extreme unpredictability of geopolitics will become the "new normal" that dominates oil prices. In the short term, market sentiment will swing wildly between excess fundamentals and emergencies risk premiums. In the long term, the formation of a global energy system with less mutual trust, more fragile rules, and more prominent security dilemmas is accelerating.
For China, the amount of crude oil imported from Venezuela is relatively limited, and the current supply of resources in Asia is relatively abundant. Domestic independent refineries have certain room for adjustment in the selection of oil types. Short-term changes in supply can be dealt with through multiple channels. "As cross-border w88 becomes increasingly complex and volatile, all parties need to work together to manage risks and build supply chain resilience in a more flexible and robust manner," said an unnamed oil and gas expert.
“This is not a fluctuation in oil prices of a few dollars, but it has opened up an era of energy gaming with higher risks, higher costs, and higher uncertainty for the world. Every country has to re-evaluate its cards in this new, increasingly zero-sum game and plan an independent way of survival.” The oil and gas expert said.
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