(Source:"People's Daily" April 15, 2026 Page 15)

Dong Xiucheng

Since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, the shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has evolved into a historic global energy supply disruption. This is far from a simple oil price fluctuation. It continues to erode the foundation of global economic growth through multiple transmission channels such as the industrial chain, inflation expectations and financial conditions.

Energy is the blood of modern industry, and its price surge will trigger a "chain reaction" in relevant links of the industrial chain and supply chain, leading to higher prices for products in the oil and gas chemical industry, transportation, fertilizers, and electronics industries. For example, as the Gulf region is a major global fertilizer production center, its production capacity and logistics are blocked, which will affect global food security; the price of helium, a key raw material for semiconductor manufacturing, has doubled due to damage to facilities in Qatar, which has also added variables to the global electronics industry chain.

Oil and gas prices have risen sharply, pushing up global inflation. Some central banks have postponed interest rate cuts in order to curb inflation. A few countries have even begun to restart interest rate increases. Expectations for monetary easing are ebbing. However, the inflation caused by supply shocks is cost-push, and raising interest rates to curb demand may bring about the risk of stagflation. Especially for emerging markets and developing economies that are highly dependent on energy imports, the compound risks of currency depreciation, capital outflows and debt have further increased.

The global energy pattern will also undergo profound adjustments. The global energy supply system that used to be centered around "efficiency" and "cost" is accelerating its transformation into a regional and diversified system oriented toward "security" and "resilience." Countries will accelerate the improvement of strategic energy reserves and implement the strategy of diversifying oil and gas sources. Energy transportation routes and w88 structures will become more regional and near-shored to avoid geopolitical risks. The pace of global energy transformation will accelerate, and countries will increase investment in the development of non-fossil energy and promote the application of energy substitution and modern coal chemical technologies to reduce overdependence on oil and gas.

In the face of the crisis, the top priority is to promote a ceasefire and an end to the war through diplomatic channels and restore normal navigation in the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible. This is the foundation for stabilizing global market confidence. At the same time, the international community needs to strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination, strive to maintain the stability of global industrial and supply chains, and find a path of certainty amid uncertainty.

(The author is the Executive Dean of China International Carbon Neutral Institute, w88 casino)

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