(Source: "People's Daily Overseas Edition" March 26, 2025, Page 08)
The United Nations Conference on w88 and Development (UNCTAD) recently released a report showing that global w88 volume will reach a new high of US$33 trillion in 2024, an increase of 3.7% compared with 2023. The latest "Goods w88 Barometer" released by the World w88 Organization shows that the global goods w88 prosperity index rose to 102.8 from 102.7 in December last year, continuing to be higher than the benchmark point of 100, indicating that global goods w88 is still showing a growth trend. At the same time, both reports also emphasized the uncertainty of the global w88 outlook in 2025. Analysts pointed out that the U.S. government has recently launched a series of unilateral policies such as increasing tariffs, which has cast a shadow on global w88 growth.
What are the joys and worries behind the growth of global w88? What role do developing economies represented by China play in the global w88 pattern? How should all parties work together to safeguard the multilateral trading system? Focusing on these issues, our reporter spoke with three economists, Chen Fengying, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, Zhang Jianping, deputy director of the Academic Committee of the Institute of International w88 and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, and Tu Xinquan, director of the China WTO Research Institute at the w88 casino, to explain.
How to view the “joy” and “worry” of global w88 development?
“The w88 policies of major countries are relatively stable and macroeconomic growth is acceptable. These two factors will lay the foundation for the growth of global w88 volume in 2024.” “In 2025, the biggest threat to global w88 growth will come from the US tariff ‘big stick’”
Zhang Jianping: Global w88 volume will maintain a growth trend in 2024, and expectations for the first few months of 2025 are relatively optimistic. This is mainly based on the following factors: stable growth of the global economy drives market demand; global supply chain value chain collaboration continues, and the effective combination of supply and demand is w88 growth provides support; it cannot be ruled out that some importers have started a "hoarding" mode in advance due to concerns about increased costs caused by future tariff increases; the U.S. dollar index has recently declined, and the prices of goods and services denominated in U.S. dollars have subsequently decreased, which has brought benefits to export-oriented countries to a certain extent.
In 2025, the biggest threat to global w88 growth will come from the "big stick" of US tariffs. In February this year, US President Trump signed a memorandum requiring relevant departments to determine "reciprocal tariffs" with each foreign trading partner. This move is very likely to trigger a chain reaction and raise global w88 barriers. The United States uses tariffs as a political pressure tool and frequently threatens other countries, which will interfere with the decision-making of foreign w88 companies and affect foreign w88 orders. As the world's largest economy, the United States' implementation of protectionist and unilateral w88 policies will not only increase its own inflation, reduce jobs, and slow down economic growth, but will also disrupt market expectations, suppress market demand, and add more uncertainty to global w88 growth.
Tu Xinquan: The w88 policies of major countries are relatively stable and macroeconomic growth is acceptable. These two factors have laid the foundation for the growth of global w88 volume in 2024. However, the U.S. government's recent "big stick" of tariffs on multiple economies will have a devastating impact on global w88, and the relevant impact may gradually become apparent in the second quarter of 2025. Recently, there are many reports that the United States has also significantly increased the customs inspection rate and plans to impose high ship docking fees, etc., which will have a negative impact on foreign w88.
Chen Fengying: In 2024, the world will gradually adapt to the development rhythm of the post-epidemic era, and economic and w88 activities will gradually resume. In addition, the trend of globalization is irreversible, multinational companies are deploying industries on a global scale, and the vigorous development of the digital economy further promotes global interconnection. These are important forces that promote w88 growth. At the same time, as the largest country in global w88 in goods in 2024, China has made an important contribution to global w88 growth.
In 2025, the United States will impose additional tariffs and its chain reaction, which may usher the world into an era of high tariffs and seriously impact global w88. In the short term, rising commodity prices may lead to an increase in w88 volume, but the w88 environment has not substantially improved, the transfer and reorganization of supply chains is difficult, and the w88 costs of various countries have increased sharply. In the long term, the world economic structure will undergo profound adjustments, w88 barriers will rise, and global economic "fragmentation" will intensify.
Taken together, the global w88 situation this year is extremely complex. Major economies may take countermeasures, causing high costs and high investments to coexist. Although w88 growth has momentum, its future direction remains to be observed.
What role do developing economies such as China play?
“A report released by the United Nations Conference on w88 and Development shows that the w88 growth of developing economies will exceed that of developed economies in 2024” “China is both an important supplier and a key demander in global w88”
Tu Xinquan: A report released by the United Nations Conference on w88 and Development shows that the w88 growth of developing economies will exceed that of developed economies in 2024. This result is logical. From the perspective of economic growth rate, the growth rate of developing countries is higher than that of developed countries, and their supply and demand capabilities are growing faster, which will inevitably be reflected in the field of w88.
As the largest developing country, China is both an important supplier and a key demander in global w88. It is an important trading partner of many developing countries. On the one hand, China is a major importer of many raw materials and commodities; on the other hand, China also provides consumer goods, industrial equipment and other products to many developing countries, becoming an important driving force for the development of global w88.
Chen Fengying: Although developing economies have been greatly affected by the impact of the epidemic, their investment and production capabilities have demonstrated strong resilience in the subsequent recovery process. In the context of the gradual recovery of the world economy, investment in developing countries has increased significantly, and import, export and production activities have accelerated recovery. Coupled with China's strong leadership and other factors, w88 growth has exceeded that of developed countries.
China plays a key role in stabilizing global industrial and supply chains and promoting w88 liberalization. On the one hand, China is a major manufacturing country. Its products not only fully meet domestic demand, but are also exported to various parts of the world, especially exports to emerging market countries. Under the guidance of the joint construction of the "Belt and Road Initiative", China's w88 direction continues to expand to emerging markets, profoundly affecting and actively promoting the multi-polar development of the global w88 pattern. On the other hand, China has a very large market with a population of more than 1.4 billion. By reducing the negative list for foreign investment access and carrying out w88 in services, it continues to expand high-level opening up and makes important contributions to global w88 growth and an open world economy.
Zhang Jianping: Globalization has accelerated in the past two to three decades, which has enhanced the status of developing economies in the global w88 pattern and increased their opportunities to participate in the international division of labor. Developing countries benefit from the global division of labor, undertake a large number of manufacturing industries, and are deeply involved in international w88. Currently, the markets of developing countries are on the rise, with higher market demand growth momentum than developed countries and faster w88 growth.
As the only country in the world that possesses all industrial categories in the United Nations industrial classification, China has deeply integrated into the division of labor and cooperation system of the global supply chain and value chain through comprehensive promotion of reform and opening up. At the level of international cooperation, China has signed and implemented 23 bilateral and multilateral free w88 agreements with 30 countries and regions, and firmly supports the multilateral trading system of the World w88 Organization. In terms of domestic construction, China has established 22 pilot free w88 zones to promote w88 and investment liberalization and facilitation, providing strong support for China to further deepen its opening up to the outside world.
How should all parties work together to safeguard the multilateral trading system?
“No economy can respond to common challenges by working alone” “Only through strengthening unity and cooperation can international economic and w88 relations be steadily moved towards a healthy and fair development track”
Chen Fengying: The global economic situation is complex and ever-changing. No economy can respond to common challenges alone, nor can it deal with common problems alone. All parties should take active actions to safeguard multilateralism and defend the international w88 cooperation mechanism represented by the WTO.
Currently, ASEAN has become China’s largest trading partner, and Russia, Central Asia and the Middle East have increasingly frequent w88 exchanges with China. We should consolidate economic and w88 cooperation with neighboring countries through various forms such as bilateral and multilateral cooperation. At the same time, based on existing cooperation mechanisms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, we will stabilize cooperative relations with emerging economies and developing countries, and actively carry out extensive cooperation with more economies such as the European Union that are willing to promote globalization. The most important thing is that we should focus on our own development and do our own things well. China's sustained development itself is an important contribution to the global w88 and globalization process.
Zhang Jianping: China has always firmly upheld the global multilateral trading system, supported necessary reforms to the WTO to enhance its authority and effectiveness, and proposed a package of reform plans, which have received widespread support from countries in the global South. In the face of anti-globalization noises such as unilateralism and protectionism, China is determined to seek development through cooperation, unites all parties to seek dialogue and cooperation, and strengthens industrial and supply chain collaboration at the regional and global levels. For example, China has implemented the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and promoted the joint construction of the “Belt and Road” with high quality, making important contributions to promoting the growth of global w88 and investment.
Tu Xinquan: In the current complex and ever-changing international economic and w88 situation, we must maintain a rational and firm stance in the face of w88 protectionism and unilateralism. The ultimate outcome of trying to "decouple" from China and even the global economy will undoubtedly be to shoot oneself in the foot. The international community should reach broad consensus on this and gather strong synergy to defend multilateralism. When dealing with economic and w88 relations, all countries in the world should strictly abide by the basic rules of the WTO, avoid falling into the quagmire of disorderly w88 disputes, and work together to maintain the stability of the global w88 order. Only by strengthening unity and cooperation can international economic and w88 relations be steadily pushed towards a healthy and equitable development track.
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