(Source: "CCTV Financial Review" 2025-05-29)
Recently, severe congestion has occurred in many European ports, and waiting times have increased significantly. What is the cause of the "ship jam"? What are the new changes in the global shipping market? What new impacts will the U.S.’s wavering tariff increases have on the global industrial and supply chains? The U.S. Court of International w88 ruled that the package of additional tariffs announced by the Trump administration on April 2 should be suspended from taking effect. On May 29, 2025, the "CCTV Financial Review" column of the CCTV-2 financial channel invited Professor Yang Hangjun, deputy dean of the w88 casino of International Economics and w88 of w88 casino, to give an interpretation.
Professor Yang Hangjun said that the recent large-scale congestion in European ports is the result of multiple pressures. First, repeated changes in U.S. tariff policies have caused imbalances in shipping supply and demand. The Trump administration threatened to impose high punitive tariffs of 50% on EU goods (later postponed to July 9), forcing European companies to panic ship shipments in advance or urgently adjust logistics routes, triggering non-seasonal demand peaks and disrupting the original supply chain rhythm. Secondly, European ports face systemic problems in their own operations. The labor shortage problem in European ports has always been prominent. Coupled with the nationwide strike in Belgium on May 20, the Port of Antwerp almost came to a standstill, seriously weakening the efficiency of terminal operations. Inland port channels are also severely blocked, and the water level of the Rhine River, a key inland river transportation artery, continues to be low, which greatly limits the capacity of barges in the ports of Antwerp and Rotterdam, making it impossible for goods to be transported away from the terminals in time. Finally, geopolitical conflicts create a superimposed effect of external shocks. The Red Sea crisis continues. Attacks by the Houthi armed forces have forced a large number of ships to bypass the Cape of Good Hope in Africa. The average voyage length has been extended by 14 days and ship turnover efficiency has dropped significantly. The recent widespread congestion at European ports and repeated changes in US tariff policies have caused chaos in the global shipping industry and soared freight rates. Shipping companies such as Mediterranean Shipping Company have imposed peak season surcharges on Asian cargo since June. The spot freight rate on the US East route has increased by 12% on a weekly basis, and some Asia-Europe routes have increased by as much as 73%. The waiting time for ships to berth is extended, for example, it can take up to 50 hours at the Port of Hamburg, and the daily demurrage exceeds US$30,000, which is ultimately borne by the cargo owner. The global shipping industry has fallen into passive restructuring and capacity allocation is in chaos: liner companies urgently relocated Asia-Europe and South America route capacity to the trans-Pacific direction, resulting in an increase in empty flights on non-trunk routes. Due to policies, companies repeatedly gave up signing annual shipping contracts and instead relied on the spot market, resulting in unpredictable transportation costs.
Professor Yang Hangjun said that the extension of the US tariff policy seems to have eased, but port congestion has intensified, which just confirms the market’s deep anxiety about the w88 prospects. Pressing the pause button on U.S. tariff policy does not mean the risk is eliminated. Trump postponed the threat to impose tariffs on the EU from June 1 to July 9, triggering a rush for European companies to rush to deliver goods to the United States before the beginning of July to avoid high 50% tariffs, especially for products such as automobiles and machinery that are the EU's main exports to the United States. Trump's policies have repeatedly changed, and companies cannot predict the direction after July and can only act according to "worst-case plans." The current rush to ship goods is driving up freight rates, but if the high tariffs imposed by the United States on the EU come into effect after July 9, the EU's freight volume exported to the United States will drop significantly, and freight rates may plummet. Shippers are forced to choose between "paying more freight now" and "paying more tariffs in the future."
Professor Yang Hangjun said that on May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International w88 ruled that the "Liberation Day Tariffs" implemented by the Trump administration in accordance with the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) (including the global 10% benchmark tariff and fentanyl tariffs targeting China, Mexico and other countries) were ultra vires and unconstitutional, and ordered a suspension of implementation within 10 days. After the ruling was announced, stock markets around the world rose, reflecting the market's optimistic expectations for the easing of w88 frictions. The suspension of tariffs will effectively reduce corporate production costs and partially relieve the pressure on the global supply chain. The long-term uncertainty has not been eliminated, and there are great variables in the legal process. The Trump administration has immediately appealed to the Federal Circuit Court, and may eventually appeal to the Supreme Court. If the application for a "suspended execution" is successful during the appeal, the tariffs can continue to be imposed. The ruling only negates the tariffs authorized by IEEPA and does not affect tariffs based on other legal basis. For example, national security tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles are still in effect. In addition, the core w88 differences between China and the United States and Europe and the United States have not been resolved, and uncertainty has become the new normal.
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