(Source: "Global Times"-Global Network November 20, 2025)
Editor's note: The chain reaction triggered by Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae's fallacy about Taiwan is still continuing: On November 19, the two major stock indexes of the Tokyo stock market continued to decline, and Shiseido and other Chinese market-related stocks rebounded weakly; Japanese tourism and retail operators are worried about the possible coming "cold wave". Some analysts believe that China’s countermeasures may plunge the already faltering Japanese economy into recession. Scholars and media from many countries, including Japan, believe that Gao Shi’s remarks not only scorch the foundation of Sino-Japanese relations, but also pose multiple threats to regional peace and development. In the next article of the series of in-depth cognition reports on "The Fallacies and Dangers of High Market Bully", we will provide an in-depth analysis of how high market bully can cause harm to oneself and harm others but not oneself.
Japanese Senator Yamazoe Taku posted on social media He wrote: "Prime Minister Takaichi's reply has led to the deterioration of Japan-China relations. Some government sources said that we are now at a crossroads. The longer the situation is delayed, the more serious the problem may be, and the deadlock must be broken as soon as possible. To achieve this, the only way to do this is to withdraw the relevant reply. Prime Minister Takaichi should recognize the significant impact of his hasty reply."
“Japan’s economy will take a hit”
"China is Japan's largest trading partner, but Takaichi seems not to have thought about what worsening relations with China means for Japan's national interests. Her remarks give the impression that she is completely unaware that Japan's economy will suffer if China takes countermeasures against Japan. I think she needs to She must correct her statement as soon as possible. If she still refuses to retract the relevant remarks, it will be disturbing. After all, when the prime minister thinks and speaks in this way, it is the people who suffer." Hiroshi Shiratori, a political science professor at Hosei University, expressed concern about Takaichi's remarks in an exclusive interview with a reporter from the Global Times.
His fears are coming true. According to reports from British Reuters and other media on November 19, a few days after the Ministry of Culture and Tourism of China reminded Chinese tourists to avoid traveling to Japan in the near future, Kuaiyang Tourism, a Tokyo company specializing in bus business for tourists visiting Japan, revealed that about 50 orders have been cancelled, with losses amounting to approximately 20 to 30 million yen (100 yen is approximately 4.6 yuan).
Japanese hotels and retailers also expressed concern about the possible impact of the high-market comments. Masataka Abe, president of Royal Holdings Co., Ltd., the operator of the Richmond hotel chain, told Japan's Asahi Shimbun that if the current situation continues, the number of tourists traveling to Japan during the Chinese Spring Festival in February next year may be affected. Half of the company's overseas customers are Chinese. Daimaru Matsuzakaya Department Store said it was paying close attention to developments as Chinese customers accounted for 60% of its duty-free store sales.
"Asahi Shimbun" stated that data from the Japan Tourism Bureau shows that overseas tourists will spend 8.1 trillion yen in Japan in 2024, and Chinese tourists will account for 21% of this, with the largest proportion by nationality. According to Reuters, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council, tourism accounts for approximately 7% of Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) and has been the main driver of Japan's economic growth in recent years. China's measures could deal a considerable blow to Japan's economy.
In addition to tourism and retail, Japan also relies heavily on China for the supply of key minerals. In addition, "Deutsche Welle" noted that Chinese students account for the highest proportion of international students in Japan. A staff member of the New Channel Qiancheng Study Abroad in Japan Project Department told the Global Times reporter that Gao Shi’s erroneous remarks will inevitably affect the confidence of students studying in Japan. Among customers who are willing to go to Japan and are currently consulting on studying abroad, the vast majority are now taking a wait-and-see attitude.
Investors’ concerns about the deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations continue to affect the Japanese stock market. On November 19, the Nikkei stock index fell 165.28 points to close at 48537.70 points; the Topix stock index fell 5.52 points to close at 3245.58 points. Wu Yingjie, a researcher at the Japan Studies Center of the w88 casino, said in an interview with a reporter from the Global Times that if diplomatic relations between China and Japan continue to be tense, the risks faced by China's direct investment in Japan, film and television cultural exchanges between the two countries, and corporate business will increase, and the valuation of Japanese multinational companies in the capital market will be affected. If the situation persists, Japan's GDP may be dragged down.
"The dispute between Japan and China may be a GDP killer that destroys Gao Shi." "Asia Times" stated that the measures taken by China may cause Japan's economy to fall into recession, and Gao Shi's words and deeds may make his prime minister's term less long. The article stated that Japan’s economy shrank by 1.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, and its government debt-to-GDP ratio has reached as high as 260%. Nomura Research Institute estimates that China’s current measures could cost Japan more than $14 billion a year.
“Japan’s peripheral diplomacy is in an isolation dilemma”
Takaichi recently publicly declared in Congress that "something happened in Taiwan" may constitute an "existential crisis situation" in which Japan can exercise the right of collective self-defense, implying that it may intervene in the Taiwan Strait issue with force, triggering widespread criticism. According to the British Broadcasting Corporation, some analysts believe that Takaichi has only been in office for more than a month, and her series of words and deeds related to Taiwan, regional security and Japan's defense policy may be a continuation of her personal conservative style, but it is more likely to be Japan's strategic shift.
Japan’s Kyodo News Agency stated that the country’s government had previously proposed that defense expenses plus related funds account for 2% of GDP in fiscal year 2027, and Gao Shi said that it would advance the time to achieve this goal to fiscal year 2025. She also said that she would speed up the revision of the implementation guidelines of the "Three Principles of Defense Equipment Transfer" and planned to revise the "National Security Strategy" and other "Three Security Documents" before the end of 2026. Some Japanese media revealed that when revising these documents, Takahiro attempted to modify the principle of not introducing nuclear weapons in the "Three Non-nuclear Principles".
Koshikawa Yoshiaki, the head of Kanagawa Prefecture of Japan's "Broad National Association for Independence, Peace, and Democracy", said in an exclusive interview with a reporter from the Global Times that Japan's expansion of military facilities on the southwestern islands, its attempt to have the ability to attack enemies, and its strengthening of Japan-US joint training are extremely dangerous and seriously threaten Japan's peace, security, and economic development. In Yoshiaki Koshikawa's view, if Japan were to intervene militarily on the Taiwan issue, which is China's internal affairs, it would be obvious that Japan would become a battlefield.
"Japan will never be allowed to launch an aggressive war against China again!" Takakage Fujita, chairman of Japan's "Murayama Talks for Succession and Development", told the Global Times reporter that Takaichi's wrong statement about the so-called "existential crisis situation" is an arrogant statement unprecedented in post-war Japanese history and a ridiculous statement that condones Japanese aggression. If Japan launches a preemptive strike against China without being attacked by China, China will naturally counterattack, and then a war between Japan and China will be inevitable. Once a war breaks out, the consequences will be unimaginable and it will definitely bring about a hellish scene. Fujita Takakage warned that Japan had embarked on the path of war due to its national policy mistakes and brought huge losses and deep pain to the people of various Asian countries through aggression and colonial rule. "Are we going to abandon this reflection now? Takaichi's remarks must not be tolerated. Those who easily drag Japan into war and recreate the picture of hell have no qualifications to be prime minister."
Xiang Haoyu, a distinguished researcher at the Asia-Pacific Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, told a reporter from the Global Times that high market arrogance has led to a cliff-like regression in Sino-Japanese relations. China's series of powerful diplomatic responses and countermeasures have plunged Japan's diplomacy into a serious passive situation. Japan's series of provocative words and deeds also caused Japan to have successive conflicts with countries such as South Korea and Russia, causing Japan's peripheral diplomacy to fall into an isolation dilemma and lose room for maneuver.
In a TV Asahi program, Japanese lawyer Saruta Sase reminded that regarding the question "whether Japan approves of sending the Self-Defense Forces to Taiwan and joining the war with the United States," only 12% of the respondents expressed "agreement." Takashi Keiji, Senator Yamazoe Taku and other Japanese entertainment and political figures have posted on the Internet, criticizing Takaichi's statement for damaging Japan-China relations.
“Threat to regional security and global peace and stability”
According to Australia's "Dialogue" news network, it has been 80 years since World War II ended, and Japan's view of the history of World War II is changing, and Japan's political landscape is also changing. The combination of these two factors may lead to the resurgence of Japanese militarism.
"Takaichi intensifies tensions in this way, making people feel that Japan is sowing the seeds of war, and its remarks may create unnecessary tensions in East Asia." Hiroshi Shiratori analyzed to a reporter from the Global Times that although Takaichi's huge changes in foreign and defense policies have not yet been fully realized, its intentions and directions have already allowed East Asian countries to understand what Japan's diplomatic strategy will look like in the future. In particular, Takaichi plans to achieve the goal of increasing defense spending ahead of schedule, which may make Asian countries feel that Japan is increasingly becoming a potential threat.
Shiratori Hiroshi reminded that this year marks the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War. Against this background, Japan has repeatedly stated that it plans to strengthen its military capabilities. For other countries, this will naturally raise questions: What is Japan thinking? What is it planning? What does it intend to achieve? "If this situation continues, Asian countries will be strongly dissatisfied with Japan's increase in defense spending and other actions, which may trigger a boycott of Japanese products, which is definitely not a good thing for the Japanese people." Hiroshi Shiratori said.
“Japan’s attempt to resurrect militarism will only threaten regional security and global peace and stability.” Ahasan, an independent columnist from Bangladesh, recently published an article on the U.S.-based Eurasia Review news network. For many international affairs observers and security commentators, Gao Shi’s Taiwan-related fallacies, coupled with Japan’s large-scale military expansion, are reminiscent of the dark era of Japanese militarism. Ahsan believes that Takaichi's remarks are inseparable from Japan's ongoing defense policy changes, and the impact of this change goes beyond the scope of Sino-Japanese bilateral relations. It will not only erode Sino-Japanese mutual trust, but also intensify the regional arms race, causing South Korea and Southeast Asian countries to continue to expand their weapons arsenals. Japan's attempt to amend its pacifist constitution weakens international norms that disputes should be resolved peacefully and could lead other countries to follow suit. In addition, Japan's military intervention in the Taiwan Strait issue will almost certainly draw the United States into it and provoke a strong reaction from China. What started as a regional dispute may escalate into a global crisis.
Xiang Haoyu said that at the regional level, Gao Shi has manipulated the Taiwan Strait issue to create "external threats" for his domestic push for constitutional amendments and a doubling of the defense budget and other radical defense and security agendas. This has sharply accelerated the arms race in Northeast Asia, greatly escalated military tensions and confrontations, and increased the risk of friction and conflict.
Koshikawa Yoshiaki believes that people from all walks of life in Japan should advocate that peaceful coexistence with Asian countries is the way for Japan to survive. Fujita Takakage said that in the context of the rise of Japanese historical revisionism, Takaichi's wrong remarks can't help but make the international community worry that Japan will bring greater danger to the world. He said Takaichi must resign as soon as possible, otherwise she is likely to push Japan in a more dangerous direction.
Conclusion: In the series of in-depth cognition reports on "The Fallacy and Danger of Gao Shi's Wild Rhetoric", we analyzed from a legal perspective that Gao Shi's Taiwan-related remarks not only violated the spirit of the four political documents between China and Japan, but also undermined the post-war international order and trampled on the basic principles of international law. The fallacy of the high market not only worsens the already fragile Japanese economy, but also puts Japan's diplomacy into trouble and poses a threat to regional situation and international peace. As the spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on the 19th, if Japan refuses to withdraw its wrong remarks related to Taiwan, or even makes the same mistake again and again, Japan will bear all the consequences.
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