(Source: China-Singapore Jingwei 2026-02-28)
According to CCTV News, on the 28th local time, Israel and the United States launched attacks on multiple targets, including the Iranian Presidential Palace. Subsequently, Iran launched missile attacks on Tel Aviv and other places in Israel. Multiple US military bases in the Middle East were also attacked.
How will the US-Israeli attack on Iran affect the stock market, gold prices, and oil prices?
Overall, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, told Sino-Singapore Jingwei that the re-escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East will have a negative impact on investor sentiment, which may in turn affect global stock markets. We need to continue to pay attention to the development of the situation in the future. If the situation worsens further, the price fluctuations of crude oil, gold, and silver, as well as the adjustment pressure on global stock markets, will further increase.
Gold Price: The Next 24–48 Hours Are Crucial
Looking specifically at gold prices, Wang Weimang, investment manager of the Asset Management Department of Zhonghui Futures, told Sino-Singapore Jingwei that in the global asset pricing system, gold has always been the core anchor for hedging geopolitical uncertainty. When traditional credit currencies and equity assets face systemic risks such as wars and sanctions, funds will instinctively flow to gold, driving its price up rapidly. This is also the underlying driving force for this round of gold's jump.
Wang Weimang believes that the subsequent gold price trend will be highly dependent on the intensity of Iran's counterattack and the scope of the conflict. If Iran takes limited and precise retaliation and only attacks Israel or US military bases without blocking shipping lanes, gold will remain at high levels and fluctuate repeatedly during the period of risk aversion and market digestion; if the war spreads to areas such as Lebanon and the Red Sea, and shipping is blocked and energy supply shrinks further, gold will be driven by both risk aversion and inflation, starting a significant upward trend; if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz and the United States and Iran fall into full-scale war, gold will become the "ultimate safe haven" for global funds, and prices are expected to hit record highs.
In the short term, Wang Weimang pointed out that gold will maintain high volatility. In the medium term, as long as there is no clear signal of easing the war in the Middle East, gold's hedging and anti-inflation logic will continue to take effect, and its allocation value will remain outstanding; in the long term, the underlying logic of continued gold purchases by global central banks and the deepening of de-dollarization trends has not changed. Added to the background of frequent geopolitical conflicts, gold's long-term allocation value will still be supported and can be used as a core tool for hedging systemic risks in asset portfolios.
Wang Weimang believes that the next 24-48 hours will be the key observation window to determine the height of gold prices. At the same time, it is also necessary to pay attention to whether the technical negotiations in Vienna on March 2 will shift the conflict to diplomatic cooling.
Oil prices: easy to rise but hard to fall
Looking at the specific impact on international oil prices, Dong Xiucheng, executive director of the China International Carbon Neutral Economic Research Institute at the w88 casino, told Sino-Singapore Jingwei that in terms of short-term impact, Iran is OPEC's third largest oil producer, with an average daily export of about 1.5 million barrels. Attacks on ports/facilities will directly reduce global supply. The Strait of Hormuz is responsible for 20% of the world's crude oil shipping. Shipping risks, insurance premiums, and rush for goods have simultaneously pushed up oil prices. The market has changed from "supply and demand driven" to "purely geo-driven", and it is easy to rise but difficult to fall. Therefore, international oil prices are expected to jump rapidly: after the Brent/WTI market opens, there is a high probability that it will open 5%-10% higher, and the geopolitical premium will rise again based on the original US$10/barrel.
Yang Delong mentioned that Iran is an important oil producer in the world. An attack on Iran may lead to an imbalance in supply and demand in the international crude oil market, and international oil prices may rise sharply in response. Yang Delong said that rising oil prices will directly increase the production costs of chemical industries that use oil as raw materials. At the same time, industries with greater oil consumption demand will have their profit margins squeezed due to rising costs. The international aviation industry will also be significantly affected.
atDong XiuchengIt seems that the impact on international oil prices depends on the scale of the conflict, whether it affects the Strait of Hormuz, and the intensity of Iran’s retaliation. It can be analyzed in three scenarios:
The first is limited attack (high probability). Brent oil prices may surge to 85-95 US dollars per barrel in the short term, and then fall back in shock, with the risk premium gradually fading. It will return to market fundamentals within 1-2 weeks. The current global oil supply is relatively loose and there is no real market shortage.
The second is the escalation of the conflict (high probability). Oil prices may quickly exceed US$100/barrel and sprint above US$120/barrel, which will have a serious impact on the global economy. Oil freight rates will skyrocket, refinery profits will be compressed, global inflation will rebound, and central bank policies will be under pressure.
The third is all-out confrontation (low probability). International oil prices may soar to 120-150 US dollars per barrel, or even higher, leading to a global energy crisis, economic recession risks, and aviation/logistics/chemical costs soaring.
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