(Source: CCTV 2026-03-01)
According to the "Global New Financial News" report of China Central Radio and Television's economic voice, the situation in the Middle East has escalated, and the global market is facing a sudden increase in uncertainty. Investors are generally nervous and full of doubts about the future trend of the market. With a new week of trading about to begin, how will this conflict affect global stock markets? How will international oil prices and gold prices change?
Let’s talk about the stock market first. Judging from historical experience, such geopolitical conflicts usually trigger short-term violent market fluctuations. Tian Lihui, dean of the Institute of Financial Development at Nankai University, believes that as an emergency, the conflict in the Middle East will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the global stock market. The size of the subsequent impact depends critically on whether the conflict will escalate into a long-term war.
Tian Lihui said: "It will definitely bring the global financial system from a low-volatility equilibrium to a high-premium turbulence. Everyone will be worried about the impact. The stock market will theoretically open lower, which is bad news for the stock market. Once it enters a tug-of-war and a protracted war, the impact on asset prices will be far-reaching and will have a serious impact on the stock market."
Statistical data shows that during the seven major conflicts in the Middle East in the past 20 years, the average fluctuation range of A shares and Hong Kong stocks was only 0.8%, which is far lower than the 3% to 5% amplitude of European and American markets. So, will this escalation of the conflict in the Middle East have a significant impact on A shares? Xing Xing, director of Boxing Securities Research Institute, predicts that it will not change the operating trend of A-shares themselves.
Xing Xing said: "In the short term, market volatility will increase due to the global risk aversion. Foreign investors have risk appetite and the market is more likely to strengthen. Sectors such as oil and gas, gold, and military industry are more likely to strengthen. Aviation's high valuation growth and downstream manufacturing are under pressure. The logic of the medium and long-term impact is completely different from that of the short term. It is no longer driven by emotions, but depends on the intensity of conflicts and whether energy and shipping are affected by the real situation. A qualitative impact. If the conflict is controllable, the external impact will quickly fade, and the market will return to the fundamentals of domestic economic policies and corporate profits. If it escalates significantly, it will affect profits through oil prices, supply chains, inflation, etc., and intensify industry differentiation. In the long term, geopolitical conflicts are only external disturbances and will not change the long-term upward direction of A-shares. Instead, they will strengthen structural themes such as personnel safety, military supply chains, and independent control.”
Let’s talk about international oil prices. Iran is OPEC's third largest oil producer, exporting about 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day. The escalation of the situation in the Middle East will undoubtedly affect global oil prices. At present, Iran has announced that no ship has the right to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Dong Xiucheng, an energy economist and professor at the w88 casino, believes that there are three core factors that affect international oil prices: the scale of the conflict, whether the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and Iran’s counterattack. Among them, the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz is the key.
Dong XiuchengAnalysis: “If the Strait of Hormuz is not involved, for example, Iran does not have a significant impact on oil facilities in the entire Middle East, oil prices will rise, but they can rise by 10% or 20%, which is a dead end. But if the issue of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is involved, oil prices will definitely exceed US$100 per barrel. If the conflict escalates further, oil prices will continue to rise. ”
Dong XiuchengFrom an industry perspective, further analysis shows that in addition to the upstream oil and gas exploration industry that can enjoy the dividends of rising oil prices, the petrochemical industry and many downstream manufacturing industries that rely on crude oil as raw materials or fuel will face rising costs and squeezed profits. The air transportation industry will also be affected.
Tian Lihui believes that once oil prices rise sharply, it will be good news for products that can replace oil.
Tian Lihui said: "For these new energy industries and related energy storage industries, they will be favored by capital. It is not ruled out that funds will quickly sell related petrochemical stocks and immediately turn to new energy stocks. Alternative energy will clearly be a relatively beneficial sector."
Finally, there is the price of gold. As a hard currency, gold is a recognized asset "safe haven". Precious metal industry research expert Jiang Shu analyzed that no matter which region there is a major geopolitical conflict, it will be beneficial to the price of gold in the short term. The promotion of risk aversion often causes the price of gold to surge or even hit historical highs. Before the outbreak of this round of conflict, some hedging funds had already poured into the market, and the conflict itself will further intensify the market's demand for hedging. However, whether gold can start a medium-term upward trend also depends on the longevity of the conflict. If the conflict subsides quickly, safe-haven funds may partially return to risky assets, causing gold prices to give up some of their gains.
Jiang Shu said: "The impact of the conflict on gold prices is positive in the short term. In the medium term, it mainly depends on whether the conflict has a major impact on the crude oil market, because after a major impact on the crude oil market, it will change the market's future economic prospects. For investors, if the price of gold continues to rise in the short term, they can continue to hold it if the price of oil does not change. However, if they find that the price of oil surges rapidly, they can be safe in the short term and even reduce the proportion of investment or allocation.”
In the face of unpredictable geopolitical risks, Xing Xing recommends that investors appropriately increase the proportion of traditional defensive assets such as gold and high-dividend blue chips, and reduce exposure to assets with high valuations, high leverage, and high external dependence. This can effectively hedge fluctuations and avoid sharp retracement when market risk aversion increases. He also reminded that geopolitical conflicts are external disturbances and should not shake confidence in domestic policies and industrial main lines. Sectors such as military industry, energy security, and independent controllability have long-term logic. They can not only demonstrate a certain degree of defensiveness against external risks, but also enjoy the long-term dividends brought by national strategies and industrial upgrades.
In general, many experts have suggested that in the face of rapidly changing and complex situations, ordinary investors must remain highly vigilant, keep up with developments, dynamically adjust judgments, and always put risk control and principal safety first.
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