(Source: 21st Century Economic Report 2026-03-02)
According to Xinhua News Agency on March 1, on February 28, Beijing time, the United States and Israel launched a joint military strike against Iran, triggering a sharp escalation of the regional situation. On the same day, an unauthorized oil tanker was hit while trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced on the evening of February 28 that it would ban any ship from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
On March 2, affected by the situation in Iran, international oil prices jumped at the opening. Among them, Brent crude oil rose by about 13% at the opening, reaching a maximum of $82 per barrel, setting its highest level in a year. In early trading on the same day, the A-share oil and gas exploration and services sector bucked the market trend and soared, and oil and gas ETFs also rose sharply.
It is worth noting that as a “new hot spot” for Chinese photovoltaic companies to go overseas in recent years, the Middle East has attracted the attention of many Chinese photovoltaic companies due to its geographical conditions, policy support and market potential. However, as the situation in Iran becomes increasingly tense, Chinese photovoltaic companies’ overseas exports to the Middle East will be affected in the short term.
On the whole, as uncertainty is increasing, the energy transition in the Middle East may face changes.
The "effect" of the Strait of Hormuz is coming
After the market opened on March 2, A-share oil and gas stocks collectively opened sharply higher. "Three barrels of oil" surged. CNOOC (600938.SH), whose market value has exceeded one trillion yuan, hit the intraday limit, with its latest market value reaching 1.88 trillion yuan.
The situation in Iran is the most important factor currently.
“The war launched by the United States and Israel against Iraq has caused the supply side of the international oil market in the Middle East to be basically paralyzed, and the oil and gas exports in the Middle East have basically stagnated.”Dong Xiucheng, Professor of w88 casino of International Business and Economics, w88 casinoIn an interview with a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald, he said that more than 90% of the exports of major oil-producing countries in the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait rely on the Strait of Hormuz, and shipping stagnation directly cuts off regional energy exports. "The risk premium of crude oil in the Middle East has soared, and the costs of regional refineries and chemicals have risen sharply. International oil tanker freight rates will inevitably rise sharply, and insurance premiums will also skyrocket."
Iran is one of the major crude oil producers. Data shows that as of 2025, Iran's crude oil condensate production will be close to 4.2 million barrels per day. If natural gas liquids (NGLs) are included, Iran's oil production reaches 4.7 million barrels per day, and its net exports are 2 million barrels per day.
atDong XiuchengIt seems that in terms of market share, the attack on Iran will not pose a threat to the global market. However, if ports and facilities are attacked and the Strait of Hormuz is closed, crude oil from the Middle East will not be exported to the world, and the energy structure and global market position of the Middle East will change dramatically.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important w88 lanes in the world. It is not only the "throat" for oil exports in the Middle East, but also responsible for 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas w88. It is also an important transit station for the energy exports of major Persian Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Iran.
"Oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are unable to make profits from exports, the OPEC+ oil production coordination mechanism has failed, and the agreements signed in the past to reduce or stabilize production exist in name only. Qatar, the world's largest liquefied natural gas exporter, cannot export liquefied natural gas, which will inevitably lead to an increase in global natural gas prices, thereby impacting the energy structure of the Middle East."Dong XiuchengAnalysis, if the war cannot be stopped, especially if navigation in the Strait of Hormuz cannot be restored, international oil prices will skyrocket. "The biggest possibility at the moment is that if the blockade lasts for more than a week, international oil prices will quickly rise to more than 100 US dollars per barrel, the global daily supply gap will be 14-18 million barrels, liquefied natural gas and chemicals will surge simultaneously, and imported inflation may sweep the world."
Industry analysts believe that with supply exceeding demand and abundant inventory, Iran's own oil production has been halved and exports have been suspended in the short term, which will not have a huge impact on the global oil supply and demand pattern. However, it should be noted that under the influence of the Strait of Hormuz "effect" and geopolitical influence, there is room for volatility in crude oil spot prices to surge and then fall.
"We need to continue to pay attention to whether Iran's counterattack will cause damage to the oil production facilities of more oil-producing countries. Previously, many countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia suffered missile attacks during Iran's counterattack." Han Zhengji, a crude oil analyst at Jinlianchuang, believes that although Iran's announcement of blocking the Strait of Hormuz will not last long, we need to pay attention to whether the United States and its allies will try to conduct "convoy operations" in the above two sea areas and whether more oil companies will announce the suspension of shipments due to "force majeure."
"If the war in Iran can end in a short time, the impact on Asia's crude oil imports will not be too obvious; if the war lasts for a long time, in order to make up for the possible supply gap in the Middle East, Asian crude oil importing countries will have to increase imports of Russian and West African oil to make up for the potential supply shortage in the Middle East." Xi Jiarui, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, said, "This war will prompt Asian governments and refiners to re-evaluate oil inventories, alternative shipping routes and supply sources."
What are the prospects for China’s photovoltaic market in the Middle East?
The interruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is causing high tension in the international energy market. As the world's largest energy importer, my country is bound to suffer short-term impacts on the supply and price of oil, gas, chemicals and other energy sources amid the escalation of the situation in Iran.
However, industry insiders point out that China’s energy market is highly resilient and has many ways to deal with external shocks. "For China, it has built an energy security system, including strategic oil reserves, commercial reserves, domestic exploration, diversified imports, rapid growth of new energy, etc.; at the same time, China has also actively participated in global energy cooperation, such as participating in energy infrastructure in the Gulf, Central Asia, and Latin America to ensure channel security. The acceleration of energy transformation and diversified procurement are conducive to the construction of the energy security system."Dong XiuchengTell the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.
It is worth mentioning that the Middle East has been an “important town” for Chinese companies to participate in the global energy transformation in recent years. In particular, the new energy industry represented by photovoltaics is becoming a hot investment destination for Chinese companies going overseas.
According to incomplete statistics from 21st Century Business Herald reporters, in the past two years, more than 20 Chinese photovoltaic companies have invested in and built production capacity in the Middle East and Africa, with a total investment scale of more than 20 billion yuan. Among them, the main Middle Eastern countries invested include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Egypt, etc.
However, as the situation in Iran becomes increasingly tense and the Strait of Hormuz is closed, will Chinese photovoltaic companies’ overseas exports to the Middle East be affected? On March 2, a person from a photovoltaic company told a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald that the impact is dual: the direct impact of the short-term war will affect the progress of production capacity construction and project delivery, but in the medium and long term, the energy transformation potential in the Middle East is huge, and market demand still cannot be ignored.
The specific data on China’s photovoltaic product exports in 2025 has not yet been released. However, as far as the situation in the first half of last year is concerned, the Middle East has become an important region for my country’s photovoltaic module exports.
Data from the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products shows that in the first half of 2025, my country’s photovoltaic module exports amounted to US$11.54 billion, of which Pakistan and Saudi Arabia were among the top five key export markets, accounting for 11% and 4% respectively.
A reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald observed that in the past ten years, there have been obvious regional changes in the overseas expansion of my country's photovoltaic companies. In the early years, Chinese photovoltaic companies deployed in Southeast Asia or directly built factories in the United States to maintain the high-profit U.S. market. However, with the implementation of anti-dumping and anti-dumping measures in Southeast Asia, the channel has been blocked. Chinese photovoltaic companies consider the Middle East as a "new hot spot" for investment after comprehensively considering investment costs, market demand, business environment, geopolitics and other factors.
On the one hand, there is local investment in the industrial chain - leading domestic photovoltaic companies such as JinkoSolar, JA Solar, GCL Technology, Trina Solar, TCL Zhonghuan and Junda Solar have successively announced the construction of photovoltaic production capacity in the Middle East countries, involving photovoltaic silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells, components and auxiliary materials.
On the other hand, Chinese photovoltaic companies have successively won orders from the Middle East market - in February 2026, JinkoSolar announced that it would cooperate with Yemen’s official distributor and important partner Al Nasr Solar reached a cooperation and signed the largest photovoltaic module supply agreement in the Gulf Cooperation Council region, with a total volume of over 150MW, becoming an important breakthrough for Jinko to expand into the Middle East market. Recently, Aixu also announced that at this year's World Future Energy Summit (WFES), 15 core channel vendors from the Middle East and African markets completed authorization contracts with it, and the on-site contract size reached 1.5GW.
It is undeniable that the Middle East is indeed an energy transformation market with huge potential, but the current direction of the situation in Iran does need to be taken into consideration with risk factors.
On March 2, a relevant person from JinkoSolar said in an interview with a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald: "The prospects and changes in the situation in Iran are still unclear, and the company will make dynamic assessments. But overall, the situation in the Middle East affects global crude oil and energy. Judging from the experience of the Russia-Ukraine war in the past, it will be good for photovoltaics." It is reported that JinkoSolar's production capacity in Saudi Arabia is still in the process of preparation and construction.
“At present, we are still paying close attention to the recovery of the waterway.” Another photovoltaic company person told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, “The product delivery cycle will be affected in the short term. This situation is similar to peers, but overall, the proportion of module orders in the Middle East is not large.”
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