(Source: Think Tank Toutiao 2026-03-02）
Affected by the escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East triggered by the military strikes launched by the United States and Israel against Iran, the sudden changes in the international market have made the world destined to be unable to calm down.
On March 2, the global crude oil market fell into turmoil. The price of Brent crude oil once rose by 13%, exceeding US$82 per barrel, hitting its highest level since January 2025; WTI crude oil once rose by more than 12%, reaching as high as US$80.82 per barrel.
On the same day, the domestic oil and gas sector started to rise and stop. Tongyuan Petroleum, COSL, Zhongman Petroleum, Intercontinental Oil and Gas and other stocks rose by the daily limit. In addition, PetroChina rose 6.72%, Sinopec rose 2.63%, and CNOOC rose 9.92%.
It is noteworthy that in order to maintain the stability of the oil market, on March 1, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (hereinafter referred to as "OPEC") issued a statement saying that eight major oil-producing countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman) decided to increase production by an average of 206,000 barrels per day in April.
But what worries the market is that more than 90% of the exports of Middle Eastern oil-producing countries rely on the Strait of Hormuz, carrying about 21 million barrels of crude oil every day. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz is responsible for nearly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supply, and the daily export volume of crude oil through the strait will reach 13.4 million barrels in 2025. After the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on February 28, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that night that it would ban any ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This means that even if OPEC decides to increase production, whether it can be shipped is the key issue.
The latest report from Goldman Sachs pointed out that the current crude oil market has priced in a risk premium of US$18 per barrel, equivalent to the expected impact of a six-week blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, the global natural gas and shipping markets are also affected. Goldman Sachs warned that if liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies in the Strait of Hormuz were cut off for a month, European gas prices could surge 130%, while very large crude carrier (VLCC) freight rates from the Middle East to China had tripled in the month before Friday's close.
The core factors currently affecting changes in international oil prices
Dong Xiucheng, Executive Dean of the China International Carbon Neutral Economic Research Institute, w88 casinoIn an interview with a reporter from China Economic Times, he said that in the context of the U.S.-Israel war, which is full of uncertainties, the current core factor affecting changes in international oil prices is geopolitics. It is expected that oil prices will skyrocket. As for how much the increase will be, it mainly depends on the trend of the war, especially the degree and duration of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and whether it will cause the war parties to attack the oil and gas fields, refineries, pipelines and ports of Middle East oil-producing countries. Energy infrastructure such as oil and gas fields.
At present, after the joint US-Israeli air strikes on Iran, Iran has announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is responsible for 20%-25% of the world's shipping crude oil, about 18-21 million barrels per day. The supply interruption has caused extreme panic in the energy market. The international capital market may take measures to avoid risks, and the crude oil futures market will definitely experience violent fluctuations. From the perspective of global oil and gas supply and demand, supply capacity is generally greater than demand, and there are no market support conditions for high oil prices. However, due to geopolitical factors, international oil prices have always included a geopolitical risk premium of US$5-10/barrel. The US-Israeli war has intensified geopolitical risks and will cause the geopolitical premium to soar rapidly.
Dong Xiuchengsaid that in the future, we need to focus on the following key indicators: the recovery of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, follow-up military actions by Iran and the United States and Israel, whether OPEC releases idle production capacity, whether the IEA releases strategic reserves, US oil inventory data and global refinery operating rates, etc. In the short term, if the conflict is limited and the strait gradually recovers, international oil prices will rise and then fall back. Brent may fluctuate in the range of 78-85 US dollars. However, if the strait continues to be blocked, then Brent oil prices will break through 90 US dollars or 100 US dollars, or even higher. However, as the war situation slows down, it will gradually fall back and return to the fundamentals of supply and demand. In the medium term, if the conflict eases, the geopolitical premium subsides, and supply and demand return to fundamentals, oil prices may fall back to US$65-75. However, if OPEC cuts production and demand continues to pick up, international oil prices will be more likely to rise than fall and remain at a high level. From a long-term trend perspective, changes in international oil prices will depend on fundamental factors such as the strength of global economic recovery, OPEC policies, increased U.S. shale oil production, new energy substitution, etc. Overall, they may tend to decline and maintain low price fluctuations.
Wan Zhe, a professor at Beijing Normal University and an economics expert, pointed out in an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times that the sharp jump in international oil prices is the market's direct response to extreme geopolitical risks. The core driving force for the surge in oil prices is not the traditional supply and demand fundamentals, but the real panic about supply interruptions. The trigger was the United States and Israel launching military attacks on Iran, especially after Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the oil tanker was hit. Because the Strait of Hormuz is the chokepoint for global oil transportation and is responsible for nearly one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil w88, if its passage is blocked, it means that the entire crude oil cannot be shipped out. This supply impact is actually more serious than production cuts. Looking at the market outlook, the short-term oil price trend will be completely dominated by the situation in the Middle East. If the conflict continues to escalate, or the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, the oil price will definitely hit a higher range. If the situation cools down relatively quickly, the oil price will fall back after the market surge. Now the market should be said to have entered a geopolitical pricing mode, and high volatility will become the norm.
Chen Jianwei, Professor of the National Institute for Opening up, w88 casinotold a reporter from the China Economic Times that the current jump in international oil prices is a direct result of the sharp rise in geopolitical risks in the Middle East triggered by the US-Israeli attack on Iran. In the short term, oil prices will remain high and fluctuate strongly. The main driving force of this trend is the market's panic about potential Iranian retaliation and supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which caused risk premiums to instantly push up WTI and Brent prices. If the conflict does not escalate rapidly, oil prices may gradually fall in the range of 82-90 US dollars, but the overall center has risen compared with before, and geopolitical factors will dominate the trend in the next few weeks.
OPEC’s increase in production is only a “tranquilizer”, not a “special medicine”
atDong XiuchengIt seems that for the international oil market, OPEC's increase in production is just a "sedative" rather than a "special medicine" to suppress the rise in oil prices. In the short term, it cannot suppress geopolitical panic. In the medium term, it may slightly support supply and demand and curb the skyrocketing. As far as the overall oil price is concerned, the effect on alleviating oil prices is very limited. Within the OPEC mechanism, the ability of oil-producing countries outside the Middle East to increase production is very limited, while the oil-producing countries in the Middle East have greater potential to increase production. However, they are constrained by the transportation of the Strait of Hormuz channel, making it difficult to form effective supply. Judging from the average daily increase in production of 206,000 barrels in April, it only accounts for 0.2% of global crude oil demand (about 100 million barrels per day). However, the daily shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz is 18-21 million barrels, and Iran’s daily exports are about 1.2 million barrels. The increase cannot fill the potential gap caused by the blockade of the strait/Iran’s supply cutoff. Therefore, whether international oil prices can be stable depends on whether the Strait of Hormuz is blocked and the conflict escalates. In the short term, oil prices still depend on war. Increased production cannot stop oil prices from rising.
Wan Zhe said that OPEC’s increase in production will do little to alleviate the current pressure on rising oil prices. In terms of magnitude, the average daily increase in production of more than 200,000 barrels is a drop in the bucket compared to the global daily demand of more than 100 million barrels. It is actually insignificant to the normal shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz, and it will certainly not be able to fill the potential supply "black hole." From a time point of view, the production increase was implemented in April, but the market's core anxiety is whether it can be shipped smoothly now. Therefore, the production increase plan that was only implemented in April should be said to have more signal significance than actual impact. It is just a gesture of oil-producing countries showing their readiness to use idle production capacity to appease market sentiment. From another perspective, this actually shows that OPEC does not believe that the future situation in the Middle East or the trend of oil prices can maintain a high level for a long time.
Chen Jianwei believes that it is difficult for OPEC to increase production to reverse the current upward trend. This increase in production only accounts for about 0.2% of global daily production, which is far from enough to offset the supply uncertainty caused by the US and Israel's attack on Iran. The market is still pricing geopolitical risks. Therefore, the effect of mitigating the rise in oil prices is very limited. In the short term, oil prices will continue to be conflict-driven, and may only slightly suppress gains in the medium term, preventing a quick return to lows.
The escalation of the situation in the Middle East will profoundly reshape the international market
What profound impact will the situation in the Middle East have on the future international market?How does China respond to international market fluctuations?
Dong Xiuchengbelieves that international oil prices will be highly volatile, which will inevitably lead to rising costs across the entire industry chain: for every $10/barrel increase in oil prices, global CPI will rise by 0.3-0.7 percentage points and GDP will fall by 0.1-0.2 percentage points; chemicals, aviation, logistics, and agriculture (fertilizers/agricultural machinery) will be under pressure. Precious metal prices strengthened: gold and silver became the first choice for safe havens, and gold prices rose. Shipping and supply chains are broken: freight and insurance premiums are skyrocketing, delivery cycles are lengthening, and global delivery of chips/automobiles/electronics/chemicals is blocked. The risk of stagflation in the global economy is rising, and central bank policies are in a dilemma: whether to fight inflation or stabilize growth; expectations of interest rate cuts have been postponed, and some countries may restart interest rate increases. The restructuring of global w88 and supply chains is accelerating, w88 routes are being rerouted, and Eurasian w88 is circling the Cape of Good Hope. Costs are rising and the cycle is lengthening.
For China, Dong Xiucheng suggested that the following response strategies should be adopted: First, ensure energy security: ensure supply + diversification + reserves, expand crude oil imports from Russia, Central Asia, and South America, and reduce dependence on the Middle East; lock prices in long-term agreements, reduce Reduce the impact of spot fluctuations; second, make full use of reserves, improve crude oil storage capacity, and stabilize prices through timely handling; expand natural gas and coal reserves; third, accelerate the pace of energy transformation, increase investment in wind power, photovoltaic, energy storage, and hydrogen energy, and reduce external dependence on crude oil.
Wan Zhe pointed out that the impact of the situation in the Middle East should be said to be not only a short-term pulse on global oil prices, but also a reshaping of global energy w88 flows and security patterns. Countries may re-evaluate their over-reliance on the Strait of Hormuz and accelerate the search for diversified energy supply channels, which will actually have a long-term impact on global energy infrastructure investment and geopolitical alliances. For my country, as the world's largest crude oil importer, we need to seek to diversify our import sources. Now our country is also flexibly adjusting its procurement structure. For example, when crude oil in West Africa and other regions becomes more expensive due to rising oil prices and shipping costs, we will increase our procurement efforts from the Middle East and Russia. In addition, the adjustment of strategic reserves will be increased and channel security layout will be carried out. In the long term, we should carry out energy transformation, vigorously develop new energy, reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP, and gradually reduce rigid dependence on fossil energy. This is actually an important channel to deal with the storms in the international energy market.
Chen Jianwei said that the escalation of the situation in the Middle East will profoundly reshape the international market, leading to increased long-term fluctuations in energy prices, accelerated global inflation transmission, and the restructuring of the supply chain and investment pattern. Conflicts may push up commodity costs, accelerate the energy transition process, amplify the strategic game between major powers in the energy and geopolitical fields, and increase global economic uncertainty. China's response is to accelerate the diversification of energy imports (strengthening cooperation with Central Asia, etc.), enrich strategic oil reserves, accelerate the deployment of renewable energy and nuclear power, and maintain the stability of oil imports through peaceful diplomacy to effectively buffer the impact of market fluctuations.
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