(Source: "Sanlian Life Weekly" 2026-03-04)
We will open fire on any ship that attempts to cross the Strait of Hormuz. " On March 2, local time, Brigadier General Ibrahim Jabari of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps emphasized this when talking about this strategic global crude oil transportation channel in an interview with Iranian state television, and claimed that "a drop of oil will never be allowed to leave the region, and the oil price will reach US$200 per barrel in the next few days." The day before, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed that they had hit three British and American oil tankers. Real-time data from the International Tanker Flow Monitoring System shows that the sailing speed of oil tankers in the waters surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has generally dropped to zero, indicating that shipping in the area has come to a standstill. Affected by this, the price of Brent crude oil futures rose by 13% after opening on March 2, and rose by approximately 6.7% at the close, with a settlement price of US$77.74, the largest single-day increase since June 2025. Concerns about rising oil prices and supply disruptions are still brewing. This magazine had an exclusive interview with Dai Jiaquan, chief economist of the China Petroleum Economics and Technology Research Institute, who has long studied the oil market, andEnergy Economist Dong Xiucheng, so is heProfessor of the w88 casino of International Economics and w88 at the w88 casino, Director of the Belt and Road Energy w88 and Development Research Center and Executive Director of the China International Carbon Neutral Economic Research Institute.
Sanlian Life Weekly: After Iran announced its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices rose rapidly. Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important?
Dai Jiaquan: The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf, the main producer of crude oil. It is a channel with the highest single-day crude oil transportation volume in the world and is crucial to global crude oil supply. The oil exported through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 will be 17.121 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 25% of global oil w88 volume. Among them, crude oil/condensate is 13.62 million barrels/day, accounting for approximately 32% of global crude oil w88 volume; petroleum products are approximately 3.52 million barrels/day, accounting for approximately 13% of global oil product w88 volume. If the Gulf countries want to transport oil out, the main alternative channels are Saudi Arabia's "East-West Crude Oil Pipeline", the United Arab Emirates' "Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline" and Iraq's "Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline". The three pipelines combined can only increase supply by about 3 million barrels per day at most, which is not even a fraction of the current daily oil throughput in the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, with the Hormuz line blocked, the global oil supply gap cannot be filled, and oil prices will definitely rise.
Dong Xiucheng:The most direct reason is that the lifeline of transportation has been strangled. Iran has announced a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is the only sea outlet in the Persian Gulf and the only channel for 1/3 of the world's seaborne crude oil and 1/5 of the world's total consumed crude oil. Once the blockade is long-term, it may be a "physical interruption" of the global energy supply chain, and there is no short-term alternative. The international oil market has not yet reached the point of "really cutting off supply", and prices reflect panic expectations of supply cuts.
Sanlian Life Weekly: What are the key factors that generally determine oil prices?
Dong Xiucheng:The fundamentals of market supply and demand are the most fundamental anchor in determining oil prices, while geopolitical factors are the main catalyst for short-term fluctuations. This surge in oil prices is dominated by geopolitical sentiment and expectations of channel blockades, but the fundamentals of supply and demand have not reversed. In the long term, global oil supply and demand will remain stable. Once navigation across the strait is restored, risk premiums will quickly retreat. Sanlian Life Weekly: Judging from the current situation, how long will the increase in oil prices last and how much will it increase? Dong Xiucheng: Only by looking at the conflict trend, intensity, and blockade time of the Strait of Hormuz can we know where oil prices will go in the future. If the conflict is limited, the strait is unblocked within 1-2 weeks, and shipping gradually resumes, Brent oil prices rise to 80-90 US dollars per barrel. After a few weeks, as OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) increases production and the war ends, oil prices will soon fall back to 70-75 US dollars per barrel based on supply and demand fundamentals, including a small geopolitical premium. I think this is the most likely scenario. If the conflict continues to escalate, the strait is blocked for 1-4 weeks, oil tankers cannot travel, and oil from the Middle East cannot be exported, then Brent oil prices will rise to highs and fluctuate above US$100 per barrel. If the conflict is extreme, with a total blockade and attacks on oil production facilities, and the supply gap of 15 million barrels per day continues, then Brent oil prices may skyrocket to 120-150 US dollars per barrel, or even higher, and last for a long time, and the global energy crisis may even occur again. But the probability of this happening is relatively small. Brent crude prices soar
Dai Jiaquan: As far as the actual performance of the market is concerned, the market's expectations for the continuation of this round of military conflict are not very strong, and there has been no violent rise. For example, on March 2, the price of Brent oil jumped to the highest intraday of 82 US dollars/barrel, but fell back to 78 US dollars/barrel at the end of the day. This significant intraday correction shows that everyone's psychological expectation is that this blockade should be short-term and will probably not last more than a month. Behind this is another consensus, that is, the Trump administration in the United States will definitely not accept this high oil price. It is in his interest to control the overall oil price at a medium to low level. The presidential executive order signed by Trump on the first day after taking office for the second time implemented the first national energy emergency in U.S. history and clearly pointed out that high energy prices have had a serious impact on Americans, especially low-income and fixed-income people.
In addition, as the United States is the world's largest oil consumer and a country on wheels, the public is very concerned about and sensitive to oil prices. Even considering the needs of the mid-term elections, lowering inflation and maintaining oil prices at a medium to low level will still be a priority for the Trump administration. Before the military strike in late February, the average domestic retail gasoline price (tax included) in the United States exceeded $3 per gallon, and this price is the upper limit of the reasonable psychological expectations of the American people. Therefore, there is a high probability that the Trump administration will not allow oil prices to rise sharply due to the United States' actions against Iran, significantly pushing up the price level, and Iran's oil production and export facilities will not become targets.
On March 1, US President Trump stated that military operations against Iran may last about four weeks, but may also be shorter, and agreed to dialogue with Iran’s new leadership. This also shows that the United States will still use war to promote change and negotiate. Although the probability is small, it is not completely impossible for an extreme situation to occur - if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for more than a month, and within two or three months, the situation will be completely different. The price of crude oil may rise to more than 100 US dollars per barrel, and may even be priceless, because there is no way to make up for this part of the supply gap in the short term - At present, the Gulf countries are mainly responsible for the surplus oil production capacity in the world, and Russia is under sanctions from the United States and the West. It is not impossible for some importing countries to increase domestic production in the short term, but this short-term increase will disrupt the production rhythm of oil fields and may lead to destructive exploitation.
Sanlian Life Weekly: What impact will the blockade have on Iran itself?
Dai Jiaquan: For Iran itself, as an important export product, 90% of oil must go through the Strait of Hormuz. A long-term blockade means long-term economic losses. Oil and related products are Iran's main source of income, so it may not be able to bear it. In addition, if oil continues to be used as a threat, neither importing nor exporting countries can bear it, which will push the United States and Israel to take action to change the status quo in the Strait of Hormuz.
Sanlian Life Weekly: What are the major consuming countries of oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz? How might it be affected?
Dong Xiucheng:Asian countries as a whole are the absolute main force. 80%-84% of Gulf oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz flows to Asia; China, India, Japan, and South Korea are the top four buyers, accounting for about 70% in total. Relatively speaking, Japan and South Korea are more dependent on Middle East oil, and will be more affected by the Hormuz outage. Japan imports 100% of its crude oil, with the Middle East accounting for more than 90%, and the volume passing through Hormuz accounts for 87%–90%, with almost no alternative routes. South Korea also relies on imports for 100% of its crude oil, with the Middle East accounting for 70%–81%, and relies on Hormuz for more than 70%. 73% of our country’s crude oil needs to be imported, and crude oil imported from the Strait of Hormuz accounts for 45%, so the impact is not small. However, national and commercial reserves, plus more alternative pipelines and lines, can release pressure and stabilize prices. On March 2, 2026 local time, Bandar Abbas Port, Iran, satellite images taken by Planetary Laboratory in 2026 showed smoke filling the air after a ship exploded in Bandar Abbas Port along the Strait of Hormuz. In addition to enduring the rise in global benchmark oil prices, Asia also has to bear a certain "premium" - the outage will also lead to increased freight and insurance premiums, and delays in shipping schedules, making Asian oil prices slightly higher than the global benchmark price.
Dai Jiaquan: In terms of energy reserves, there is no big problem for the largest importing countries to deal with short-term supply fluctuations within one month. The strategic oil reserves of Japan, South Korea and Europe have exceeded 90 days of net imports. In recent years, China has also increased the construction of reserves and emergency systems, and its emergency capabilities have been significantly improved. If the blockade is short, the price increase will be limited, and various emergency measures such as reserve release will be adopted to keep the impact within a controllable range. However, if the blockade continues for a long time, reaching a complete blockade of more than two or three months, the impact will not only be energy shortages, but also have a major negative impact on economic operations.
Sanlian Life Weekly: Why are the main consumers of Gulf oil in Asia? How did this pattern form?
Dong Xiucheng:This is the result of the inertia of geography, economics and industrial production. Geographically, the voyage from the Gulf to East Asia is the shortest. Estimated based on the common speed of very large crude carriers (VLCC), the journey from the Middle East to Japan/East Asia usually takes about 20 days (varies depending on the port, speed and loading and unloading arrangements), and it takes longer to Europe and the Americas. Economically, for a long period after World War II, Middle Eastern oil was mainly oriented to the European and American markets; however, as Japan accelerated its industrialization in the 1970s and relied almost entirely on imports, the Middle East gradually became its core source. After entering the 21st century, China's industrialization and transportation oil consumption grew faster after China joined the WTO in 2001, and demand has increased significantly in the past three decades. China, Japan, South Korea, and India have no obvious advantages in reserves and extraction capabilities, and the oil-producing countries in the Middle East also need Asia. European demand is stagnant, and the United States is self-sufficient. Only Asian demand continues to grow. In the history of industrial development, East Asia's refining and chemical systems have long been configured around the structural characteristics of Middle Eastern crude oil. Many of the main oil types are medium-quality and contain sulfur, requiring corresponding hydrodesulfurization and deep processing equipment. The supply chain and equipment are highly matched. At the same time, Asia's manufacturing and chemical industry demand is strong, and the demand for petroleum and its derived chemical raw materials has been strong for a long time.
Sanlian Life Weekly: If crude oil prices continue to rise, what impact may it have on the global economy?
Dong Xiucheng:According to the crises caused by long-term high oil prices that have occurred in the world, when energy prices rise, the first thing to rise is the cost of fuel and raw materials in transportation, logistics and factories, and pressure on enterprises comes first. These costs will be passed down layer by layer through freight, packaging, and raw material price increases, and will be reflected in the prices of terminal goods and services after a period of time. When prices continue to rise, the market will expect that it will be more difficult for the central bank to relax and maintain a tighter monetary policy. Interest rates will be unable to come down and financing will be more expensive. As a result, companies will be more cautious about production and expansion, and residents will be more cautious about consumption. In the end, investment and consumption will weaken, and the economies of some countries will face the risk of stagflation (high inflation + low growth).
Sanlian Life Weekly: If the blockade of the strait is lifted, can transportation return to normal levels immediately? Will the increase in insurance premiums caused by the turmoil cause the "de facto suspension of sailings" to continue for a period of time?
Dai Jiaquan: Calculated on a daily basis, when the route from the Middle East to China is normal, the freight cost is less than two US dollars per barrel of oil. But now the shipping fee has suddenly risen to four or five US dollars, doubled. Another one is the risk of war. There is no doubt that if you take this route, commercial risks and war risks will increase significantly. But I think these are not the most important things to consider. Because if you spread it on a barrel of oil, it can actually bear it. If the price of oil really rises, it may be US$10 or US$20 per barrel. In comparison, no matter how expensive the freight is, it will only increase by a few US dollars. The same is true for insurance. A sharp rise in insurance premiums will indeed increase costs and reduce profits, but more importantly, ships may have to stop sailing due to uninsurable problems, which will further exacerbate capacity constraints. The core problem is the lack of resources and supplies. The core problem is the lack of resources and supplies. Ship tracking data shows that on March 1, local time, the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz decreased significantly compared with before.
Sanlian Life Weekly: In addition to the Strait of Hormuz, how much impact does Iran’s own oil exports have on the oil market?
Dai Jiaquan: If Iran's exports are completely interrupted, it will also significantly affect oil prices. In this regard, its influence is much greater than Venezuela, but far less than the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, Iran is still the world's fifth largest oil producer, but its position in the global oil market has declined. In 2025, Iran's crude oil production will be approximately 3.4 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 3.3% of the world's total, and its seaborne oil exports will be 2.138 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 3% of global oil w88 volume. Among them, crude oil/condensate was 1.682 million barrels/day, accounting for approximately 4% of global crude oil w88 volume; petroleum product exports were 456,000 barrels/day, accounting for approximately 1.7% of global oil product w88 volume. The current global oil market supply exceeds demand by about 2 million barrels per day. If Iran's oil exports are completely interrupted, the international oil market may face a shortage of supply in the short term, thus pushing up oil prices.
Sanlian Life Weekly: Which industries will be the first to feel pressure from high oil prices?
Dai Jiaquan: Prices can reflect this. We have seen a sharp rise in domestic refined oil prices and petrochemical product prices, which means that the related transportation and chemical industries are the first to feel the changes in crude oil prices. This response is very timely. Dong Xiucheng: High oil prices are often the first to hit industries where fuel consumption accounts for a high proportion of costs and where it is difficult to replace them quickly. Aviation is the most sensitive. Planes can only use jet fuel, and there is no large-scale alternative fuel in the short term; and fuel often accounts for a large part of airline operating costs. Next are shipping, heavy trucks and engineering machinery. Ocean-going ships, long-distance freight, mining and construction site equipment mainly rely on fuel/diesel. Electricity is advancing slowly. When oil prices rise, freight and engineering costs will be the first to be raised. The third category is the petrochemical industry, such as plastics, chemical fibers, synthetic rubber, coatings, solvents, etc. Rising oil prices will push up the cost of upstream raw materials, which will be transmitted down the consumer goods chain such as packaging, daily chemicals, textiles, and home appliance casings. However, the transmission speed will vary depending on supply, demand and inventory. Infrastructure and roads will also be affected: rising asphalt prices and fuel costs will increase the costs of road construction, maintenance, construction and transportation.
Sanlian Life Weekly: China has been undergoing energy structure transformation in recent years. The proportion of oil in terminal energy consumption continues to decline. How important is oil today?
Dong Xiucheng:Petroleum currently has two main uses: half is burned as transportation fuel, and the other half is used as raw material for chemical industry. The changes in the past few years have been obvious: transportation fuels such as gasoline and diesel for automobiles have almost peaked in China - statistics from some research institutions believe that refined oil consumption will peak in 2023, and then begin to slowly decline. But this does not mean that petroleum is no longer important, because its raw material properties are becoming stronger: more and more petroleum is not burned, but used to make chemical products such as plastics, chemical fibers, rubber, and coatings. According to estimates, by around 2030, the proportion of oil used in chemical raw materials may rise to about one-third. In general, oil's role as a fuel is shrinking and its role as a raw material is rising. Especially in areas such as aviation, shipping, and heavy trucks that are difficult to electrify in the short term, as well as in many chemical and new material sectors, oil will still be difficult to completely replace for a long time.
Dai Jiaquan: In energy consumption, the importance of oil is beyond doubt. Despite my country's rapid energy transformation, oil still accounts for 18% of our country's primary energy consumption, and more than 70% of the supply depends on imports. In recent years, the consumption of gasoline and diesel in transportation has been declining, but the demand for petroleum in the petrochemical field is growing rapidly. Raw materials such as ethylene extracted from petroleum are the source of various downstream petrochemical products such as chemical fiber, plastics, and rubber. They are also the main source of new materials such as EVA and POE necessary for the development of photovoltaics, as well as separators for power batteries. In the past decade, domestic ethylene equivalent consumption has been maintaining a rapid growth level, becoming the main driving force for oil demand. Moreover, China's total consumption is still very large - its annual oil consumption is about 750-770 million tons, making it the world's second largest oil consumer.
Sanlian Life Weekly: This impact has allowed us to re-see the role of Middle Eastern oil in the global energy system?
Dai Jiaquan: I think the importance of oil in the Middle East and its status in the world may increase in the future. After the success of the shale revolution, oil production in the United States rose and it changed from an importing country to an exporting country. Over the past decade or so, most of the increase in global oil demand has been accounted for by U.S. production. Oil-producing countries such as the Middle East have had to reduce production together to maintain the balance of market supply and demand, and their market share has declined. However, as the increase in U.S. oil production begins to come to an end, the importance of Middle East oil in global supply will rebound.
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