(Source: China-Singapore Jingwei 2026-03-04)
After the United States and Israel raided Iran, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing sharp fluctuations in global financial markets.
Wind shows that since February 28, the international gold price has fluctuated. On March 3, London gold fell below US$5,000 per ounce, hitting US$4,995.475 per ounce; COMEX gold fell sharply, hitting US$5,005 per ounce. On March 4, London gold and COMEX gold rebounded slightly, returning to above $5,100 as of press time.
On the other hand, the price of oil, which is also a safe-haven asset, continues to soar. As of the close on March 3, the price of light crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $3.33 to close at $74.56 per barrel, an increase of 4.67%; the price of London Brent crude oil futures for May delivery rose by $3.66 to close at $81.40 per barrel, an increase of 4.71%.
Why does gold fluctuate and oil soar?
Dong Xiucheng, Executive Dean of the China International Carbon Neutral Economic Research Institute, w88 casinoIn an interview with China-Singapore Jingwei on the 4th, he said, “The Strait of Hormuz is the lifeline of global energy. The inability of oil to flow out creates a de facto gap. The capital market predicts that oil prices may skyrocket, so it invests funds. This is not just market risk pricing. It mainly depends on whether the Strait of Hormuz is really open. If not, oil cannot be shipped out and prices will not go down. It can be said that if things cannot be eased, oil prices will most likely continue to rise. Oil prices will fluctuate, but the trend will definitely be upward. ”
According to the US Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC), the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important oil bottlenecks in the world. About 20% of global crude oil consumption is exported through this waterway. Commodity strategists on Wall Street have warned that oil prices could soar above $100 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for an extended period of time.
Longzhong Information crude oil analyst Wu Yan recently told China-Singapore Jingwei that more than 90% of the crude oil exported by major Gulf oil-producing countries needs to be completed through the Strait of Hormuz. "If the shutdown continues, it will theoretically disrupt the supply of 15 million to 18.5 million barrels of crude oil per day, accounting for about 10% of global crude oil supply. In the short term, if the blockade lasts for 1 to 4 weeks, it will directly form a supply gap of 15 million to 20 million barrels per day, and the global crude oil market will quickly turn from oversupply to severe shortage. ”
Looking ahead to the market outlook,Dong Xiuchengbelieves, “If the crisis in the Middle East is resolved and the Strait of Hormuz becomes unblocked again, oil prices will definitely fall. Because there is no shortage in terms of supply and demand, supply capacity is greater than the growth of consumer demand, and there is no motivation to maintain high oil prices.”
Dong XiuchengFurther added, "From a fundamental perspective of supply and demand, before the conflict broke out, oil prices were relatively high, implying a geopolitical premium. To put it bluntly this time, the geopolitical premium is even higher."
Attachment: Original link
