(Source: China News Network March 3, 2026)
When the United States and Iran go to war, Japan will not be able to hold on.
The Strait of Hormuz, an important global energy hub, has been blocked, almost cutting off the "lifeline" of Japan's economy.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated on the 3rd that the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism has issued a notice to the Japanese Ship Owners Association, reminding Japanese ships not to enter the Persian Gulf for the time being, and if they are already in the gulf, they should berth in a safe place.
The news was reflected in the capital market, and the Tokyo stock market fell sharply for two consecutive days.
On March 3, the two major stock indexes in the Tokyo stock market both closed down by more than 3%, the largest single-day decline this year. All 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange fell.
Citigroup downgraded Japanese stocks for a straightforward reason: Japanese stocks tend to underperform when oil prices rise.
"Japan is highly dependent on oil imported from the Middle East, and the escalation of previous conflicts in the Middle East has had a great impact on the Japanese economy."Wu Yingjie, researcher at the Japan Research Center of the w88 casinoXiang Sanlihe said that if transportation in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, it will have a long-term impact on the Japanese stock market and economy.
About 90% of Japan’s crude oil imports come from the Middle East. This means that everything from the operation of factory assembly lines and the power supply to every household to the flow of goods and economic operations of the entire society are closely related to this strait.
Nomura Research Institute economist Nobuhiro Kiuchi estimates that if the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked, the price of WTI crude oil will rise to US$140 per barrel, causing Japanese oil prices to rise by more than 1% within a year. If the situation worsens, Japan's GDP may fall by up to 0.65% or even fall into recession.
The Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK) quoted analysis as saying that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, the Japanese economy will suffer a "fatal blow" and GDP may be reduced by three percentage points.
The storm is spreading from the sea.
The decline in bank stocks reflects the fragility and uncertainty of Japan's financial environment.
On the 2nd, the Bank of Japan Sector Index fell 6.3%, the largest decline since April last year, seriously dragging down the Topix Index. Naoki Fujiwara, senior fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management, believes that investors' influx into safe-haven assets will lead to a decline in Japan's long-term government bond yields, putting pressure on bank stocks.
The weakness in airline stocks directly reflects the dual pressures of costs and demand.
Japan Airlines’ stock price fell by more than 7% on the 3rd, and All Nippon Airways fell by more than 3.5%. Jackson, head of Japanese equity strategy at Ortus Advisors, believes that "wars have always been bad for civil aviation, and rising oil prices will also suppress demand for air travel."
Besides the financial market, a wider range of shocks are also coming.
Chief researcher Akutagawa Chihiro of Mitsubishi UFJ Market Research Consulting speculated that for every US$10 increase in international oil prices, Japan’s crude oil import costs will increase by approximately 1.3 trillion yen. At the same time, higher oil prices may spread to the agriculture, fisheries and food sectors. Once energy supply is interrupted, the production and logistics of enterprises will also be affected.
With continued inflation, Japanese families have been burdened with a heavy burden.
Wu Yingjie pointed out that if the turmoil continues to push up oil prices, it will intensify Japan’s imported inflationary pressure and weaken the actual effect of the government’s subsidy policy.
To make matters worse, the exchange rate of the yen against the U.S. dollar once fell to the range of 157 yen per U.S. dollar. This is the first time since early February that it has touched the 157 yen level, further pushing up import costs.
As a country that relies heavily on imports of energy, food, raw materials, etc., Japan can only passively bear the risk of overflow from distant straits.
Amidst the crisis and market fluctuations, the Japanese government is still promoting the expansion of its defense capabilities.
At the House of Representatives Budget Committee meeting on the 3rd, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae said that it will accelerate the strengthening of defense capabilities; Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi also further emphasized that he wants to establish a "system that will make the opponent give up the attack."
However, the scale of Japanese government debt is already at a high level and fiscal space is not ample. If resources are further tilted towards the defense field, it will only reduce investment in the economy and people's livelihood, adding more uncertainty to Japan's already clouded economic prospects.
The crisis in the Middle East has once again sounded the alarm: the spillover costs of war never end on the battlefield. If Japan cannot see the harm of war and reflect on its own defense choices, the market shock may be just the beginning.
("Sanlihe" Studio Editor: Cao Zijian)
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