(Source: Daily Economic News 2026-03-24)
According to the National Development and Reform Commission, starting from 24:00 on March 23, the maximum retail prices of domestic gasoline and diesel (standard products) should be increased by 2,205 yuan and 2,120 yuan per ton respectively. After the adjustment, they were actually increased by 1,160 yuan and 1,115 yuan.
Tian Lei, deputy director of the Energy Strategy Center of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, told a reporter from the Daily Economic News (hereinafter referred to as the "Economic Reporter") that recently, affected by the intensification of the conflict between the United States and Iran, crude oil prices in the international market have risen sharply, with price increases in various regions generally exceeding 40%. In particular, crude oil prices in the Middle East have rapidly risen to more than 150 US dollars per barrel, setting new historical highs and increasing by more than 130% compared with before the conflict. The rise in international crude oil prices directly increases my country's import and oil consumption costs.
This time, the state has taken temporary control measures on the price of refined oil. Domestic gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 1,045 yuan and 1,005 yuan per ton, which is equivalent to the national average gasoline and diesel prices rising by about 0.85 yuan per liter. Liu Bingjuan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, further told reporters that after conversion according to the extent of regulation, No. 89 gasoline rose by 0.84 yuan/liter, No. 92 gasoline rose by 0.89 yuan/liter, No. 95 gasoline rose by 0.94 yuan/liter, and diesel rose by 0.95 yuan/liter.
What is the transmission mechanism and pricing principle of my country’s refined oil products? What is the future trend of oil prices? How much impact will the sharp rise in international crude oil prices have on domestic industrial producer prices (PPI) and consumer prices (CPI)? How should my country respond to this round of rising oil prices? Each reporter conducted an in-depth analysis.
92# gasoline in most areas of the countryRetail price limit is 8.4 yuan-8.5 yuan/liter
Since Iran announced its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices have recently staged an epic "roller coaster" market - on March 9, international oil prices soared, exceeding US$100 per barrel. This is the first time that oil prices have exceeded this mark since the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.
On March 9, U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil futures both exceeded $111 per barrel, setting a new high since August 2022, with intraday gains of more than 22% and 19%.
On March 11, international oil prices plummeted, recording the largest single-day drop since 2022.
On March 13, international oil prices resumed their upward trend, and Brent crude oil regained the $100 per barrel mark...
After this round of price adjustments, my country's maximum retail price limit for refined oil products has experienced six rounds of adjustments since 2026: five times it rose and one was stranded.
Liu Bingjuan told reporters that based on the calculation of an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, after this price adjustment, car owners will spend about 44.5 yuan more to fill up a tank of oil; based on the urban fuel consumption of 7L-8L per 100 kilometers, the average cost per 100 kilometers will increase by about 6.68 yuan. For a large logistics transport vehicle with a full load of 50 tons, the average fuel cost increases by about 38 yuan for every 100 kilometers traveled. After the price adjustment, the retail price of No. 92 gasoline in most areas across the country is limited to 8.4 yuan to 8.5 yuan/liter.
Lu Zhichen, deputy director of the Price, Cost and Certification Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters that in recent years, domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted according to the mechanism, with some rising and falling. For example, in 2023, the price of refined oil products will be "10 up, 12 down, 3 unchanged", in 2024, "9 up, 9 down, 7 unchanged", in 2025, "7 up, 12 down, 6 unchanged", and the total of the three years will be "26 up, 33 down, 16 unchanged".
Every reporter also found that, except this time, domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted by more than 1,000 yuan/ton three times in history: On June 20, 2008, the prices of gasoline and diesel were increased by 10 yuan/ton. 00 yuan; on December 19, 2008, the supply prices of gasoline and diesel were reduced by 900 yuan and 1,100 yuan per ton respectively; on March 18, 2020, the prices of gasoline and diesel were reduced by 1,015 yuan and 975 yuan per ton respectively.
Chen Shouhai, director of the Oil and Gas Policy and Legal Research Center of China University of Petroleum (Beijing), said in an interview with reporters that first of all, the price of domestic refined oil has risen simultaneously with the price of international crude oil, proving the better connection between domestic and foreign oil and gas markets. "At the same time, in the context of violent fluctuations in international oil prices, the government has moderately adjusted the range of price adjustments, taking into account market rules and people's livelihood protection, to avoid the excessive impact of large fluctuations in oil prices on people's lives."
Chen Shouhai said that China’s energy price system has experienced similar shocks many times in history. Due to my country's unique market structure, PetroChina, CNOOC, and Sinopec (commonly known as the "three barrels of oil") actually play the role of reservoirs, partially absorbing the drastic changes in international oil and gas market prices, and buffering the impact on the domestic energy price system.
How is domestic refined oil priced?
With the continuous advancement of refined oil price reform in recent years, the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices is directly linked to the trend of the international crude oil market. So, what is the current mechanism for domestic refined oil products?
An oil and gas expert told reporters that domestic refined oil mainly refers to gasoline and diesel. According to relevant regulations, the maximum domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel are adjusted every 10 working days based on changes in crude oil prices in the international market. The core logic of the formation of refined oil prices is very clear, that is, fluctuations in international crude oil prices will be transmitted to the domestic refined oil market through corresponding mechanisms, thereby affecting the terminal selling price of domestic refined oil.
Specific calculation logic: The core basis of pricing is that domestic gasoline and diesel prices are linked to the average price of a basket of international crude oils, and price adjustments are affected by the prices of multiple international crude oils instead of one. The international mainstream quotation system will publish the international crude oil CIF price every working day based on a basket of international crude oil varieties - this price is not the benchmark selling price of crude oil, but the final arrival price after covering the crude oil benchmark price, international freight, insurance and other related expenses.
On the basis of this CIF price, a number of costs and expenses need to be added in sequence, such as port operating expenses after the crude oil arrives, domestic transportation expenses, refinery processing costs, reasonable refinery profits, and current exchange rate conversion costs, etc. After the above-mentioned costs and expenses are superimposed, the ex-factory wholesale price of domestic refined oil will be formed; on this basis, the wholesale and retail price difference is added, which is the terminal retail reference price of domestic refined oil.
It is worth noting that, except for the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, other expenses are mainly fixed values. Therefore, the proportion of international crude oil prices in the final price of refined oil is not fixed and will change dynamically with the fluctuations of international oil prices.
Professor Dong Xiucheng of the w88 casinoFurther told reporters that the price adjustment range of my country's refined oil products is not simply determined by changes in international crude oil prices at individual points in time or on certain days, but rather depends on the comparison of the average price of a basket of international crude oil prices in the 10 working days before the price adjustment and the average price in the 10 working days before the last price adjustment.
Today, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue. If international oil prices continue to rise, will domestic refined oil prices continue to rise?
In order to ensure the relative stability of domestic refined oil prices, my country has long established a clear price control range. In 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Issues Concerning Further Improving the Price Formation Mechanism of Refined Oil Products", which for the first time set a lower limit for the price of refined oil products. Together with the upper limit of refined oil prices that had been set previously, domestic refined oil prices have now formed a "regulatory range", commonly known as the "floor price" and "ceiling price".
Dong XiuchengExplain that my country’s refined oil price regulation sets a lower price limit of US$40/barrel. This regulation means that when the price of crude oil in the international market, on which domestic refined oil prices are linked, is below US$40 per barrel, domestic refined oil prices will no longer be lowered.
When the price of crude oil in the international market reaches the "ceiling price", which is higher than 130 US dollars (inclusive)/barrel, in accordance with the principle of taking into account the interests of producers and consumers and maintaining the smooth operation of the national economy, appropriate fiscal and taxation policies will be adopted to ensure that the production of refined oil and the supply of gasoline and diesel prices will in principle not mention or mention less.
At the same time, in order to alleviate the impact of my country's "three barrels of oil" on the income of bearing price shocks, the country also has supporting interest adjustment mechanisms to balance the interests of all parties.
On March 15, 2006, the State Council issued the "Decision on the Levy of Special Petroleum Income Funds", deciding to levy special petroleum income funds. The Ministry of Finance subsequently issued the "Measures for the Administration of Collection of Special Petroleum Income Funds", which specified the scope, proportion and threshold of collection. In 2006, the threshold for special oil income tax was US$40/barrel; in 2011 and 2014, the threshold was adjusted twice, raised to US$55/barrel and US$65/barrel respectively.
Dong XiuchengExplain to every reporter with an example that if crude oil sells for US$80/barrel, the price difference between it and the threshold must be turned over to a special income tax based on a certain collection ratio. "On the contrary, when crude oil sells for less than 40 US dollars per barrel, my country has a special reserve system, and the portion that should be adjusted but not adjusted will be included in the risk reserve. This reserve is stored in a special account and must be approved by the state when it needs to be used. It is mainly used for energy conservation and emission reduction, improving oil quality and ensuring oil supply security."
What’s different about this round of rising oil prices?How much impact will it have on my country’s CPI and PPI?
Wan Zhe, a professor at Beijing Normal University and a researcher at the Belt and Road Institute, said in an interview with reporters that the previous oil crises were mostly triggered by geopolitical conflicts. The typical transmission chain is: geopolitical conflicts cause supply or expected disruptions → oil prices surge sharply in the short term → financial markets experience fluctuations → rising inflation expectations → economic growth comes under pressure.
Wan Zhe believes that the current round of oil price rise caused by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East is not the same as several oil crises in history. The core variables are the uncertainty of the duration of the war and the degree of closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The current pulse-like rise in oil prices is inevitable, but once the war eases, oil prices may return to normal levels.
“First of all, before the outbreak of the conflict, the global crude oil market had already shown a pattern of slightly oversupply and weak global economic demand, which means that once the regional situation tends to ease, oil prices will lack the foundation to continue to operate at a high level and it will be difficult to maintain a long-term rise.”
Secondly, the global energy structure is undergoing fundamental changes. The traditional development model that is highly dependent on oil has gradually become a thing of the past. Nowadays, the global clean energy transformation continues to advance, the proportion of new energy is increasing rapidly, countries are increasingly less dependent on oil, and the impact of geopolitical conflicts on oil prices is also significantly weaker than before.
Finally, the world’s comprehensive ability to cope with oil price fluctuations has improved significantly compared with the past. In previous periods of violent oil price fluctuations, problems such as insufficient strategic reserves, limited alternative energy options, and lack of response experience were common. However, currently, countries have relatively abundant oil reserves and more diversified energy supplies, which further mitigates the impact of short-term geopolitical events on oil prices.
Wan Zhe also pointed out that under the current background of global energy transformation, the transmission path of high oil price costs has also changed. On the one hand, the development of the digital economy and globalized supply chains has significantly accelerated the transmission of price signals; on the other hand, high oil prices will also accelerate the process of new energy substitution. The transmission structure of oil prices has become more resilient and its impact on the overall economy has also weakened.
The impact of high oil prices is not the oil price itself, but affects the entire supply chain system, causing a chain reaction. How much impact will this rise in oil prices have on my country's consumer price (CPI) and industrial producer price (PPI)?
Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Guangdong Securities and director of the research institute, told reporters that rising oil prices have the most direct impact on my country's PPI, mainly through four channels: first, directly pushing up the ex-factory price of the oil exploration and processing industry; second, vertical transmission along the industrial chain, from basic chemicals to plastics and synthetic rubber. Intermediate products such as glue and fertilizers and terminal industrial products are spreading, and there is a step-by-step decreasing effect in the transmission process; third, the price of coal and other products is pushed up through the energy substitution effect, and the impact is extended to high energy-consuming fields such as electricity, steel, and building materials; fourth, logistics and transportation costs are systematically increased. Since almost all industrial products involve transportation links, this cost increase has a wide-ranging general effect.
In addition, the transmission chain of rising oil prices to CPI is longer than that of PPI, and the impact path is more complex. It mainly includes three channels: First, through the refined oil price linkage mechanism, it directly pushes up the retail price of gasoline and diesel, and drives up the cost of travel services such as taxis, online ride-hailing, express logistics, and air fares; second, the price rise in the middle and upper reaches of PPI The increase is partly transmitted to the ex-factory prices of downstream consumer goods such as plastic products, textiles and clothing, and home appliances. However, the transmission efficiency is restricted by the competition pattern and demand elasticity of the downstream industry. When competition is fierce and inventory is high, transmission blockage is prone to occur. Third, it is indirectly transmitted to food prices by pushing up the prices of fertilizers and pesticides, agricultural machinery fuel costs, agricultural product transportation costs, and food processing and packaging material costs.
Every reporter has also noticed that this year's "Government Work Report" proposed to "promote the overall price level from negative to positive, and consumer prices to rise reasonably and moderately." On the surface, the surge in international oil prices seems to coincide with the policy direction of promoting "a reasonable and moderate recovery in consumer prices." Is this the desired outcome of the policy?
Luo Zhiheng told every reporter that the significance of macroeconomic goals is not in the numbers themselves, but in the real situation of the micro-subjects represented behind the numbers. This year’s GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5% does not pursue output figures based on ineffective investment and inventory backlogs, but rather companies’ initiative to expand investment, residents’ willingness to increase consumption, and the endogenous cycle of the economy to truly turn around. In the same way, the consumer price increase of about 2% does not simply push up prices, but breaks the negative cycle of "low prices - postponed consumption and investment - economic sluggishness" through moderate inflation, making improvement in corporate profits and growth in residents' income a sustainable norm.
“Oil prices pushing up prices seem to be in the same direction as the policy goal of promoting ‘reasonable and moderate recovery in consumer prices’, but in fact there is a clear misalignment, because its essence is cost-push or imported inflation, rather than the demand-pull inflation expected by the policy.” Luo Zhiheng said.
The next round of refined oil price adjustment is more likely to increase
How should our country respond to this round of rising oil prices? Chen Shouhai believes that we should be optimistic. "First of all, from the perspective of the overall national energy supply, my country's crude oil production remains stable and natural gas production grows steadily. It can meet the basic needs of domestic oil and natural gas, and it also has the ability to cope with extreme situations."
Secondly, our country has considerable oil reserves. It is mainly divided into two categories: national strategic reserves and commercial reserves. Strategic petroleum reserves are directly controlled by the state. They are mainly used to respond to oil crises or severe oil supply interruptions. They are an important part of the national energy strategy and a key support for ensuring the sustained and stable development of the national economy and society. Commercial reserves include two parts. One is the obligatory reserve, which is the reserve amount clearly stipulated by the state and borne by oil importing or processing enterprises in accordance with the law. The other is the independent reserve of enterprises.
“However, the scale of commercial reserves is relatively small, and the national strategic reserve occupies a core position in the entire reserve system.” Chen Shouhai said that in addition, the popularity of new energy vehicles and the continued development of renewable energy in my country have also effectively reduced the rigid demand for oil and gas.
According to Longzhong Information’s prediction, looking forward to the market outlook, the conflict between the United States and Iran is still anxious, the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, many oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq have significantly reduced production, supply risks are increasing, and market concerns have not substantively eased. Overall, it is expected that the next round of refined oil price increases will be more likely.
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